2026-10-31
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Auburn vs Ole Miss market analysis Oct 31: The Setup
Asset: Ole Miss Rebels (home favorite) | Opening: $0.759 | Spread: MISS -10.5 | Kalshi: –
This Auburn vs Ole Miss market analysis Oct 31 opens with Ole Miss installed as a 10.5-point home favorite at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, carrying a 5-2 record into Halloween against Auburn's 4-3 squad. The Rebels had the talent edge on paper, but the game signal needed to hold above the spread-implied threshold for the position to stay clean.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — the MISS game signal dropped from $0.839 to a low of $0.619, then climbed steadily to $0.950 at the exit, tracing a clear V on the chart.
Going in: The opening price of $0.759 reflected a solid favorite; a buy signal would require the game signal to pull back sharply and show oversold momentum before re-entry.
Who Decided It
- Ole Miss Rebels (6-2): Trinidad Chambliss ran for 65 yards and a touchdown and threw for 263 yards with two scores; Shekai Mills-Knight and Deuce Knight each added rushing touchdowns.
- Auburn Tigers (4-4): Byrum Brown completed 25 of 38 passes for 195 yards and scored on the ground, but was sacked three times and the offense stalled after Auburn's lone third-quarter touchdown.
First Quarter: Scoreless Positioning
Outlook check: The opening outlook called for a pullback entry; the first quarter produced no scoring and no extreme RSI readings, so the position remained on the sideline.
Ole Miss opened at $0.759 and drifted upward through a scoreless first quarter. The Rebels ran a 17-play, 89-yard drive that began in Q1 and bled into the second quarter, keeping possession and gradually pushing the game signal to $0.813 by the end of Q1 with RSI at 59.2 — neutral territory. Auburn's lone possession of note covered 40 yards over 12 plays before punting. No extreme readings developed; the chart was building a base.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi MISS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | AUB 0, MISS 0 | $0.759 | – | – |
| Q1 0:00 | End of Q1 | AUB 0, MISS 0 | $0.813 | 59.2 | – |
Decision Point: Stay Out — No Signal Yet
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi MISS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | AUB 0, MISS 0 | $0.813 | 59.2 | – | – |
Known at the time: RSI was neutral at 59.2, the game signal had drifted up modestly, and no oversold condition had formed. The Auburn vs Ole Miss market analysis Oct 31 showed no actionable entry.
The decision: Stay out. No technical setup had developed; the signal needed a sharper dislocation before a long entry was justified.
Outlook for the next quarter: A MISS score would push the signal higher and potentially overbought; a quick Auburn response could create the oversold dip worth buying.
Second Quarter: The V-Bottom Forms
Outlook check: The outlook for a dislocation proved correct — the second quarter delivered both an overbought spike and a sharp oversold plunge within eight minutes.
Will Echoles punched in a 1-yard touchdown run at Q2 14:57, pushing MISS to $0.839 and RSI to 66.6. RSI crossed into overbought territory briefly at Q2 14:44 (70.5) before exiting at Q2 13:34 (52.4), signaling the spike had faded. Auburn answered with a 14-play, 75-yard drive capped by Byrum Brown's 21-yard touchdown pass to Chas Nimrod at Q2 7:59 — the extra point was blocked — dropping MISS to $0.722 with RSI at 26.2. Then Trinidad Chambliss threw an interception to AnQuon Fegans at Q2 7:38, sending the signal to $0.652 and RSI to 20.9. The bottom arrived at Q2 7:25 when a pass interference penalty on Antonio Kite moved Auburn to the MISS 16 — RSI hit 18.0, the deepest oversold reading of the game.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi MISS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:57 | Echoles 1-yd TD run | AUB 0, MISS 7 | $0.839 | 66.6 | – |
| Q2 13:34 | RSI exits overbought | AUB 0, MISS 7 | $0.822 | 52.4 | – |
| Q2 7:59 | Brown TD pass to Nimrod | AUB 6, MISS 7 | $0.722 | 26.2 | – |
| Q2 7:38 | Chambliss INT, Fegans | AUB 6, MISS 7 | $0.652 | 20.9 | – |
| Q2 7:25 | ENTRY: Long MISS | AUB 6, MISS 7 | $0.619 | 18.0 | – |
Decision Point: Buy MISS at the V-Bottom
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi MISS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 7:25 | AUB 6, MISS 7 | $0.619 | 18.0 | -1.86 hist | – |
Known at the time: The game signal had fallen from $0.839 to $0.619 — a 22-point drop — in under eight minutes. RSI was at 18.0, deeply oversold. The MACD histogram sat at -1.86 with the line at -3.38, confirming heavy downward momentum. The trigger was the pass interference penalty on Kite that gave Auburn a first down at the MISS 16 with a one-point lead in jeopardy.
The decision: Long MISS at $0.619. The game signal had reached extreme oversold territory with RSI at 18.0, and Ole Miss still led 7-6 with possession about to change hands under pressure — a mean-reversion setup.
Outlook for the next quarter: Byrum Brown fumbled on the very next play, recovered by Ole Miss. Shekai Mills-Knight scored from 1 yard at Q2 2:26 to push MISS to $0.861. Auburn added a 29-yard Alex McPherson field goal at Q2 0:05 to close the half at AUB 9, MISS 14, game signal $0.812.
Third Quarter: Confirmation and Surge
Outlook check: The long MISS position entered the second half with the game signal at $0.812 — above entry — and the lead intact at five points.
Lucas Carneiro hit a 20-yard field goal at Q3 9:46 (MISS $0.862, RSI 49.0), extending the lead to eight. Auburn drove back with a 10-play, 75-yard march ending in Byrum Brown's 7-yard touchdown run at Q3 6:20 — the two-point conversion failed — cutting the deficit to two and dropping MISS to $0.748 with RSI at 19.4, a second oversold cluster. The RSI exited oversold at Q3 5:29 (35.5), and the MACD produced a bullish cross at Q3 4:37 with the histogram turning positive — both signals came after the entry and added no reason for it, but they confirmed the recovery was underway. Trinidad Chambliss then broke a 26-yard touchdown run at Q3 3:25, pushing MISS to $0.888 and RSI to 72.5. The quarter ended AUB 15, MISS 24, game signal $0.941.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi MISS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:46 | Carneiro 20-yd FG | AUB 9, MISS 17 | $0.862 | 49.0 | – |
| Q3 6:20 | Brown 7-yd TD run | AUB 15, MISS 17 | $0.748 | 19.4 | – |
| Q3 5:29 | RSI exits oversold | AUB 15, MISS 17 | $0.762 | 35.5 | – |
| Q3 4:37 | MACD bullish cross | AUB 15, MISS 17 | $0.799 | 56.1 | – |
| Q3 3:25 | Chambliss 26-yd TD run | AUB 15, MISS 24 | $0.888 | 72.5 | – |
| Q3 0:00 | End of Q3 | AUB 15, MISS 24 | $0.941 | 68.9 | – |
Decision Point: Hold — Position Strengthening
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi MISS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 0:00 | AUB 15, MISS 24 | $0.941 | 68.9 | – | – |
Known at the time: The game signal had climbed from $0.619 to $0.941, a 32-point gain on the position. RSI at 68.9 was approaching overbought but had not crossed. Ole Miss led by nine with a full quarter remaining.
The decision: Hold. The position was profitable and the lead was growing; no exit signal had triggered.
Outlook for the next quarter: A MISS score early in Q4 would push the signal into the high $0.90s and approach the exit threshold.
Fourth Quarter: Runaway and Exit
Outlook check: The outlook for an early MISS score materialized immediately — Ole Miss scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to seal the game.
Chambliss hit Caleb Cunningham on a 6-yard touchdown pass at Q4 12:53 (MISS $0.983, RSI 77.9). Tah'j Butler sacked Byrum Brown for a 10-yard loss at Q4 12:12, RSI reached 81.8. Traylon Ray returned a punt 25 yards to the Auburn 42 at Q4 11:21, RSI 82.4. Chambliss then found Horatio Fields on a 28-yard touchdown strike at Q4 10:23 (MISS $0.999, RSI 81.5). Suntarine Perkins sacked Brown again at Q4 7:48. Deuce Knight capped the scoring with a 17-yard touchdown run at Q4 3:27, making it 45-15. The game signal locked at $0.999 through the final minutes, and the exit was taken at the final whistle.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi MISS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 12:53 | Chambliss TD pass to Cunningham | AUB 15, MISS 31 | $0.983 | 77.9 | – |
| Q4 12:12 | Butler sacks Brown | AUB 15, MISS 31 | $0.996 | 81.8 | – |
| Q4 10:23 | Chambliss TD pass to Fields | AUB 15, MISS 38 | $0.999 | 81.5 | – |
| Q4 3:27 | Knight 17-yd TD run | AUB 15, MISS 45 | $0.999 | 81.4 | – |
| Q4 0:00 | EXIT: Long MISS +53.4% | AUB 15, MISS 45 | $0.950 | 93.1 | – |
Decision Point: Exit at Final Whistle
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi MISS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | AUB 15, MISS 45 | $0.950 | 93.1 | -0.07 hist | – |
Known at the time: The game had ended. RSI spiked to 93.1 at the final gun — extreme overbought — and the game signal settled at $0.950 as the system recorded the exit. The position had run from $0.619 to $0.950 over roughly two and a half quarters.
The decision: Exit. Game over; position closed at $0.950 for a +53.4% return on the long MISS trade.
Final Accounting
The Auburn vs Ole Miss market analysis Oct 31 produced one completed trade with a clean entry and exit.
| Trade | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long MISS (Q2 7:25) | $0.619 | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +53.4% |
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
This Auburn vs Ole Miss market analysis Oct 31 shows a V-Bottom Recovery: the Ole Miss game signal fell from $0.839 to $0.619 — a 22-point drop driven by Byrum Brown's touchdown pass to Chas Nimrod and Trinidad Chambliss's interception to AnQuon Fegans — before recovering to $0.950 at the final whistle. A V-Bottom Recovery occurs when a team's game signal plunges, turns, and climbs back at least 30 points, forming a V on the chart and offering a buy near the trough. Here the recovery spanned 33 points from entry to exit, with the second-half surge by Chambliss and the Ole Miss defense sealing the 45-15 final. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
The market analysis for this game confirms that the deepest oversold reading — RSI 18.0 at Q2 7:25 — marked the precise entry window, and the Auburn vs Ole Miss market analysis Oct 31 stands as a clear example of mean reversion in a live NCAAF market.
Explore more NCAAF market analysis on SportChartz.