Washington State Cougars Double Bottom: $0.279 and $0.188 Entries Averaged +47.6% Return

2026-10-31

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Washington State vs San Diego State market analysis Oct 31: The Setup

Asset: Washington State Cougars (road underdog) | Opening: $0.453 | Spread: WSU +2.5 | Kalshi: 40/43c

Washington State vs San Diego State market analysis Oct 31 opens with the Cougars priced at $0.453 — nearly a coin flip despite arriving at Snapdragon Stadium at 1-7, facing a 3-5 SDSU squad that held a modest 2.5-point home edge. Owen Eshelman carried the Cougars' offense on his arm and legs all season, and the spread implied a close game where any early momentum swing could create a tradeable dislocation.

The Pattern: Double Bottom — WSU's game signal dipped to oversold territory twice, bounced each time, and the two separate long entries captured the recovery legs before the final deficit proved too large to overcome.

Going in: At $0.453, WSU was a slight underdog; a buy signal would require the price to drop further into oversold territory with RSI confirmation before the position made sense.

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Who Decided It

• San Diego State Aztecs (4-5): Javion Kinnard ran for two touchdowns (17 carries, 87 yards), and Cooper DiLeva converted both field goal attempts (36 and 45 yards) to provide the margin.
• Washington State Cougars (1-8): Eshelman completed 30 of 42 passes for 299 yards and added two rushing touchdowns, but one interception — picked by Kai Wallin in the second quarter — proved costly, and three late sacks killed the final drive.

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First Quarter: Early Pressure

Outlook check: The opening $0.453 price suggested a near-even contest; that held for roughly the first possession before SDSU's ground game shifted the balance.

WSU's first drive — 11 plays, 54 yards — stalled on downs at Q1 10:32. SDSU answered with an 8-play, 79-yard march capped by Javion Kinnard's 9-yard touchdown run at Q1 7:27, pushing WSU's game signal to $0.281 with RSI at 18.5 — deep oversold. WSU responded with a 9-play, 75-yard drive of their own, Eshelman punching it in from 4 yards at Q1 2:19 to tie the game at 7-7. RSI climbed back through 70 on that score, briefly overbought. The quarter ended level at $0.393, RSI 49.4.

Decision Point: Hold — No Entry Yet

Known at the time: The quarter ended tied. RSI had touched 18.5 after Kinnard's first score but recovered quickly. The MACD bullish cross at Q1 4:08 and RSI's exit from oversold at Q1 5:43 were encouraging, but the game signal had already bounced to $0.393 — no oversold entry remained.

The decision: Stay out. The price recovered before a clean entry formed; the setup required a second dip to confirm the double bottom structure.

Outlook for the next quarter: A WSU buy signal would require the price to drop back toward the $0.28 area with RSI confirming oversold conditions again.

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Second Quarter: First Entry

Outlook check: The outlook called for a second dip — it arrived immediately.

SDSU opened a drive from their own 21 at Q1 2:13 and finished it at Q2 12:34 with Kinnard's second touchdown, a 10-yard run that put SDSU up 14-7. The game signal fell to $0.279, RSI at 26.0 — a bullish divergence (RSI 26.0 vs. the prior low of 21.9) and a double-bottom pattern both fired at this clock. WSU answered with a 12-play, 64-yard drive ending in Kirby Vorhees's 2-yard touchdown run at Q2 6:19, tying the game at 14-14 and pushing the game signal to $0.429, RSI 71.4 — overbought. SDSU then drove 47 yards for a Cooper DiLeva 36-yard field goal at Q2 3:16 (WSU 14, SDSU 17). Eshelman's interception — picked by Kai Wallin at Q2 1:49 — triggered a MACD bearish cross and dropped the signal to $0.328. The half ended at $0.340.

Decision Point: Entry — Long WSU at $0.279

Known at the time: Kinnard's second touchdown just dropped WSU to $0.279. RSI at 26.0 was oversold and showed a higher low than the prior trough of 21.9 — a bullish divergence. A double-bottom pattern also confirmed at this clock. MACD histogram was negative at −0.98, but the RSI structure was the primary signal.

The decision: Long WSU at $0.279 (Kalshi ask 27c). The double-bottom and bullish divergence aligned at the same clock, providing the entry trigger the first quarter lacked.

Decision Point: Exit — Long WSU +53.5%

Known at the time: Vorhees's touchdown tied the game. RSI hit 71.4 — overbought — and MACD histogram turned positive at +1.33. The game signal had moved from $0.279 to $0.429.

The decision: Exit Long WSU at $0.429 (Kalshi bid 40c). RSI overbought with MACD confirming upward momentum exhaustion; the position returned +53.5% on the game signal.

Outlook for the next quarter: WSU trailed by 3 at half. A second entry would require another drop into oversold territory with RSI confirmation.

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Third Quarter: Second Entry

Outlook check: The outlook called for another oversold dip — SDSU's defense and ground game delivered it.

Jaylen Thomas intercepted Stone Saunders at Q3 14:01, but a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty on Kaden Beatty wiped out the field position. WSU's next drive went four plays and turned the ball over on downs at Q3 12:30, where a MACD bearish cross fired. SDSU then drove 43 yards for Cooper DiLeva's second field goal, a 45-yarder at Q3 8:25 (WSU 14, SDSU 20). WSU ran a 13-play drive that ended in a missed 53-yard Jack Stevens field goal attempt at Q3 1:58. Krishna Clay's sack of Eshelman for −14 yards at Q3 2:05 triggered another MACD bearish cross. The game signal closed the quarter at $0.153, RSI 32.6.

Decision Point: Entry — Long WSU at $0.188

Known at the time: Lucky Sutton's 11-yard run extended SDSU's drive with WSU trailing 20-14. The game signal had fallen to $0.188 with RSI at 23.8 — deeply oversold, matching the structure of the first entry. This was the second bottom of the double-bottom pattern. This Washington State vs San Diego State market analysis Oct 31 identified this as the second entry trigger.

The decision: Long WSU at $0.188 (Kalshi ask 30c). RSI oversold at 23.8 with the game signal at its second major trough — the double-bottom structure was forming.

Outlook for the next quarter: Exit signal would be RSI reaching overbought territory. A MACD bullish cross would add confirmation.

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Fourth Quarter: Exit and Collapse

Outlook check: The second entry needed RSI to recover to overbought — SDSU scored first, pushing WSU to its deepest deficit before the bounce arrived.

SDSU's 15-play, 65-yard drive ended with Bert Emanuel Jr.'s 2-yard touchdown pass to Jackson Ford at Q4 9:47, extending the lead to 26-14. The two-point conversion failed. WSU's game signal collapsed to $0.051, RSI 33.7 — RSI exited oversold at this clock. Then at Q4 9:24, Eshelman completed a 10-yard pass to Kirby Vorhees for a first down; the MACD histogram turned positive (+1.59) and RSI hit 70.2 — overbought. WSU then drove 67 yards in seven plays for Eshelman's second rushing touchdown at Q4 6:55 (WSU 20, SDSU 26), but the PAT failed. Three late sacks — by Djibril Rahman and Gavriel Lightfoot at Q4 3:01, and Sione Hala and Krishna Clay at Q4 1:22 — ended WSU's final drive on downs.

Decision Point: Exit — Long WSU +41.7%

Known at the time: RSI reached 70.2 — overbought — and MACD histogram turned positive at +1.59. The game signal had moved from $0.188 to $0.266. The exit signal matched the same RSI overbought threshold that closed Trade 1.

The decision: Exit Long WSU at $0.266 (Kalshi bid 14c). RSI overbought with MACD confirming; game signal return +41.7%. The Kalshi market priced WSU at 14c bid against a 30c entry ask, reflecting the 12-point deficit — a −53.3% Kalshi return despite the game signal gain.

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Final Accounting

Washington State vs San Diego State market analysis Oct 31 produced two completed long trades on WSU, both exiting on RSI overbought signals.

Average: Game Signal +47.6% | Kalshi -2.6%

The Game Signal return is the model's price; the Kalshi return is what the market paid, buying at the ask and selling at the bid. Trade 1 (+48.1% on Kalshi vs +53.5%) bought at 27c against $0.279 and sold at 40c against $0.429, so Kalshi paid less; Trade 2 (-53.3% on Kalshi vs +41.7%) bought at 30c against $0.188 and sold at 14c against $0.266, so Kalshi paid less.

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Double Bottom in This Game

Washington State vs San Diego State market analysis Oct 31 shows a Double Bottom pattern across two quarters. The pattern describes a team whose game signal dips to oversold territory, bounces, dips again to a comparable low, and bounces a second time — two separate buy opportunities rather than one clean V. Here, WSU's game signal hit $0.279 (RSI 26.0) after Kinnard's second touchdown in Q2, recovered to $0.429 on Vorhees's equalizer, then dropped again to $0.188 (RSI 23.8) in Q3 as SDSU extended the lead to six. The second bounce carried the signal back to $0.266 before the deficit proved insurmountable. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#double-bottom).

This Washington State vs San Diego State market analysis Oct 31 demonstrates how the double bottom structure can generate positive game signal returns even in a losing effort, provided exits are tied to RSI overbought signals rather than game outcome.

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