2026-10-31
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Minnesota vs San Antonio market analysis Oct 31: The Setup
Asset: San Antonio Spurs (home favorite) | Opening: $0.707 | Spread: SA -12.5 | Kalshi: 82/83c
This Minnesota vs San Antonio market analysis Oct 31 opens with San Antonio installed as a 12.5-point home favorite at Frost Bank Center, carrying a 3-2 record into a matchup against Minnesota's 4-2 squad. The Spurs' edge rested on Victor Wembanyama's two-way dominance and a deep backcourt, but the Timberwolves arrived with Ayo Dosunmu and Jaden McDaniels capable of disrupting any rhythm.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — the Spurs' game signal plunged from $0.857 at Q1 7:51 all the way to $0.426 at Q2 1:20, then climbed steadily back to close at $1.00, tracing a clear V on the chart.
Going in: The opening price of $0.707 reflected the spread expectation; a buy signal would require the game signal to drop well below that level with RSI confirming oversold conditions.
Who Decided It
- San Antonio Spurs (4-2): Victor Wembanyama posted 43 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 blocks on 17-of-34 shooting; De'Aaron Fox added 22 points on 8-of-10 from the field, and Dylan Harper contributed 25 points and 6 assists.
- Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3): Ayo Dosunmu led with 27 points and 9 rebounds, while Jaden McDaniels and Jonathan Kuminga each scored 19 — but five LaMelo Ball turnovers and a collective 7-of-27 from three in the second half undermined the comeback attempt.
First Quarter: Early Dominance, Then Collapse
Outlook check: The opening price of $0.707 suggested a comfortable Spurs edge — that held for the first four minutes, then evaporated.
Wembanyama set the tone immediately, blocking Jonathan Kuminga's layup at Q1 11:19 and converting a driving dunk off a Stephon Castle assist at Q1 9:10. San Antonio ran a 10-0 burst from Q1 10:48 to Q1 7:59, pushing the game signal to $0.857 with RSI at 78.8 — deep overbought territory. Then Minnesota answered with an 11-0 run of their own. Joan Beringer scored twice, Ayo Dosunmu added a floater, and Bones Hyland hit a pullup jumper at Q1 5:10 to tie the game at 13-11. The game signal collapsed to $0.632, RSI plunging to 18.9 — the first extreme oversold reading of the night.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi SA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:51 | Vassell blocks McDaniels | MIN 2, SA 11 | $0.857 | 77.9 | 88/89c |
| Q1 6:28 | Beringer makes two-point shot | MIN 8, SA 11 | $0.761 | 24.1 | 85/86c |
| Q1 5:10 | Hyland makes 15-foot pullup | MIN 13, SA 11 | $0.651 | 22.0 | 81/82c |
| Q1 4:51 | Vassell misses 17-foot pullup | MIN 13, SA 11 | $0.632 | 18.9 | 81/82c |
Decision Point: Long SA at Q1 4:51 — Bullish Divergence at RSI 18.9
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi SA bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:51 | MIN 13, SA 11 | $0.632 | 18.9 | -0.54 | 81/82c |
Known at the time: Devin Vassell had just missed a 17-foot pullup, leaving San Antonio down 13-11. The game signal had dropped from $0.857 to $0.632 — a 22-point swing in under three minutes. RSI registered 18.9, a higher low than the prior extreme of 16.8 at Q1 6:28, triggering a bullish divergence: the game signal made a lower low while RSI made a higher low, signaling that selling momentum was weakening. MACD histogram sat at -0.54, still negative but not accelerating. Kalshi was quoting SA at 81/82c.
The decision: Enter Long SA at $0.632. The bullish divergence with RSI at 18.9 — deeply oversold against a 12.5-point favorite — presented the first entry in this Minnesota vs San Antonio market analysis Oct 31.
Outlook for Q2: Confirmation would come from a MACD bullish cross and RSI recovering above 30. A continued Minnesota scoring run would threaten the position.
Second Quarter: The Deeper Plunge and Two More Entries
Outlook check: The MACD bullish cross arrived immediately at Q1 4:48 when Dylan Harper hit a three-pointer to tie the game. The Spurs rebuilt a lead — but Minnesota's 16-0 run from Q2 8:35 to Q2 4:12 shattered the recovery and forced two additional entries.
San Antonio led 46-35 at Q2 8:47 after Julian Champagnie's free throws pushed RSI to 73.9 — overbought, and a double-top signal fired. Minnesota then went on a 16-0 run: Jonathan Kuminga scored six points, Ayo Dosunmu added five, and Trey Lyles hit free throws to put Minnesota ahead 51-46. The game signal fell to $0.560 with RSI at 21.4 as De'Aaron Fox was called for a shooting foul at Q2 4:45. A second MACD bearish cross confirmed the momentum shift. At Q2 4:12, Trey Lyles converted two free throws to push Minnesota to 51-46 and the game signal touched $0.488 — San Antonio's lowest reading since Q1. Victor Wembanyama then missed a step-back three at Q2 3:21, leaving the score 53-48 and the game signal at $0.483 with RSI at 32.8.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi SA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:47 | Champagnie FT 2 of 3 | MIN 35, SA 45 | $0.891 | 73.9 | 90/91c |
| Q2 6:06 | Kuminga makes FT 1 of 1 | MIN 46, SA 46 | $0.676 | 22.8 | 78/80c |
| Q2 4:45 | Fox shooting foul | MIN 48, SA 46 | $0.560 | 21.4 | 72/73c |
| Q2 4:12 | Lyles FT 2 of 2 | MIN 51, SA 46 | $0.488 | 24.4 | 64/66c |
| Q2 3:21 | Wembanyama misses step-back 3 | MIN 53, SA 48 | $0.483 | 32.8 | 64/66c |
Decision Point: Long SA at Q2 4:45 — RSI 21.4, Oversold vs. Spread
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi SA bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 4:45 | MIN 48, SA 46 | $0.560 | 21.4 | -0.57 | 72/73c |
Known at the time: Minnesota had just taken a 48-46 lead. RSI sat at 21.4 — oversold for a team favored by 12.5 points. MACD histogram was -0.57, and a bearish cross had just fired. Kalshi was quoting SA at 72/73c, well below the opening 82/83c.
The decision: Add Long SA at $0.560. The game signal had dropped 33 cents from the Q2 peak, and RSI confirmed oversold conditions against the spread expectation.
Decision Point: Long SA at Q2 3:21 — Bullish Divergence, RSI 32.8
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi SA bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 3:21 | MIN 53, SA 48 | $0.483 | 32.8 | +0.05 | 64/66c |
Known at the time: Wembanyama had just missed a step-back three. The game signal was $0.483 — below even-money for a 12.5-point favorite. RSI at 32.8 was recovering from the prior low of 24.4, a bullish divergence: the game signal made a lower low while RSI made a higher low. MACD histogram had ticked to +0.05, the first positive reading in several minutes. Kalshi was at 64/66c.
The decision: Enter Long SA at $0.483. The divergence and the MACD histogram turning positive provided the third entry signal. Wembanyama's tip-in at Q2 2:48 and back-to-back threes to close the half — the game signal reaching $0.612 at halftime — validated the direction.
Outlook for Q3: San Antonio trailed 61-60 at the break. A fast start to the third quarter would confirm the recovery; another Minnesota run would test all three positions.
Third Quarter: Wembanyama Takes Over
Outlook check: The fast start arrived. De'Aaron Fox hit two free throws to open Q3, and a MACD bullish cross at Q3 10:06 confirmed the momentum shift. The V-bottom was forming.
Wembanyama scored 14 points in the third quarter, including an alley-oop dunk off Dylan Harper at Q3 9:38 and a layup-plus-foul sequence at Q3 9:12 that pushed RSI to 85.2 — extreme overbought. Harper added a running dunk at Q3 7:54 to extend the lead to 73-65. Minnesota trimmed it briefly at Q3 6:36 when Ayo Dosunmu hit two free throws (RSI dropped to 20.4), but a MACD bullish cross fired at that same moment. San Antonio closed the quarter on a 10-0 run from Q3 0:02 through Q4 10:34, with De'Aaron Fox's step-back jumper at Q3 0:02 capping a 93-88 lead.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi SA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:38 | Wembanyama alley-oop dunk | MIN 63, SA 66 | $0.718 | 70.4 | 86/87c |
| Q3 9:12 | Wembanyama layup + foul | MIN 63, SA 68 | $0.775 | 79.8 | 86/87c |
| Q3 6:36 | Dosunmu FT 1 of 2 | MIN 70, SA 73 | $0.690 | 20.4 | 80/81c |
| Q3 3:25 | Fox FT 1 of 2 | MIN 76, SA 83 | $0.880 | 85.0 | 88/89c |
| Q3 0:00 | End of Q3 | MIN 88, SA 93 | $0.807 | 46.1 | 84/85c |
Decision Point: Hold through Q3
Known at the time: All three positions were profitable. The game signal had recovered from $0.483 to $0.807 by quarter's end. No exit signal had fired — RSI was neutral at 46.1 and MACD had just turned bullish at Q3 0:00.
The decision: Hold all three Long SA positions. The V-bottom recovery was tracking as expected, and the exit target remained end-of-game.
Fourth Quarter: Closing the Trade
Outlook check: San Antonio opened Q4 with a 93-88 lead. Dylan Harper's three-pointer at Q4 11:35 and Wembanyama's driving dunk at Q4 10:55 extended the lead to 13 points — the game's largest — pushing RSI to 83.2 at Q4 10:34.
Minnesota made one final push: Joan Beringer's dunk at Q4 8:38 cut the lead to 103-95 and RSI dropped to 28.8. A bullish divergence fired at Q4 6:30 (RSI 18.9, higher low than the prior 18.3) as Wembanyama missed a jumper, but the Spurs answered immediately — Wembanyama's running dunk at Q4 6:15 and Devin Vassell's two-pointer at Q4 5:55 pushed the lead back to 109-101. De'Aaron Fox's driving layup at Q4 4:28 and Wembanyama's three-pointer at Q4 2:40 sealed it. Final: SA 121, MIN 111.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi SA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 10:34 | Vassell running layup + FT | MIN 88, SA 101 | $0.967 | 76.4 | 95/96c |
| Q4 8:38 | Beringer dunk | MIN 95, SA 103 | $0.925 | 28.8 | 91/92c |
| Q4 6:15 | Wembanyama running dunk | MIN 101, SA 107 | $0.863 | 58.1 | 92/93c |
| Q4 0:00 | End of game | MIN 111, SA 121 | $0.950 | 64.5 | – |
Decision Point: Exit all Long SA positions at Q4 0:00
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi SA bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | MIN 111, SA 121 | $0.950 | 64.5 | +0.05 | – |
Known at the time: The game had ended. All three positions exited at $0.950 — the game signal at the final buzzer. RSI was 64.5 (neutral), MACD histogram +0.05. The V-bottom recovery had completed its full arc.
The decision: Exit all three Long SA positions at $0.950.
Final Accounting
The Minnesota vs San Antonio market analysis Oct 31 produced three completed Long SA trades, all entered during the Q1-Q2 oversold phase and exited at game's end.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Game Signal return | Kalshi entry (ask) | Kalshi exit (bid) | Kalshi return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long SA | $0.632 (Q1 4:51) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +50.3% | 82c | – | – |
| 2 | Long SA | $0.560 (Q2 4:45) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +69.6% | 73c | – | – |
| 3 | Long SA | $0.483 (Q2 3:21) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +96.7% | 66c | – | – |
Average: Game Signal +72.2%
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
The Minnesota vs San Antonio market analysis Oct 31 is a clear example of the V-Bottom Recovery pattern. A V-Bottom Recovery occurs when a team's game signal plunges sharply, finds a floor, and climbs back — forming a V shape on the chart. Here, San Antonio's game signal dropped from $0.857 at Q1 7:51 to $0.426 at Q2 1:20 — a 43-cent decline — before recovering to $0.950 by the final buzzer. The three entries at $0.632, $0.560, and $0.483 each caught a different stage of the trough, with RSI readings of 18.9, 21.4, and 32.8 confirming the oversold conditions that defined the bottom. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
This Minnesota vs San Antonio market analysis Oct 31 demonstrates how a heavily favored team can trade at near-even-money mid-game, creating the entry conditions that the V-Bottom Recovery pattern is designed to capture.
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