Game date: November 23, 2025 | 1:00 PM ET | Bears 31, Steelers 28 | Bets: 2-0
Week 12 delivered one of the most dramatic and entertaining matchups of the 2025 NFL season, as the Chicago Bears outlasted the Pittsburgh Steelers 31 to 28 in a game defined by explosive plays, wild momentum swings, and clutch quarterback play. This showdown did more than just shake up the NFC and AFC playoff pictures. It also showcased a flawless performance from NextBetz, the real-time, in-game betting guidance system, which went a perfect 2 to 0 on its drive-based scoring forecasts.
With offensive fireworks, defensive gut punches, and a finish that kept both sidelines on edge until the final seconds, this game quickly became one of the most rewatched matchups of the year. Below is a full drive-by-drive expansion that adds depth, statistics, and context to every major highlight.
A Fast Start Sets the Tone for a Shootout
From the opening kickoff, both offenses wasted zero time establishing a high scoring pace. Chicago struck first with a sharp, well executed 5-yard touchdown pass from Caleb Williams to DJ Moore.
The Bears marched confidently on that opening drive, showcasing a balanced attack built around tempo and pre-snap motion. Williams completed five of his first six passes, and Moore’s footwork near the boundary created just enough separation to secure the early score. Moore, who has been one of the most reliable playmakers in the league, finished the day with over 85 receiving yards and two critical catches on third down.
But the Steelers fired back immediately. Pittsburgh leaned heavily on a physical run scheme anchored by their offensive line, and DK Metcalf punched in a short rushing touchdown to tie the game. Yes, the moment surprised many, because Metcalf is best known as a wide receiver, but Pittsburgh used him creatively near the goal line as a motion back and power runner, showing just how much versatility they squeezed out of their offensive personnel.
That quick response set the tone. Fans realized they were in for a heavyweight exchange.
Second Quarter: Betting Prediction 1 Hits and Momentum Swings Wildly
The second quarter brought the first major turning point and the first successful scoring prediction from our betting system.
Bet Prediction 1: Touchdown on the Drive Beginning at 8:46
With the game tied and the Bears looking to regain control, NextBetz predicted a touchdown on a drive starting at the 8:46 mark.
Chicago delivered exactly that. Caleb Williams orchestrated one of his best possessions of the afternoon, going 4 for 4 for 56 yards on the drive. His highlight was a beautifully placed 12 yard touchdown pass to tight end Colston Loveland. The route was a seam bender, and Williams hit him in stride between two Steelers defenders. Loveland’s ability to secure the ball through contact made it one of the game’s most impressive scoring plays.
This touchdown not only validated the betting system’s forecast but also reflected Chicago’s growing confidence. Williams already had multiple touchdowns by halftime and crossed the 150-yard passing mark before the break.
Steelers Punch Back With a Defensive Touchdown
Pittsburgh’s response brought one of the game’s wildest moments. With Chicago deep in its own territory, T.J. Watt exploded off the edge, stripping Caleb Williams clean. The ball bounced perfectly into the hands of Nick Herbig, who scooped it and returned it for a defensive touchdown.
Suddenly the scoreboard tightened again, and the Steelers sideline came alive. Watt’s sack was his second of the day, adding to an already impressive season that kept him firmly in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.
Bears End the Half With a Clutch Field Goal
Despite the setback, Chicago regained composure. As the first half closed, kicker Cairo Santos drilled a 47-yard field goal to push the Bears ahead again.
It was a crucial momentum stabilizer with the halftime score still within a single possession.
Third Quarter: Williams and Moore Deliver a Momentum Changing Strike
The third quarter opened with Chicago once again asserting control of the offensive momentum. Caleb Williams continued his outstanding day by launching a 25-yard touchdown strike to DJ Moore.
Moore ran a deep crossing route, Williams threaded the ball between the linebacker and safety, and Moore accelerated untouched for the score. It was Williams’ third touchdown pass and his longest completion of the game. At that point, the rookie quarterback had already surpassed 250 yards through the air and showcased why he had become the centerpiece of Chicago’s offensive renaissance.
Chicago’s offense finished the third quarter with over 330 total yards, while Moore climbed past the 100-yard receiving threshold. Pittsburgh’s secondary struggled to contain him, especially when Chicago used play action to freeze their linebackers.
Fourth Quarter: Steelers Rally Back and the Game Tightens
Despite Chicago’s control through most of the second half, the Steelers refused to fade. Mason Rudolph stepped in for Pittsburgh and delivered one of the most important throws of his career.
Rudolph engineered a fourth-quarter scoring drive capped by a 3-yard touchdown pass to tight end Pat Freiermuth.
This cut the Bears lead to just three points. Pittsburgh’s offense began pushing a much faster tempo, using no huddle and quick outs to counter Chicago’s pass rush. Freiermuth finished the day with five catches, making him Pittsburgh’s most reliable chain mover in the final quarter.
The Steelers nearly forced another turnover late, but a dropped interception on a deep shot by Williams allowed Chicago to maintain possession. The tension in the stadium escalated as both teams traded field position, each possession carrying season defining weight.
Final Minutes: Chicago Protects the Lead and Betting Prediction 2 Seals a Perfect 2 to 0 Day
With just minutes remaining, Chicago leaned on a time-consuming drive to protect the lead. The final critical moment came when NextBetz made its second and final wager.
Bet Prediction 2: The Model Calls the Final Offensive Outcome Correctly
The details of the final prediction are rooted in our betting system’s recognition of situation, momentum, and field position. And once again, the prediction hit.
Chicago executed methodically, draining clock, controlling field position, and preventing Pittsburgh from getting another offensive possession with enough time. The Bears held firm and secured the 31 to 28 victory, completing a perfect 2 to 0 betting performance for NextBetz.
Williams finished the game with over 290 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Moore tallied more than 120 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Chicago’s balanced offense outgained Pittsburgh and earned the decisive stops when it mattered most.
Complete Game Recap: Why This Matchup Stood Out
Several major themes made this contest one of the most compelling of Week 12:
- Caleb Williams delivered a breakout performance with three touchdown passes and exceptional accuracy in the short and intermediate game.
- DJ Moore dominated the Steelers secondary, consistently creating separation and racking up chunk plays.
- Chicago’s defense delivered key stops, despite giving up several big plays late.
- T.J. Watt’s strip sack and Herbig’s fumble return TD gave the Steelers a massive swing.
- The Bears maintained offensive balance and showed resilience after turnovers.
- Our betting system read the game perfectly, hitting both predictions for a 2 to 0 record.
This was the type of game that showcased both teams’ strengths. Chicago’s young franchise quarterback proved he could handle high-pressure moments, while Pittsburgh’s defense once again showed why it’s feared across the league.
Final Thoughts: A Signature Win That Could Shape the Bears’ Season
For the Bears, this wasn’t just a win. It was a statement. Their offense found rhythm, their quarterback played with command and confidence, and their ability to respond after adversity showed real maturity for a young roster. The Steelers walked away frustrated but far from defeated, knowing they matched Chicago punch for punch and nearly completed a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback.
From an analytics standpoint, this matchup also highlighted how impactful drive-based forecasting can be during tight games. Our betting model’s perfect 2 to 0 performance reinforced its ability to read shifts in momentum, offensive efficiency, and late game tendencies.
Want Real Time Scoring Predictions Every Week?
If you love breaking down momentum swings, drive efficiency, and scoring predictions during live football, you can start exploring real-time betting guidance with a NextBetz free trial. Get insights on every drive, increase engagement with every snap, and enjoy every game with another layer of excitement. Get started and bet smarter with NextBetz.com.
