2026-10-31
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Atlanta vs New Orleans market analysis Oct 31: The Setup
Asset: Atlanta Hawks (road favorite) | Opening: $0.690 | Spread: ATL -5.5 | Kalshi: 66/67c
This Atlanta vs New Orleans market analysis Oct 31 opens with Atlanta installed as a 5.5-point road favorite at Smoothie King Center, carrying a 3-3 record into New Orleans's 1-4 start. The Hawks opened at $0.690 — a firm favorite price — but the Pelicans' home court and Zion Williamson's presence made the spread a live question from tip-off.
The Pattern: Dead Cat Bounce — Atlanta fell behind early, its game signal bounced twice off oversold lows, and both bounces were sold before the deficit resumed and widened to a final 22-point loss.
Going in: The $0.690 opening price reflected Atlanta's spread advantage; a buy signal would require the game signal to drop well below that level and show momentum turning.
Who Decided It
- New Orleans Pelicans (2-4): Jeremiah Fears posted 20 points and 7 assists, while Saddiq Bey added 25 points on 9-of-13 shooting. Zion Williamson contributed 15 points and 15 rebounds in 30 minutes.
- Atlanta Hawks (3-4): Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu each scored 13 and 6 points respectively, but Atlanta shot 3-of-12 from three in the first quarter and never recovered from the early deficit.
First Quarter: Collapse
Outlook check: The pre-game outlook required Atlanta to hold serve as the favorite. It did not — New Orleans outscored Atlanta 35-18 in the opening period.
Atlanta's game signal peaked at $0.713 after Nickeil Alexander-Walker's early layup, then deteriorated rapidly. A NO 8-0 run from Q1 10:08 to Q1 8:42 — capped by Herbert Jones's three-pointer — pushed the signal to $0.540 with RSI at 20.3. A MACD bullish cross at Q1 8:07 ($0.516, RSI 35.0) offered a brief technical lift, but a second NO 8-0 run from Q1 4:11 to Q1 3:38 drove the signal to $0.326 and RSI to 17.7. By Q1 0:00, Atlanta trailed 35-18 and the game signal sat at $0.194 with RSI at 23.7.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:19 | Alexander-Walker layup | ATL 2, NO 0 | $0.713 | — | 66/67c |
| Q1 8:42 | Herbert Jones three | ATL 4, NO 10 | $0.540 | 20.3 | 52/53c |
| Q1 8:07 | MACD bullish cross | ATL 4, NO 10 | $0.516 | 35.0 | 57/58c |
| Q1 3:38 | Mathurin three | ATL 15, NO 28 | $0.326 | 17.7 | 43/44c |
| Q1 1:12 | Entry — Dort misses three | ATL 18, NO 31 | $0.289 | 32.3 | 29/30c |
| Q1 0:00 | End Q1 | ATL 18, NO 35 | $0.194 | 23.7 | 30/31c |
Decision Point: Long ATL at Q1 1:12 — Dort Misses Three
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ATL bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:12 | ATL 18, NO 31 | $0.289 | 32.3 | −0.68 | 29/30c |
Known at the time: Luguentz Dort had just missed a 25-foot three-pointer with Atlanta trailing by 13. The game signal had dropped from $0.690 to $0.289 — a 41-cent decline — with RSI at 32.3, recovering from a prior extreme low of 14.7 at Q1 3:22. MACD histogram was negative at −0.68. The Kalshi ask was 30c.
The decision: Enter Long ATL at $0.289. The game signal was deeply discounted versus the opening price, RSI had recovered off extreme oversold territory, and the spread implied Atlanta should be trading higher. The Atlanta vs New Orleans market analysis Oct 31 flagged this as a tier-2 oversold entry.
Outlook for Q2: A bounce toward $0.30–$0.35 would confirm the entry. Any continuation below $0.20 would signal the trade was wrong.
Second Quarter: The Bounce and the Fade
Outlook check: The Q1 outlook called for a bounce — it arrived, but only briefly before the signal collapsed again.
Q2 opened with Saddiq Bey's 18-foot jumper extending the lead to 19 (ATL 18, NO 37), driving the game signal to $0.160 and RSI to 17.8 — the entry point for Trade 2. Atlanta then mounted a partial recovery: Aaron Wiggins's running layup, Luguentz Dort's free throws, and Kingston Flemings's driving layup cut the deficit to 15 (ATL 24, NO 39). The game signal climbed to $0.326 and RSI spiked to 81.7 — overbought — when Aaron Wiggins hit a 24-foot three at Q2 7:50 to make it ATL 31, NO 41. That was the exit for Trade 1. New Orleans then responded with a 9-0 run from Q2 7:35 to Q2 5:45, pushing the signal back to $0.120.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:43 | Bey jumper / Entry T2 | ATL 18, NO 37 | $0.160 | 17.8 | 25/26c |
| Q2 10:41 | Wiggins layup | ATL 20, NO 37 | $0.166 | 44.5 | 33/34c |
| Q2 9:32 | Dort steals / bearish div. | ATL 24, NO 39 | $0.231 | 64.9 | 30/31c |
| Q2 7:50 | Wiggins three / Exit T1 | ATL 31, NO 41 | $0.326 | 81.7 | 35/36c |
| Q2 5:45 | Williamson layup | ATL 31, NO 50 | $0.120 | 21.8 | 29/30c |
| Q2 0:00 | End Q2 | ATL 48, NO 63 | $0.152 | 57.9 | 22/23c |
Decision Point: Exit Trade 1 at Q2 7:50 — Wiggins Three
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ATL bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 7:50 | ATL 31, NO 41 | $0.326 | 81.7 | +0.32 | 35/36c |
Known at the time: RSI had reached 81.7 — overbought — as Wiggins's three-pointer completed a 13-point ATL run. The game signal had recovered from $0.289 to $0.326. MACD histogram had turned positive at +0.32. A bearish divergence had fired at Q2 9:32 (RSI 64.9, lower than the prior peak of 69.8), signaling buyer momentum was weakening.
The decision: Exit Long ATL at $0.326. RSI overbought with a bearish divergence already in place — the bounce had run its course. Return: +12.8% on the game signal; Kalshi entry ask 30c, exit bid 35c, return +16.7%.
Decision Point: Long ATL at Q2 11:43 — Bey Jumper
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ATL bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:43 | ATL 18, NO 37 | $0.160 | 17.8 | −0.37 | 25/26c |
Known at the time: Saddiq Bey's jumper extended the lead to 19. The game signal had dropped to $0.160 — a new low — with RSI at 17.8, extreme oversold. MACD histogram was −0.37. The Kalshi ask was 26c.
The decision: Enter Long ATL at $0.160. RSI at extreme oversold levels with the game signal at a fresh low versus the spread's expected price — a tier-1 oversold entry. The dead cat bounce pattern suggested another short-term recovery was possible.
Outlook for Q3: A signal recovery toward $0.19–$0.20 with RSI exiting oversold would confirm the bounce. A continued slide below $0.10 would invalidate the trade.
Third Quarter: Second Bounce, Second Exit
Outlook check: The Q2 outlook called for a recovery toward $0.19–$0.20. The signal did reach $0.194 at Q3 11:03 — right at the target — before collapsing further.
Q3 opened with Atlanta still down 15. CJ McCollum's driving layup at Q3 11:23 (ATL 50, NO 63) pushed the signal to $0.178, and RSI climbed to 72.1 — overbought — when Karlo Matkovic committed an offensive foul at Q3 11:03. That was the exit for Trade 2. McCollum then hit a 27-foot three at Q3 10:55 (RSI 84.3), but New Orleans answered and the deficit grew. By Q3 7:29, Karlo Matkovic's three-pointer pushed the signal to $0.054 and RSI to 27.0. The quarter ended with Atlanta trailing 92-74 and the game signal at $0.019.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 11:23 | McCollum layup | ATL 50, NO 63 | $0.178 | 67.0 | 25/26c |
| Q3 11:03 | Matkovic foul / Exit T2 | ATL 50, NO 63 | $0.194 | 72.1 | 25/26c |
| Q3 10:55 | McCollum three | ATL 53, NO 63 | $0.255 | 84.3 | 25/26c |
| Q3 7:29 | Matkovic three | ATL 55, NO 74 | $0.054 | 27.0 | 12/13c |
| Q3 0:00 | End Q3 | ATL 74, NO 92 | $0.019 | 37.0 | 6/7c |
Decision Point: Exit Trade 2 at Q3 11:03 — Matkovic Offensive Foul
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ATL bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 11:03 | ATL 50, NO 63 | $0.194 | 72.1 | +0.47 | 25/26c |
Known at the time: RSI had reached 72.1 — overbought — as the game signal recovered to $0.194. MACD histogram was positive at +0.47. The game signal had moved from $0.160 to $0.194 — a 21.2% gain.
The decision: Exit Long ATL at $0.194. RSI crossed into overbought territory, the bounce target was reached, and the dead cat bounce pattern called for selling the recovery. Return: +21.2% on the game signal; Kalshi entry ask 26c, exit bid 25c, return −3.8%.
Fourth Quarter: Confirmation
Outlook check: Both trades were closed. Q4 confirmed the pattern — the game signal fell to $0.009 by Q4 11:39 and never recovered, ending at $0.000.
New Orleans outscored Atlanta 29-25 in the fourth, extending the final margin to 22 points. The game signal spent the entire quarter below $0.025, with RSI cycling through oversold readings below 30 repeatedly. Kingston Flemings and Asa Newell provided garbage-time scoring for Atlanta, but the outcome was never in doubt. The largest lead reached 28 points (ATL 93, NO 121) at Q4 2:26.
Decision Point: Stay Out in Q4
With both trades closed and the game signal below $0.010, no new entry was warranted. The dead cat bounce had played out — both bounces were sold, and the signal confirmed the pattern by trending to zero.
Final Accounting
This Atlanta vs New Orleans market analysis Oct 31 produced two completed trades, both Long ATL, both exited on RSI overbought signals.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Game Signal return | Kalshi entry (ask) | Kalshi exit (bid) | Kalshi return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long ATL | $0.289 (Q1 1:12) | $0.326 (Q2 7:50) | +12.8% | 30c | 35c | +16.7% |
| 2 | Long ATL | $0.160 (Q2 11:43) | $0.194 (Q3 11:03) | +21.2% | 26c | 25c | −3.8% |
Average: Game Signal +17.0% | Kalshi +6.4%
The Game Signal return is the model's price; the Kalshi return is what the market paid, buying at the ask and selling at the bid. Trade 1 (+16.7% on Kalshi vs +12.8%) bought at 30c against $0.289 and sold at 35c against $0.326, so Kalshi paid more; Trade 2 (-3.8% on Kalshi vs +21.2%) bought at 26c against $0.160 and sold at 25c against $0.194, so Kalshi paid less.
Dead Cat Bounce in This Game
The Atlanta vs New Orleans market analysis Oct 31 shows a dead cat bounce across two distinct cycles. In this pattern, the underdog won — New Orleans was the home underdog — and the favorite's game signal fell, bounced, was sold, fell again, bounced again, was sold again, and then continued lower to zero. Atlanta's signal dropped from $0.690 to $0.289 before the first bounce to $0.326; it then fell to $0.160 before the second bounce to $0.194; after that, it collapsed to $0.000 as New Orleans won 121-99. Neither bounce was a recovery — both were sold at RSI overbought readings of 81.7 and 72.1 respectively. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#dead-cat-bounce).
The Atlanta vs New Orleans market analysis Oct 31 demonstrates how a favored team's game signal can produce tradeable short-term bounces even within a losing trajectory.
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