2026-10-28
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New York vs Chicago market analysis Oct 28: The Setup
Asset: New York Knicks (road favorite) | Opening: $0.785 | Spread: NY -6.5 | Kalshi: 71/72c
This New York vs Chicago market analysis Oct 28 opens with the Knicks installed as 6.5-point road favorites at the United Center, both teams entering at 1-3. New York carried OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns as its primary weapons; Chicago countered with Norman Powell and a young frontcourt built around Matas Buzelis and Jalen Smith.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — the Knicks' game signal plunged from $0.785 at tip-off to $0.508 at halftime, then climbed steadily to $0.950 by the final buzzer, tracing a clear V on the chart.
Going in: The opening price of $0.785 reflected the spread expectation; a buy signal would require the game signal to drop sharply enough to create an oversold entry with RSI confirmation.
Who Decided It
- New York Knicks (2-3): Jalen Brunson scored 38 points on 13-of-25 shooting with seven assists, and Karl-Anthony Towns added 19 points and 13 rebounds. Jordan Clarkson contributed 18 off the bench in 17 minutes.
- Chicago Bulls (1-4): Norman Powell led with 30 points and shot 10-of-15, but Josh Giddey's 11 assists couldn't overcome a 43-31 fourth-quarter deficit. The Bulls' 19-point lead in the third evaporated entirely.
First Quarter: Choppy Establishment
Outlook check: No prior outlook to score — this is the opening quarter.
The Knicks opened at $0.785 (Kalshi 71/72c) and immediately gave ground. Norman Powell's 23-foot running jumper at Q1 10:29 pushed Chicago ahead 5-2 and dropped the game signal to $0.728 with RSI at 24.7 — the first oversold reading of the game. Jalen Smith's 17-foot jumper at Q1 10:05 extended the Bulls' lead to 7-4, pulling the signal to $0.726. A MACD bullish cross fired at Q1 6:17 when Karl-Anthony Towns hit a 28-foot three to give New York its first lead at 16-14, lifting the signal to $0.792. The quarter ended in a near-deadlock: NY 34, CHI 33, game signal $0.770, RSI 39.9.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:29 | Powell 23-ft running jumper | NY 2, CHI 5 | $0.728 | 24.7 | 65/66c |
| Q1 6:17 | Towns 28-ft three (Brunson assists) | NY 16, CHI 14 | $0.792 | 65.6 | 71/72c |
| Q1 4:47 | Brunson 25-ft three | NY 21, CHI 17 | $0.823 | 67.1 | 71/72c |
| Q1 0:00 | End of Q1 | NY 34, CHI 33 | $0.770 | 39.9 | 69/70c |
Decision Point: Hold — No Entry Signal Yet
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NY bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | NY 34, CHI 33 | $0.770 | 39.9 | – | 69/70c |
Known at the time: The Knicks led by one at the break, RSI was neutral at 39.9, and no oversold extreme had persisted long enough to form a tradeable setup. The MACD bullish cross at Q1 6:17 was encouraging but the signal had recovered to near-opening levels.
The decision: Stay out. The game signal had not deviated far enough from the opening price to justify a long entry, and RSI showed no sustained oversold condition.
Outlook for the next quarter: Watch for a sustained dip below $0.65 with RSI below 30 to create a V-bottom entry opportunity.
Second Quarter: The Setup Forms
Outlook check: The outlook called for a dip below $0.65 with RSI below 30 — that condition arrived and then some.
The second quarter delivered the entry setup. OG Anunoby's alley-oop dunk at Q2 11:35 and a three-pointer at Q2 11:10 pushed New York to a 39-35 lead and the signal to $0.817. Then Chicago took over. Caleb Wilson's driving floater at Q2 8:45 tied the game at 42-41 and dropped the signal to $0.727 (RSI 27.9). Matas Buzelis's two-point shot at Q2 8:25 put Chicago ahead 44-41, RSI falling to 23.3. A MACD bearish cross fired at Q2 7:53 with the signal at $0.599. The signal briefly recovered on Jordan Clarkson's free throws at Q2 6:40, but Chicago's 8-0 run from Q2 1:16 through Q3 11:41 had already begun — Norman Powell's driving floater at Q2 1:16 made it 58-56 Bulls. Tre Jones's buzzer-beating 42-foot three at Q2 0:00 extended the lead to 62-56, crashing the signal to $0.528 and RSI to 25.2. The MACD histogram sat at -1.09.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:25 | Buzelis two-point shot | NY 41, CHI 44 | $0.676 | 23.3 | 63/64c |
| Q2 7:53 | MACD bearish cross | NY 41, CHI 44 | $0.599 | 25.9 | 69/70c |
| Q2 1:16 | Powell driving floater | NY 56, CHI 58 | $0.670 | 33.7 | 61/62c |
| Q2 0:00 | Jones 42-ft buzzer three | NY 56, CHI 62 | $0.528 | 25.2 | 53/54c |
Decision Point: ENTRY — Long NY at Halftime
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NY bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:00 | NY 56, CHI 62 | $0.508 | 22.8 | -1.09 | 53/54c |
Known at the time: This New York vs Chicago market analysis Oct 28 identified the entry at the halftime buzzer. Tre Jones's 42-foot heave had just extended Chicago's lead to six. RSI on the Knicks' line had fallen to 22.8 — deeply oversold — and the game signal sat at $0.508, nearly 28 points below the opening price. The MACD histogram was negative at -1.09. The signal had been in oversold territory repeatedly through the second quarter, and the spread's implied edge (NY -6.5) meant the Knicks were now trading near even-money despite being a clear pre-game favorite.
The decision: Enter Long NY at $0.508 (Kalshi ask 54c). The combination of extreme oversold RSI, a game signal that had dropped from $0.785 to $0.508, and the structural expectation of a quality road favorite created the V-bottom entry condition.
Outlook for the next quarter: RSI needs to exit oversold territory and MACD needs a bullish cross to confirm the recovery. A Chicago run extending the lead beyond 10 would threaten the position.
Third Quarter: The Collapse and Recovery
Outlook check: The outlook called for RSI to exit oversold and MACD to turn bullish — both happened, but only after Chicago pushed its lead to 19 points.
The third quarter was the most volatile of the game. Norman Powell's driving floater at Q3 11:41 extended Chicago's lead to 64-56, dropping the signal to $0.447 with RSI at 14.6 — the most extreme oversold reading of the game. RSI exited oversold at Q3 12:00 (the halftime entry had already been made). A MACD bullish cross fired at Q3 11:15. Karl-Anthony Towns hit a three at Q3 10:59 to cut it to 64-61, but Chicago's 11-0 run from Q3 7:22 to Q3 4:57 — capped by Norman Powell's 26-foot three — pushed the lead to 87-68 and the game signal to $0.053, RSI 14.0. A bullish divergence signal fired at Q3 5:55 (RSI 31.7, a higher low than the prior 14.6). Then New York's 11-0 run from Q3 4:10 to Q3 2:00 began: Jalen Brunson's three at Q3 4:10, three free throws at Q3 3:33, Andre Drummond's tip at Q3 2:18, and Tyler Kolek's running jumper at Q3 2:00 cut the deficit to 89-82. A MACD bullish cross fired at Q3 0:52. The quarter ended 96-90 Chicago, game signal $0.346.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 11:41 | Powell driving floater | NY 56, CHI 64 | $0.447 | 14.6 | 58/59c |
| Q3 4:57 | Powell 26-ft three (Smith assists) | NY 68, CHI 87 | $0.053 | 14.0 | 15/16c |
| Q3 2:00 | Kolek 23-ft running jumper | NY 82, CHI 89 | $0.313 | 84.6 | 44/45c |
| Q3 0:00 | End of Q3 | NY 90, CHI 96 | $0.346 | 47.7 | 45/46c |
Decision Point: Hold — Position Surviving the Drawdown
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NY bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 0:00 | NY 90, CHI 96 | $0.346 | 47.7 | – | 45/46c |
Known at the time: The position had drawn down sharply — the signal touched $0.053 at Q3 4:57 before recovering to $0.346. The 11-0 New York run had cut the deficit to six, and RSI had normalized to 47.7. The MACD bullish cross at Q3 0:52 had confirmed upward momentum.
The decision: Hold Long NY. The recovery from $0.053 to $0.346 in the final four minutes of the third showed the V-bottom structure forming. Exiting here would crystallize a loss when momentum had clearly shifted.
Outlook for the next quarter: New York needs to erase the six-point deficit. A lead change would push the signal above $0.65 and confirm the V-bottom recovery.
Fourth Quarter: The Completion
Outlook check: The outlook called for a lead change and signal above $0.65 — New York took the lead at Q4 9:02 and the signal reached $0.652 at that moment, then surged further.
The fourth quarter delivered the full V-bottom recovery. Karl-Anthony Towns opened with a 26-foot three at Q4 11:23 (signal $0.466, RSI 78.7). Jordan Clarkson's three at Q4 10:36 cut it to 96-99, and OG Anunoby's driving layup at Q4 10:02 made it 98-99. Anunoby's running layup at Q4 9:02 gave New York its first lead since the second quarter at 102-101 (signal $0.652). Chicago briefly retook the lead at Q4 8:49 on Powell's three, but the Knicks' closing run was decisive. Brunson's 26-foot three at Q4 4:56 pushed the lead to 119-112 (signal $0.920), and his 25-foot three at Q4 3:17 extended it to 127-116 — New York's largest lead of the game at 11 points. OG Anunoby's free throws at Q4 0:01 sealed it 133-127.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 9:02 | Anunoby running layup | NY 102, CHI 101 | $0.652 | 74.9 | 63/64c |
| Q4 4:56 | Brunson 26-ft three | NY 119, CHI 112 | $0.920 | 76.0 | 90/91c |
| Q4 3:17 | Brunson 25-ft three | NY 127, CHI 116 | $0.989 | 75.0 | 96/97c |
| Q4 0:00 | Final | NY 133, CHI 127 | $0.950 | 70.3 | 99/100c |
Decision Point: EXIT — Long NY at Game End
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NY bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | NY 133, CHI 127 | $0.950 | 70.3 | -0.11 | 99/100c |
Known at the time: The Knicks had won 133-127. RSI had been in overbought territory through the final five minutes, and the MACD histogram had turned slightly negative at -0.11. The exit signal fired at game end with RSI at 70.3.
The decision: Exit Long NY at $0.950. The V-bottom recovery was complete — entry at $0.508, exit at $0.950, a return of +87.0% on the game signal.
Final Accounting
This New York vs Chicago market analysis Oct 28 produced one completed trade with a clean entry and exit.
| Trade | Entry | Exit | Game Signal return | Kalshi entry (ask) | Kalshi exit (bid) | Kalshi return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long NY (Q2 0:00) | $0.508 | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +87.0% | 54c | 99c | +83.3% |
Average: Game Signal +87.0% | Kalshi +83.3%
The Game Signal return is the model's price; the Kalshi return is what the market paid, buying at the ask and selling at the bid. Trade 1 (+83.3% on Kalshi vs +87.0%) bought at 54c against $0.508 and sold at 99c against $0.950, so Kalshi paid less.
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
This New York vs Chicago market analysis Oct 28 is a study in the V-Bottom Recovery pattern. A V-Bottom Recovery occurs when a team's game signal plunges sharply, finds a floor, and climbs back — forming a V shape on the chart — with the trade entered near the bottom. Here, the Knicks' signal fell from $0.785 at tip-off to $0.508 at halftime (RSI 22.8), bottomed at $0.053 during Chicago's 19-point third-quarter lead, then recovered all the way to $0.950 by the final buzzer. The entry at halftime captured the upswing from $0.508 to $0.950, a +87.0% return, as Jalen Brunson's 38-point performance and a 43-31 fourth quarter completed the reversal. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
The New York vs Chicago market analysis Oct 28 confirms that a road favorite trading near even-money at halftime, with RSI deeply oversold, can present a high-return V-bottom entry when the structural edge remains intact.
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