2026-10-26
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Memphis vs Utah market analysis Oct 26: The Setup
Asset: Utah Jazz (home favorite) | Opening: $0.543 | Spread: UTAH -1.5 | Kalshi: 44/45c
This Memphis vs Utah market analysis Oct 26 opens with Utah installed as a 1.5-point home favorite at the Delta Center, carrying a 1-2 record against Memphis's unbeaten 3-0 start. The Jazz had home-court advantage but faced a Grizzlies squad that had not lost yet in 2026-27. Cedric Coward and Cameron Boozer gave Memphis a versatile frontcourt capable of punishing Utah's interior defense.
The Pattern: Dead Cat Bounce — Utah's game signal collapsed from a Q1 peak of $0.664 to a Q3 low of $0.037, with three tradeable bounces along the way, each sold before the next leg down, as Memphis ultimately won 110-105.
Going in: Utah opened at $0.543, reflecting a narrow home edge; a sustained run by the Jazz to reclaim the lead would validate a long entry, while continued Memphis scoring would confirm the collapse.
Who Decided It
- Memphis Grizzlies (4-0): Cedric Coward (16 pts, 11 reb) and Ty Jerome (15 pts, 8 ast) controlled tempo; Jerami Grant added 13 points on 3-of-4 from three.
- Utah Jazz (1-3): Keyonte George led with 26 points, but Utah shot 0-for-3 from three with George and got nothing from Lauri Markkanen (6 minutes, 2 points) after an early foul situation.
First Quarter: Favorite Peaks and Collapses
Outlook check: The opening outlook called for Utah to sustain pressure — it did not hold. Utah briefly led by 4 before a Memphis 10-0 run erased the advantage.
Utah's game signal climbed to $0.664 at Q1 6:34 after Keyonte George's 14-foot pullup made it 13-9 — RSI hit 81.7, the session's overbought peak. Memphis called a full timeout. The signal had nowhere to go but down. Cam Spencer's 25-foot running pullup at Q1 3:56 tied the lead at 17-18 and RSI plunged to 27.4. GG Jackson's driving dunk at Q1 3:30 pushed Memphis ahead, and Kyle Filipowski's turnover at Q1 3:12 drove RSI to 14.8 — the deepest oversold reading of the game. Quinten Post's three at Q1 2:26 extended the Memphis lead to 23-17. By Q1 0:01, Scotty Pippen Jr.'s free throws made it 29-21 and Utah's signal sat at $0.285.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi UTAH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:45 | George 14-ft pullup (peak) | MEM 9, UTAH 13 | $0.639 | 76.3 | 54/55c |
| Q1 3:56 | Spencer 25-ft pullup (lead change) | MEM 18, UTAH 17 | $0.533 | 27.4 | 46/47c |
| Q1 3:12 | Filipowski turnover | MEM 20, UTAH 17 | $0.453 | 14.8 | 36/37c |
| Q1 2:26 | Post 26-ft three | MEM 23, UTAH 17 | $0.395 | 19.4 | 36/37c |
| Q1 0:01 | Pippen Jr. free throw | MEM 29, UTAH 21 | $0.285 | 27.5 | 30/31c |
Decision Point: Stay Out — Q1 Signals Too Early
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi UTAH bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | MEM 30, UTAH 21 | $0.294 | 37.0 | negative | 30/31c |
Known at the time: Utah trailed by 9 at the quarter break. RSI had been as low as 14.8 but was recovering toward 37. The MACD had crossed bearish at Q1 2:26 and remained negative. No entry signal had met the minimum 5-minute development threshold before the quarter ended.
The decision: Stay out. The signal was still falling and no confirmed bounce had formed.
Outlook for Q2: A continued Memphis run would push Utah's signal toward extreme oversold territory — a potential entry zone if RSI divergence appeared.
Second Quarter: Three Entries, Two Exits
Outlook check: The outlook for extreme oversold conditions was correct. Utah's signal fell to $0.127 by Q2 7:46 — a 15-point deficit at 45-30.
Jerami Grant's 22-foot three at Q2 10:41 pushed Memphis ahead 37-25 and Utah's signal dropped to $0.228 with RSI at 27.5 — the Memphis vs Utah market analysis Oct 26 first entry trigger. Grant added another three at Q2 8:55 (44-30), but RSI printed a higher low of 27.9 versus the prior 19.2, a bullish divergence. A second divergence followed at Q2 7:46 (RSI 30.1 vs. 27.9). Then Utah's bench responded: an 8-0 run from Q2 7:32 to Q2 5:55 — Keyonte George free throws, Mo Bamba's layup, Ace Bailey's three, and Isaiah Collier's two-pointer — drove RSI to 88.7, the session's overbought extreme. Jaylen Wells's shooting foul at Q2 3:53 marked the exit as RSI hit 70.7.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi UTAH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:41 | Grant 22-ft three (entry) | MEM 37, UTAH 25 | $0.228 | 27.5 | 22/23c |
| Q2 8:55 | Grant 27-ft three | MEM 44, UTAH 30 | $0.177 | 34.6 | 18/19c |
| Q2 5:55 | Collier two-pointer (RSI peak) | MEM 45, UTAH 38 | $0.308 | 88.7 | 29/30c |
| Q2 3:53 | Wells shooting foul (exit/re-entry) | MEM 49, UTAH 40 | $0.316 | 70.7 | 28/29c |
Decision Point 1: Entry — Long UTAH at Q2 10:41
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi UTAH bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:41 | MEM 37, UTAH 25 | $0.228 | 27.5 | -1.08 | 22/23c |
Known at the time: Jerami Grant's three made it a 12-point Memphis lead. Utah's signal had fallen to $0.228, RSI was deeply oversold at 27.5, and MACD histogram sat at -1.08. The spread implied Utah should be closer to 50 cents; at 22.8% the signal was far below that baseline.
The decision: Enter long UTAH. The extreme oversold reading against the spread's expected price created the entry. Kalshi ask: 23c.
Outlook for exit: Exit when RSI reaches overbought territory on the bounce.
Decision Point 2: Exit Trade 1 / Enter Trade 2 — Q2 3:53
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi UTAH bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 3:53 | MEM 49, UTAH 40 | $0.316 | 70.7 | +0.59 | 28/29c |
Known at the time: Jaylen Wells's shooting foul halted Utah's run. RSI had climbed to 70.7 — overbought — and MACD histogram turned positive at +0.59. The signal had moved from $0.228 to $0.316, a +38.6% gain. Immediately after, Keyonte George made the first of two free throws, pushing the signal to $0.323 with RSI at 72.1 and MACD at +0.70.
The decision: Exit Trade 1 (+38.6%) and immediately re-enter long UTAH at $0.323. The signal remained well below fair value and RSI's overbought reading on a still-large deficit suggested more bounce potential. Kalshi exit bid: 28c (+21.7%). Kalshi re-entry ask: 24c.
Outlook for Q3: Utah needed to keep cutting into the deficit; a Memphis counter-run would reset the signal lower and potentially trigger a third entry.
Third Quarter: The Deepest Dip
Outlook check: The Q2 outlook was correct — Memphis did counter. Utah briefly pulled within 2 (56-58) before Memphis extended to a 16-point lead.
Mo Bamba's tip shot at Q3 11:39 and Keyonte George's step-back at Q3 10:49 completed an 11-0 Utah run, pulling the score to 56-58 and pushing the signal to $0.445 — Trade 2's exit point, RSI at 74.9. Cedric Coward's three at Q3 10:32 immediately answered (61-57), and a MACD bearish cross fired. Memphis then scored 7 straight: Jaylen Wells's two-pointer at Q3 8:16 pushed the lead to 68-59 and RSI fell to 18.0. Quinten Post's back-to-back buckets at Q3 2:34 and Q3 2:02, plus Cedric Coward's three at Q3 1:40, produced a 9-0 Memphis run that stretched the lead to 87-71 — Utah's signal collapsed to $0.037.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi UTAH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 10:49 | George step-back (exit T2) | MEM 58, UTAH 56 | $0.445 | 74.9 | 31/32c |
| Q3 8:16 | Wells two-pointer | MEM 68, UTAH 59 | $0.230 | 18.0 | 25/26c |
| Q3 3:22 | Post 7-ft two (entry T3) | MEM 78, UTAH 68 | $0.160 | 34.1 | 16/17c |
| Q3 1:40 | Coward 25-ft running jump (low) | MEM 87, UTAH 71 | $0.037 | 24.5 | 10/11c |
Decision Point 3: Exit Trade 2 / Enter Trade 3 — Q3 10:49 and Q3 3:22
Exit Trade 2 at Q3 10:49:
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi UTAH bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 10:49 | MEM 58, UTAH 56 | $0.445 | 74.9 | +0.27 | 31/32c |
Known at the time: George's step-back made it a 2-point game. RSI hit 74.9 — overbought — and the signal had moved from $0.323 to $0.445, a +37.8% gain. Kalshi exit bid: 31c (+29.2%).
The decision: Exit Trade 2 (+37.8%). RSI overbought on a still-negative score differential signaled the bounce was spent.
Entry Trade 3 at Q3 3:22:
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi UTAH bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 3:22 | MEM 78, UTAH 68 | $0.160 | 34.1 | -0.79 | 16/17c |
Known at the time: Quinten Post's 7-foot two made it a 10-point Memphis lead. Utah's signal had fallen back to $0.160, well below the spread-implied fair value. RSI at 34.1 was approaching oversold territory. Kalshi ask: 17c.
The decision: Enter long UTAH at $0.160. The signal's distance from fair value and the approaching oversold RSI reading justified a third entry.
Outlook for Q4: Exit when RSI reaches overbought on the next bounce; do not hold through a late-game collapse.
Fourth Quarter: Final Bounce, Final Exit
Outlook check: The Q3 outlook held — Utah mounted another bounce, and the exit came before the final Memphis close.
Josh Green's layup and free throw at Q4 11:10 started a Utah run. Mo Bamba's alley-oop dunk at Q4 10:48 made it 81-89, RSI climbing to 75.2. Jerami Grant's three at Q4 10:23 pushed Memphis back to 92-81, but Utah kept coming: a 9-0 run from Q4 8:03 to Q4 5:31 — Josh Green's three, Ace Bailey's free throws, Mo Bamba's dunk — cut the deficit to 95-98. Keyonte George's 8-foot pullup at Q4 9:15 had already triggered the exit at $0.239 with RSI at 75.5. Utah eventually pulled within 1 (101-102) at Q4 3:37, but Ty Jerome's back-to-back mid-range jumpers at Q4 2:44 and Q4 2:15 sealed it. Final: MEM 110, UTAH 105.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi UTAH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 10:48 | Bamba alley-oop | MEM 89, UTAH 81 | $0.142 | 75.2 | 15/16c |
| Q4 9:15 | George 8-ft pullup (exit T3) | MEM 92, UTAH 85 | $0.239 | 75.5 | 19/20c |
| Q4 3:37 | George floater (Utah within 1) | MEM 102, UTAH 101 | $0.345 | 56.1 | 42/43c |
| Q4 0:00 | Final | MEM 110, UTAH 105 | $0.000 | 31.6 | 0/1c |
Decision Point 4: Exit Trade 3 — Q4 9:15
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi UTAH bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 9:15 | MEM 92, UTAH 85 | $0.239 | 75.5 | +1.37 | 19/20c |
Known at the time: Keyonte George's pullup and free throw had Utah within 7. RSI reached 75.5 — overbought — and MACD histogram was positive at +1.37. The signal had moved from $0.160 to $0.239, a +49.4% gain. Kalshi exit bid: 19c (+11.8%).
The decision: Exit Trade 3 (+49.4%). RSI overbought with Memphis still leading by 7 and 9+ minutes remaining. The dead cat bounce had run its course; holding risked giving back gains on the next Memphis counter.
Final Accounting
The Memphis vs Utah market analysis Oct 26 produced three completed long trades on Utah, all exited before the final Memphis close.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Game Signal return | Kalshi entry (ask) | Kalshi exit (bid) | Kalshi return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long UTAH | $0.228 (Q2 10:41) | $0.316 (Q2 3:53) | +38.6% | 23c | 28c | +21.7% |
| 2 | Long UTAH | $0.323 (Q2 3:53) | $0.445 (Q3 10:49) | +37.8% | 24c | 31c | +29.2% |
| 3 | Long UTAH | $0.160 (Q3 3:22) | $0.239 (Q4 9:15) | +49.4% | 17c | 19c | +11.8% |
Average: Game Signal +41.9% | Kalshi +20.9%
The Game Signal return is the model's price; the Kalshi return is what the market paid, buying at the ask and selling at the bid. Trade 1 (+21.7% on Kalshi vs +38.6%) bought at 23c against $0.228 and sold at 28c against $0.316, so Kalshi paid less; Trade 2 (+29.2% on Kalshi vs +37.8%) bought at 24c against $0.323 and sold at 31c against $0.445, so Kalshi paid less; Trade 3 (+11.8% on Kalshi vs +49.4%) bought at 17c against $0.160 and sold at 19c against $0.239, so Kalshi paid less.
Dead Cat Bounce in This Game
The Memphis vs Utah market analysis Oct 26 is a study in the dead cat bounce pattern. The favorite (Utah, -1.5) fell behind early, its game signal collapsing from a Q1 peak of $0.664 to a Q3 low of $0.037 — a 62.7-point drop — while Memphis built a 16-point lead. Three times the signal bounced enough to generate a tradeable long entry on Utah, and three times the bounce was sold before the next leg down resumed. None of the bounces represented a genuine recovery: Memphis led wire-to-wire after Q1 3:56 and won by 5. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#dead-cat-bounce).
This Memphis vs Utah market analysis Oct 26 confirms that trading the bounce — not the recovery — is the discipline the dead cat bounce pattern demands.
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