2026-10-31
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Oklahoma City vs Houston market analysis Oct 31: The Setup
Asset: Oklahoma City Thunder (road underdog) | Opening: $0.527 | Spread: OKC +2.5 | Kalshi: 43/44c
This Oklahoma City vs Houston market analysis Oct 31 finds OKC entering Toyota Center as a 2.5-point underdog against a Houston squad that opened the season 5-1. The Thunder came in at 4-1, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading a young roster that had covered spreads in four of five games. The question was whether Houston's home-court edge and Kevin Durant's veteran presence would overwhelm OKC's depth.
The Pattern: Double Bottom — OKC's game signal dipped to $0.270 in Q1, bounced, then collapsed further to $0.068 in Q2 before a second bounce, forming two distinct oversold troughs with higher RSI readings on the second trough.
Going in: OKC opened at $0.527, a slight favorite by the market despite the spread; a buy signal would require the game signal to drop into oversold territory while RSI confirmed momentum stabilization.
Who Decided It
- Houston Rockets (6-1): Jabari Smith Jr. was the story — 30 points on 10-of-18 shooting with six three-pointers, while Marcus Smart added 24 points on 7-of-10 from three. Alperen Sengun orchestrated with 9 assists.
- Oklahoma City Thunder (4-2): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 26 points but shot 10-of-20 and couldn't sustain OKC's early momentum. Isaiah Hartenstein (10 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals) and Kenrich Williams (11 points, 7 rebounds) fought hard off the bench, but the Thunder fell behind by double digits and never recovered.
First Quarter: Early Collapse
Outlook check: The opening price of $0.527 suggested a competitive game. That outlook broke quickly.
OKC jumped out 4-0 on an Isaiah Hartenstein alley-oop and a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bucket, pushing the game signal to $0.602 and RSI to 83.9 — briefly overbought. Houston answered with a Marcus Smart three-pointer and Kevin Durant mid-range jumper to tie it at 5-5. From there, Houston's offense found a rhythm. Durant's 11-foot pullup at Q1 7:59 pushed the score to 9-6 and dropped OKC's signal to $0.450 with RSI at 29.6 — the first oversold reading. Smart's 26-footer at Q1 7:22 extended the lead to 12-8, pulling RSI down to 30.8 and triggering a MACD bearish cross. Houston then went on a sustained run: Tari Eason's three at Q1 5:51 made it 16-11, and Alperen Sengun's two free throws at Q1 5:34 pushed the lead to 18-11, with OKC's signal crashing to $0.326 and RSI hitting 19.0 — extreme oversold. Marcus Smart's 27-footer at Q1 4:38 extended Houston's lead to 24-14, dropping OKC to $0.270 with RSI at 25.0.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi OKC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:52 | SGA 5-foot shot | OKC 4, HOU 0 | $0.602 | — | 42/43c |
| Q1 7:59 | Durant 11-foot pullup | OKC 6, HOU 9 | $0.450 | 29.6 | 38/39c |
| Q1 5:34 | Sengun FT 1 of 2 | OKC 11, HOU 17 | $0.326 | 19.0 | 31/32c |
| Q1 4:38 | Smart 27-foot three | OKC 14, HOU 24 | $0.270 | 25.0 | 19/20c |
Decision Point: Long OKC After Smart's Three-Pointer
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi OKC bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:38 | OKC 14, HOU 24 | $0.270 | 25.0 | −0.43 | 19/20c |
Known at the time: Marcus Smart had just drained a 27-footer assisted by Kevin Durant to push Houston's lead to 10. OKC's game signal sat at $0.270, RSI at 25.0 — deep oversold — and the MACD histogram was negative at −0.43. The Kalshi market quoted OKC at 19/20c. The Oklahoma City vs Houston market analysis Oct 31 flagged this as the first Double Bottom entry: the signal had fallen sharply from the opening $0.527, RSI was in oversold territory, and the spread implied OKC was a live underdog.
The decision: ENTRY — Long OKC at $0.270. The game signal had dropped 48 points from the opening price with RSI confirming oversold conditions; the spread-adjusted expectation made this a viable long entry.
Outlook for Q2: A hold above $0.270 with RSI stabilizing above 20 would confirm the first trough. A further collapse below $0.200 without RSI recovery would signal the pattern was still forming.
Second Quarter: The Double Bottom Forms
Outlook check: The Q1 outlook did not hold — OKC's signal continued lower before the first bounce materialized.
OKC's signal briefly recovered to $0.316 at Q2 10:51 as Isaiah Hartenstein drew a shooting foul and converted both free throws, pushing RSI to 74.8 — the exit signal for Trade 1. That bounce was short-lived. Isaiah Crawford's three-pointer at Q2 10:41 restarted Houston's run, and a MACD bearish cross confirmed the reversal. Houston's 10-0 run from Q2 8:53 to Q2 6:10 — capped by Amen Thompson's tip shot — drove OKC's signal to $0.056 with RSI hitting 10.8, the lowest reading of the game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 15-foot fade-away at Q2 6:00 started a response: OKC's 10-0 run from Q2 6:00 to Q2 3:50 saw SGA score twice and Bennett Stirtz drain a 26-footer, lifting the signal to $0.200 and RSI to 88.3.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi OKC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:51 | Hartenstein FT (exit T1) | OKC 28, HOU 37 | $0.316 | 74.8 | 27/28c |
| Q2 8:42 | Williams turnover (entry T2) | OKC 34, HOU 47 | $0.158 | 28.3 | 14/15c |
| Q2 6:25 | Mitchell misses three | OKC 34, HOU 53 | $0.068 | 11.6 | 12/13c |
| Q2 3:24 | Smith Jr. turnover (exit T2) | OKC 44, HOU 55 | $0.200 | 88.3 | 15/16c |
Decision Point 1: Exit Trade 1 at RSI 74.8
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi OKC bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:51 | OKC 28, HOU 37 | $0.316 | 74.8 | +0.92 | 27/28c |
Known at the time: Alperen Sengun had been called for a shooting foul, and Hartenstein was at the line. RSI had climbed to 74.8 — overbought — and the MACD histogram had crossed positive to +0.92. The signal had risen from $0.270 to $0.316.
The decision: EXIT Trade 1 — Long OKC +17.0%. RSI reached overbought and MACD confirmed upward momentum had peaked; the bounce off the first trough was complete.
Decision Point 2: Long OKC Again at the Second Trough
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi OKC bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:42 | OKC 34, HOU 47 | $0.158 | 28.3 | −0.39 | 14/15c |
Known at the time: Jaylin Williams had just turned the ball over out of bounds. OKC's signal had fallen to $0.158 — well below the Q1 entry of $0.270 — with RSI at 28.3 and MACD negative at −0.39. This Oklahoma City vs Houston market analysis Oct 31 identified the second trough forming: a lower price low but with RSI still above the extreme 10.8 reading that would come minutes later, signaling the Double Bottom structure was developing.
The decision: ENTRY — Long OKC at $0.158. The signal had made a lower low than Q1 with RSI in oversold territory; the Double Bottom pattern required a second entry at this deeper trough.
Decision Point 3: Exit Trade 2 at RSI 88.3
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi OKC bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 3:24 | OKC 44, HOU 55 | $0.200 | 88.3 | +0.65 | 15/16c |
Known at the time: Isaiah Hartenstein had just stolen Jabari Smith Jr.'s bad pass. RSI had surged to 88.3 — extreme overbought — and MACD was positive at +0.65. The signal had risen from $0.158 to $0.200 on OKC's 10-0 run.
The decision: EXIT Trade 2 — Long OKC +26.6%. RSI at 88.3 was the highest reading of the game; the bounce off the second trough was complete.
Outlook for Q3: Both trades closed. With OKC trailing 55-44 at halftime and no new oversold entry signal, the position was flat. A further collapse in Q3 would confirm the game was out of reach.
Third Quarter: Signal Deterioration
Outlook check: The flat outlook held — no new qualifying entry materialized, and OKC's signal continued to erode.
Houston opened Q3 with an Alperen Sengun layup and Marcus Smart's 25-foot running jumper to push the lead to 19 at Q3 10:04 (OKC 51, HOU 70), dropping OKC's signal to $0.045 with RSI at 17.9. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 15-foot fade-away at Q3 9:47 and Kenrich Williams' 28-footer at Q3 8:36 kept OKC within striking distance on the scoreboard, but the game signal never recovered above $0.080. Multiple double-bottom signals fired — at Q3 8:10, Q3 6:57, and Q3 3:19 — but none met the minimum trade window criteria. By Q3 end, OKC trailed 92-75 with the signal at $0.020.
Decision Point: Stay Out in Q3
Known at the time: OKC's signal was below $0.080 for most of the quarter, RSI oscillated between 17.9 and 67.7, and no exit signal reached the threshold needed to close a new position profitably within the minimum window. Both trades were already closed.
The decision: No trade. The signal was too depressed and the deficit too large for a qualifying entry.
Outlook for Q4: With OKC trailing by 17 and the signal near zero, Q4 was garbage time.
Fourth Quarter: Garbage Time
Outlook check: Confirmed — Q4 was garbage time with OKC's signal pinned at $0.001 from Q4 8:24 onward.
Houston extended its lead to 27 (OKC 81, HOU 108) at Q4 7:46 on a Marcus Smart three-pointer. OKC's reserves — Josh Dix, Bennett Stirtz, Brooks Barnhizer — scored 23 points in the quarter, but the outcome was never in doubt. The signal held at $0.001 with RSI locked at 25.1 for the final eight minutes.
Decision Point: No Trade in Q4
Known at the time: OKC's game signal was $0.001 — effectively zero — with RSI at 25.1 and no Kalshi quotes available. Both trades had been closed in Q2.
The decision: No trade. The game was decided.
Final Accounting
This Oklahoma City vs Houston market analysis Oct 31 produced two completed trades, both Long OKC, both closed in the second quarter.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Game Signal return | Kalshi entry (ask) | Kalshi exit (bid) | Kalshi return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long OKC | $0.270 (Q1 4:38) | $0.316 (Q2 10:51) | +17.0% | 20c | 27c | +35.0% |
| 2 | Long OKC | $0.158 (Q2 8:42) | $0.200 (Q2 3:24) | +26.6% | 15c | 15c | +0.0% |
Average: Game Signal +21.8% | Kalshi +17.5%
The Game Signal return is the model's price; the Kalshi return is what the market paid, buying at the ask and selling at the bid. Trade 1 (+35.0% on Kalshi vs +17.0%) bought at 20c against $0.270 and sold at 27c against $0.316, so Kalshi paid more; Trade 2 (+0.0% on Kalshi vs +26.6%) bought at 15c against $0.158 and sold at 15c against $0.200, so Kalshi paid less.
Double Bottom in This Game
The Oklahoma City vs Houston market analysis Oct 31 shows a Double Bottom pattern across the first two quarters. The pattern describes a team whose game signal dips, bounces, then dips again to a lower level before bouncing a second time — two separate troughs, neither a clean V-recovery. Here, OKC's signal fell to $0.270 in Q1 (RSI 25.0), bounced to $0.316, then collapsed further to $0.068 in Q2 (RSI 10.8) before recovering to $0.200 — a lower price low but with RSI making a higher low on the second bounce, the classic divergence that defines the pattern. Houston won convincingly 119-98, but the Oklahoma City vs Houston market analysis Oct 31 captured two profitable exits from the two oversold troughs before the game was out of reach. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#double-bottom).
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