2026-10-24
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Kansas State vs Arizona State market analysis Oct 24: The Setup
Asset: Arizona State Sun Devils (home underdog) | Opening: $0.328 | Spread: KSU -1.5 | Kalshi: —
This Kansas State vs Arizona State market analysis Oct 24 opens with the Sun Devils as a 1.5-point home underdog at Mountain America Stadium, entering at 3-3 while Kansas State arrived at 4-2. The game signal opened at $0.328 for ASU — the market pricing in a KSU win before kickoff.
The Pattern: Underdog Rally — Arizona State absorbed a third-quarter lead change, hit RSI 10.7 at its lowest, then reversed to win 28-17 behind Cardae Mack's four rushing touchdowns.
Going in: At $0.328, ASU needed early scoring momentum to shift the signal; a KSU scoring run extending the deficit would push the game signal toward $0.20 and create a potential entry.
Who Decided It
- Arizona State Sun Devils (4-3): Cardae Mack carried 26 times for 159 yards and four touchdowns — the engine of every ASU scoring drive in the second half.
- Kansas State Wildcats (4-3): Jacob Knuth completed 26 of 41 passes for 194 yards with one touchdown pass to Jaron Tibbs, but was sacked three times in the fourth quarter as the offense stalled when it needed points most.
First Quarter: Early Equilibrium
Outlook check: The opening $0.328 signal suggested KSU control, and the first score confirmed it — but ASU answered immediately, keeping the game tight.
Kansas State opened with a 9-play, 65-yard drive capped by Jaron Tibbs catching a 7-yard touchdown pass from Jacob Knuth at Q1 10:38, pushing ASU's game signal down to $0.201. ASU responded with a 4-play, 77-yard drive in just 50 seconds — Cardae Mack's 9-yard run tied it at 7-7 by Q1 9:48, recovering the signal to $0.317. The quarter ended with both teams exchanging punts and the signal drifting up to $0.445 as ASU held serve.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi ASU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | KSU 0, ASU 0 | $0.328 | — | — |
| Q1 10:38 | Tibbs 7-yd TD catch from Knuth | KSU 7, ASU 0 | $0.201 | — | — |
| Q1 9:48 | Mack 9-yd TD run | KSU 7, ASU 7 | $0.317 | 53.7 | — |
| Q1 0:00 | End Q1 | KSU 7, ASU 7 | $0.445 | 58.8 | — |
Decision Point: Stay Out — Signal Balanced at Quarter End
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ASU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:58 | KSU 0, ASU 0 | $0.319 | 39.2 | bearish cross | — |
Known at the time: A MACD bearish cross fired at Q1 0:58 with the signal at $0.319 and RSI at 39.2 — early in the game with no pattern yet formed. The score was still 0-0 at that moment.
The decision: Stay out. The bearish cross was too early to act on, and the signal had not developed a tradeable setup. Monitor for a deeper oversold condition.
Outlook for the next quarter: A KSU scoring extension or ASU turnover could push the signal below $0.30 and begin building a setup.
Second Quarter: ASU Takes the Lead
Outlook check: The outlook for a deeper oversold entry did not materialize — ASU scored first in Q2, pushing the signal above $0.50.
ASU capped a 9-play drive with Cardae Mack's second rushing touchdown — a 1-yard plunge at Q2 14:16 — moving the game signal to $0.523 and triggering a MACD bullish cross. Kansas State answered with a 7-play drive ending in Luis Rodriguez's 22-yard field goal at Q2 5:47, trimming the deficit to 14-10. Cutter Boley was sacked by Jordan Allen at Q2 0:07, and the half ended with ASU leading 14-10, signal at $0.488.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi ASU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:16 | Mack 1-yd TD run | KSU 7, ASU 14 | $0.523 | 64.6 | — |
| Q2 5:47 | Rodriguez 22-yd FG | KSU 10, ASU 14 | $0.503 | 55.5 | — |
| Q2 0:00 | End Q2 | KSU 10, ASU 14 | $0.488 | 46.5 | — |
Decision Point: Hold — No Oversold Setup
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ASU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:16 | KSU 7, ASU 14 | $0.523 | 64.6 | bullish cross | — |
Known at the time: The MACD bullish cross at Q2 14:16 came with ASU leading and RSI at 64.6 — not an oversold entry condition. The signal was above $0.50 with ASU in front.
The decision: Hold cash. The signal was in neutral territory with no extreme reading to act on. The setup requires a deeper pullback.
Outlook for the next quarter: If KSU scores to retake the lead, watch for RSI to drop below 30 — that would be the first signal of a potential entry.
Third Quarter: The Oversold Entry
Outlook check: The outlook held exactly — KSU scored to retake the lead, RSI collapsed, and the entry triggered.
The third quarter opened with Cutter Boley sacked by Jayden Bryant on the first play, and ASU's offense stalled through three consecutive punts. Kansas State's Sterling Lockett returned a Nick McLarty punt 27 yards to the ASU 21 at Q3 10:01, setting up a short field. RSI had already dropped to 28.3 on that play. Jacob Knuth then capped a 4-play, 21-yard drive with a 10-yard touchdown run at Q3 7:59, giving KSU a 17-14 lead and sending ASU's game signal to $0.309 with RSI at 17.0 — deeply oversold.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi ASU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 10:01 | McLarty punt, Lockett 27-yd return | KSU 10, ASU 14 | $0.402 | 28.3 | — |
| Q3 7:59 | Knuth 10-yd TD run | KSU 17, ASU 14 | $0.309 | 17.0 | — |
| Q3 0:00 | End Q3 | KSU 17, ASU 14 | $0.477 | 79.6 | — |
Decision Point: ENTRY — Long ASU at $0.309
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ASU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 7:59 | KSU 17, ASU 14 | $0.309 | 17.0 | hist -1.62 | — |
Known at the time: Jacob Knuth's 10-yard touchdown run put KSU ahead 17-14. The game signal dropped to $0.309, RSI hit 17.0 — extreme oversold territory. MACD histogram was at -1.62, still negative but the signal had reached a level consistent with a reversal setup. ASU trailed by three with roughly 8 minutes left in the third.
The decision: Enter long ASU at $0.309. The RSI reading of 17.0 on a 3-point deficit with a full quarter remaining represented a significant dislocation between momentum and game state.
Outlook for the next quarter: A KSU stop and ASU scoring drive would confirm the entry. A KSU touchdown extension would pressure the position.
Fourth Quarter: The Reversal and Close
Outlook check: The entry held — ASU scored on its next possession and never trailed again.
Cardae Mack's 12-yard touchdown run at Q4 14:55 gave ASU a 21-17 lead, pushing the game signal to $0.576 and RSI to 86.5 — overbought. KSU drove to the ASU 44 but turned it over on downs at Q4 11:21, where a bearish RSI divergence appeared: the game signal made a higher high at $0.724 but RSI printed 80.4, below the prior peak of 87.3. Jake Fette was sacked by Jordan Allen for 13 yards at Q4 11:21, and ASU punted. After a KSU three-and-out, Jalen Moss returned Simon McClannan's punt 18 yards to the ASU 35 at Q4 8:53, setting up ASU's next drive.
Decision Point: ENTRY — Long ASU at $0.869 (Trade 2)
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ASU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 8:53 | KSU 17, ASU 21 | $0.869 | 79.4 | hist +0.80 | — |
Known at the time: Jake Fette completed a deep pass to Reed Harris for 22 yards to the KSU 11 on the play that set this entry. The game signal was $0.869, RSI 79.4, MACD histogram positive at +0.80. ASU led by four with under 9 minutes left and had the ball in KSU territory.
The decision: Enter long ASU at $0.869. The signal had pulled back from its Q4 14:55 peak and ASU held possession in scoring position.
Cardae Mack's 11-yard touchdown run at Q4 6:23 extended the lead to 28-17, pushing the signal to $0.961. Julian Hugo sacked Knuth for 10 yards at Q4 5:11, forcing a turnover on downs. Trade 2 exited at Q4 2:57 at $0.950 when Jake Fette's pass was intercepted by JoJo Scott — though a KSU holding penalty negated the play. Trade 1 exited at game's end, Q4 0:00, at $0.950 as ASU closed out the 28-17 win.
Decision Point: EXIT Trade 2 — Long ASU +9.3%
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ASU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2:57 | KSU 17, ASU 28 | $0.950 | 80.0 | hist -0.45 | — |
Known at the time: ASU led 28-17 with under 3 minutes left. The game signal was $0.950, RSI 80.0, MACD histogram turning slightly negative at -0.45. The exit signal triggered here.
The decision: Exit Trade 2 at $0.950 for +9.3%. The position had run its course with the game effectively decided.
Decision Point: EXIT Trade 1 — Long ASU +207.7%
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ASU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | KSU 17, ASU 28 | $0.950 | 79.8 | hist -1.06 | — |
Known at the time: Final whistle. ASU won 28-17. Trade 1, entered at $0.309 in Q3, exited at $0.950 at game's end.
The decision: Exit Trade 1 at $0.950 for +207.7%. The underdog rally completed in full.
Final Accounting
This Kansas State vs Arizona State market analysis Oct 24 produced two completed long positions on Arizona State.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long ASU | $0.309 (Q3 7:59) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +207.7% |
| 2 | Long ASU | $0.869 (Q4 8:53) | $0.950 (Q4 2:57) | +9.3% |
| Average | +108.5% |
Underdog Rally in This Game
The Kansas State vs Arizona State market analysis Oct 24 shows a clear Underdog Rally: ASU opened at $0.328 as the home underdog, absorbed a third-quarter lead change that drove RSI to 10.7, then reversed completely to win 28-17. The Underdog Rally pattern describes a scenario where the underdog is bought at a depressed game signal, its momentum recovers, and it goes on to win — here, Cardae Mack's four rushing touchdowns were the engine of that recovery, turning a $0.309 entry into a +207.7% return. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#underdog-rally).
This Kansas State vs Arizona State market analysis Oct 24 demonstrates how a 3-point deficit with 8 minutes remaining can produce an RSI reading of 17.0 — and why that dislocation, not the scoreboard, is where the market analysis begins.
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