2026-10-31
Login to see the interactive sport charts →
Arizona vs Texas Tech market analysis Oct 31: The Setup
Asset: Texas Tech Red Raiders (home favorite) | Opening: $0.652 | Spread: TTU -3.5 | Kalshi: –
The Arizona vs Texas Tech market analysis Oct 31 opens with two 6-1 teams meeting at Galaxy Stadium in Lubbock, a matchup carrying genuine Big 12 weight. Texas Tech entered as a 3.5-point home favorite at $0.652, backed by a ground game led by Thomas Castellanos and J'Koby Williams. Arizona countered with Noah Fifita, who would finish 33-of-45 for 417 yards — but the Wildcats' second-quarter surge would create the trade setup.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — TTU's game signal plunged from $0.774 to $0.309 across a seven-minute stretch in Q2, then climbed back to $0.950 by game's end, tracing a sharp V on the chart.
Going in: At $0.652, TTU was a modest favorite; a buy signal would require the price to drop well below that opening, creating a spread-relative oversold condition worth entering.
Who Decided It
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1): Thomas Castellanos ran 19 times for 117 yards and a touchdown, threw for two more scores, and J'Koby Williams added 175 rushing yards including a decisive 64-yard touchdown run with 2:05 left.
- Arizona Wildcats (6-2): Fifita's 417-yard performance was undermined by Kedrick Reescano's two short-yardage touchdowns being the team's only scores; the Wildcats managed just 18 rushing yards on nine Reescano carries outside of those scores.
First Quarter: Early Momentum Shift
Outlook check: The opening price of $0.652 suggested TTU as a comfortable favorite — that held through the first score.
Michael Salgado-Medina's 35-yard field goal put Arizona up 3-0 at Q1 11:35, nudging TTU's price down to $0.609. Texas Tech answered with a 13-play, 75-yard drive capped by Thomas Castellanos finding Terrance Carter Jr. on a 24-yard touchdown pass at Q1 7:03, pushing the game signal to $0.733 with RSI climbing to 70.2 — the first overbought reading. LaDamion Guyton's sack of Noah Fifita at Q1 5:27 extended TTU's momentum, driving RSI to 76.2 and the price to $0.774. The MACD bearish cross at Q1 2:58 ($0.698, RSI 41.8) signaled the early surge was fading.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TTU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | ARIZ 0, TTU 0 | $0.652 | – | – |
| Q1 11:35 | Salgado-Medina 35-yd FG | ARIZ 3, TTU 0 | $0.609 | – | – |
| Q1 7:03 | Castellanos TD pass to Carter Jr. | ARIZ 3, TTU 7 | $0.733 | 70.2 | – |
| Q1 5:27 | Guyton sacks Fifita | ARIZ 3, TTU 7 | $0.774 | 76.2 | – |
| Q1 2:58 | MACD bearish cross | ARIZ 3, TTU 7 | $0.698 | 41.8 | – |
| Q1 0:00 | End Q1 | ARIZ 3, TTU 7 | $0.747 | 55.2 | – |
Decision Point: Stay Out — Overbought RSI Fading
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TTU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:58 | ARIZ 3, TTU 7 | $0.698 | 41.8 | Bearish cross | – |
Known at the time: RSI had exited overbought territory and the MACD printed a bearish cross. TTU led 7-3 but the price had already pulled back from $0.774 to $0.698.
The decision: Stay out. The price was still above the opening ($0.652) and no oversold condition had formed — no entry criteria met.
Outlook for Q2: Watch for Arizona to respond. Noah Fifita finds rhythm and TTU's price drops below $0.50, an oversold entry could develop.
Second Quarter: The V-Bottom Forms
Outlook check: The Q1 outlook called for a potential Arizona response — it arrived with force.
Isaiah Mizell turned a short Fifita pass into a 94-yard touchdown at Q2 10:02, collapsing TTU's price from $0.756 to $0.572 and sending RSI to 19.6 — deeply oversold. Arizona then ran a 14-play, 89-yard drive over seven minutes, with RSI pinned below 30 the entire way. The price ground lower: $0.497 at Q2 3:58 when RSI briefly exited oversold, then back down to $0.394 at Q2 3:23 as Brice Pollock's pass interference penalty on an incomplete Fifita deep ball kept the drive alive. Kedrick Reescano's 5-yard touchdown run at Q2 1:56 pushed the price to its session low of $0.309, RSI 17.6 — the deepest oversold reading of the game. Stone Harrington's 29-yard field goal at Q2 0:24 trimmed the deficit to 17-10 at the half.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TTU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:02 | Mizell 94-yd TD catch | ARIZ 10, TTU 7 | $0.572 | 19.6 | – |
| Q2 3:58 | RSI exits oversold | ARIZ 10, TTU 7 | $0.497 | 41.3 | – |
| Q2 3:23 | Pass interference on Pollock | ARIZ 10, TTU 7 | $0.394 | 25.6 | – |
| Q2 1:56 | Reescano 5-yd TD run | ARIZ 17, TTU 7 | $0.309 | 17.6 | – |
| Q2 1:02 | MACD bullish cross / RSI exits oversold | ARIZ 17, TTU 7 | $0.353 | 39.1 | – |
| Q2 0:24 | Harrington 29-yd FG | ARIZ 17, TTU 10 | $0.373 | 45.2 | – |
Decision Point 1: Trade 1 Entry — Long TTU at $0.394
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TTU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 3:23 | ARIZ 10, TTU 7 | $0.394 | 25.6 | -0.19 (hist) | – |
Known at the time: The Arizona vs Texas Tech market analysis Oct 31 shows TTU's price had fallen from $0.774 to $0.394 — a 38-cent drop — while RSI sat at 25.6, deep in oversold territory. The MACD histogram was negative at -0.19. The trigger was Brice Pollock's pass interference penalty on an incomplete deep ball, keeping Arizona's drive alive with the score still 10-7.
The decision: Enter Long TTU at $0.394. The price had dropped 39.5% below the opening against a team favored by 3.5 points, with RSI confirming oversold conditions.
Outlook for Q3: TTU needs a scoring response in the second half. A MACD bullish cross or RSI recovery above 40 would confirm the position.
Decision Point 2: Trade 2 Entry — Long TTU at $0.309
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TTU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 1:56 | ARIZ 17, TTU 7 | $0.309 | 17.6 | -0.90 (hist) | – |
Known at the time: Reescano's touchdown run extended Arizona's lead to 17-7. RSI collapsed to 17.6 — the lowest reading of the game. MACD histogram deepened to -0.90. TTU was now a 10-point underdog despite entering as a 3.5-point favorite.
The decision: Add Long TTU at $0.309. The extreme oversold reading at RSI 17.6 with the spread-relative price dislocation warranted a second position.
Outlook for Q3: TTU must score early in the third to begin the recovery. A failure to score on the opening drive would pressure both positions.
Third Quarter: The Recovery Begins
Outlook check: The Q2 outlook called for an early TTU scoring response — it arrived on the opening drive.
Thomas Castellanos capped a 12-play, 75-yard drive with an 8-yard touchdown run at Q3 10:02, tying the game at 17 and lifting TTU's price to $0.588 with RSI jumping to 70.5. Arizona answered with Reescano's second rushing touchdown at Q3 5:34 (PAT blocked by TTU), making it 23-17 and dropping the price to $0.384. Castellanos then hit Kenny Johnson on a 27-yard touchdown pass at Q3 2:33 — the game's third lead change — pushing TTU to $0.616. A MACD bullish cross confirmed at the same moment. Kenny Johnson's 75-yard punt return touchdown was nullified by a holding penalty at Q3 1:03. TTU led 24-23 at quarter's end, price $0.761, RSI 73.4.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TTU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 10:02 | Castellanos 8-yd TD run | ARIZ 17, TTU 17 | $0.588 | 70.5 | – |
| Q3 5:34 | Reescano 1-yd TD run (PAT blocked) | ARIZ 23, TTU 17 | $0.384 | 31.6 | – |
| Q3 2:33 | Castellanos TD pass to Johnson | ARIZ 23, TTU 24 | $0.616 | 70.5 | – |
| Q3 0:00 | End Q3 | ARIZ 23, TTU 24 | $0.761 | 73.4 | – |
Decision Point: Hold — Recovery on Track
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TTU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 0:00 | ARIZ 23, TTU 24 | $0.761 | 73.4 | Bullish | – |
Known at the time: Both long positions were profitable — Trade 1 up from $0.394 to $0.761 (+93%), Trade 2 up from $0.309 to $0.761 (+146%). RSI was overbought at 73.4 but TTU held the lead.
The decision: Hold both positions. TTU led by one with a full quarter remaining; the V-bottom recovery was well underway.
Outlook for Q4: TTU needs to extend the lead. Any Arizona score could compress the price; watch for RSI to stay above 60 as confirmation.
Fourth Quarter: Sealing the Trade
Outlook check: The Q3 outlook called for TTU to extend the lead — Stone Harrington's 42-yard field goal at Q4 14:43 did exactly that, making it 27-23.
A bearish divergence signal fired at Q4 13:56 (RSI 67.4, lower than the prior peak of 73.4 despite a higher game signal of $0.764), followed by two MACD bearish crosses at Q4 13:08 and Q4 8:01. Cameron Dickey fumbled at Q4 8:01, recovered by Arizona at the TTU 43, but the Wildcats went three-and-out. John Curry sacked Fifita for the third time at Q4 10:17; A.J. Holmes Jr. added a 10-yard sack at Q4 3:45, pushing TTU's price to $0.928. Then J'Koby Williams broke a 64-yard touchdown run at Q4 2:05, extending the lead to 34-23 and sending RSI to 81.6. Salgado-Medina's 22-yard field goal at Q4 0:22 made the final 34-26.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TTU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 14:43 | Harrington 42-yd FG | ARIZ 23, TTU 27 | $0.736 | 64.2 | – |
| Q4 13:56 | Bearish divergence signal | ARIZ 23, TTU 27 | $0.764 | 67.4 | – |
| Q4 8:01 | Dickey fumble, recovered by ARIZ | ARIZ 23, TTU 27 | $0.688 | 44.6 | – |
| Q4 3:45 | Holmes Jr. sacks Fifita | ARIZ 23, TTU 27 | $0.928 | 73.3 | – |
| Q4 2:05 | Williams 64-yd TD run | ARIZ 23, TTU 34 | $0.998 | 81.6 | – |
| Q4 0:22 | Salgado-Medina 22-yd FG | ARIZ 26, TTU 34 | $0.998 | 77.4 | – |
| Q4 0:00 | End of game | ARIZ 26, TTU 34 | $0.950 | 78.8 | – |
Decision Point: Exit Both Positions at Game's End
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TTU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | ARIZ 26, TTU 34 | $0.950 | 78.8 | -0.68 (hist) | – |
Known at the time: The game ended with TTU winning 34-26. Both positions exit at $0.950 per the system's end-of-game exit signal.
The decision: Exit both Long TTU positions. Trade 1 closes at +141.0%; Trade 2 closes at +207.4%.
Final Accounting
The Arizona vs Texas Tech market analysis Oct 31 produced two completed Long TTU trades from the V-bottom recovery structure in Q2.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long TTU | $0.394 (Q2 3:23) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +141.0% |
| 2 | Long TTU | $0.309 (Q2 1:56) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +207.4% |
| Average | +174.2% |
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
The Arizona vs Texas Tech market analysis Oct 31 is a clear example of the V-Bottom Recovery pattern in college football. A V-Bottom Recovery occurs when a team's game signal plunges sharply, forms a low, and climbs back at least 30 points — tracing a V on the chart. Here, TTU's price fell from $0.774 at Q1 5:27 to $0.309 at Q2 1:56 — a 46.5-cent drop driven by Mizell's 94-yard touchdown and Reescano's two rushing scores — before recovering to $0.950 by game's end, a 64.1-cent climb. The two entry points at $0.394 and $0.309 captured the bottom of that V, with J'Koby Williams's 64-yard touchdown run in Q4 providing the final push that confirmed the recovery. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
This Arizona vs Texas Tech market analysis Oct 31 demonstrates how a spread-favored home team can generate deep oversold readings mid-game and still recover to cover — the core premise of the V-Bottom Recovery trade.
Explore more NCAAF market analysis on SportChartz.