2026-10-24
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Baylor vs Kansas market analysis Oct 24: The Setup
Asset: Kansas Jayhawks (home favorite) | Opening: $0.404 | Spread: KU -1.5 | Kalshi: —
This Baylor vs Kansas market analysis Oct 24 finds KU entering at 2-4 on the season, hosting a Baylor squad at 4-2 — a matchup where the spread made Kansas a slight home favorite despite a losing record. The game signal opened at $0.404, reflecting the market's modest lean toward the Jayhawks while acknowledging Baylor's stronger résumé.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — KU's game signal plunged from $0.404 to a low of $0.078 at the end of the third quarter, then reversed sharply to close at $1.000, tracing a deep V on the chart.
Going in: At $0.404, Kansas was a marginal buy if the offense could protect the ball; two early turnovers would push the signal well below fair value and create the entry conditions the system targets.
Who Decided It
- Kansas Jayhawks (3-4): Isaiah Marshall went 17-of-29 for 212 yards and two touchdown passes, added a 15-yard touchdown run in the final 1:13, and Dylan Edwards carried 30 times for 156 yards to grind out the comeback.
- Baylor Bears (4-3): DJ Lagway completed 20-of-31 for 236 yards and one touchdown but threw a critical interception to Trey Lathan in the fourth quarter; Devon Jordan's 42-yard pick-six in the third quarter had looked like the game-sealing blow.
First Quarter: Early Volatility
Outlook check: The opening $0.404 signal suggested a competitive game; the first possession immediately tested that thesis when Marshall was intercepted by Micah Gifford at the Baylor 5-yard line.
KU's first drive ended in a turnover — Gifford's interception at Q1 13:10 dropped the signal to $0.363. The Jayhawks recovered on the next possession: an 11-play, 66-yard drive capped by Marshall's 22-yard touchdown pass to Carson Bruhn at Q1 6:03 pushed the signal to $0.568 and RSI to 78.1 — the first overbought reading of the game. Baylor answered quickly; Dawson Pendergrass punched in a 1-yard run at Q1 3:29 to tie it 7-7, pulling the signal back to $0.416. Kansas went three-and-out to close the quarter, ending at $0.393 with RSI at 44.4.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi KU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | BAY 0, KU 0 | $0.404 | — | — |
| Q1 13:10 | Marshall INT (Gifford) | BAY 0, KU 0 | $0.363 | — | — |
| Q1 6:03 | Bruhn 22-yd TD catch | BAY 0, KU 7 | $0.568 | 78.1 | — |
| Q1 3:29 | Pendergrass 1-yd TD run | BAY 7, KU 7 | $0.416 | 42.5 | — |
| Q1 0:00 | End of Q1 | BAY 7, KU 7 | $0.393 | 44.4 | — |
Decision Point: Stay Out — No Qualifying Signal Yet
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi KU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | BAY 7, KU 7 | $0.393 | 44.4 | — | — |
Known at the time: The quarter ended tied 7-7. The signal had oscillated between $0.363 and $0.568 without sustaining a tradeable oversold condition. The MACD bearish cross at Q1 5:18 signaled fading momentum after the Bruhn touchdown, but no entry threshold had been reached.
The decision: Stay out. The signal was near fair value and RSI was neutral; no setup had formed.
Outlook for the next quarter: A missed field goal or turnover early in Q2 could push KU below $0.35 and into oversold territory — the level where a long entry becomes viable.
Second Quarter: The First Entry
Outlook check: The outlook for a Q2 oversold entry proved accurate. Martin Connington's 49-yard field goal attempt missed at Q2 10:39, dropping the signal to $0.380 and triggering a MACD bearish cross.
The missed field goal handed Baylor possession, and DJ Lagway drove the Bears into KU territory before Kevin Oatis sacked him for a 13-yard loss at Q2 7:41, forcing a turnover on downs. Between those plays, the signal compressed further. With the score still 7-7 and both offenses stalling, RSI slid to 25.3 — deeply oversold — as Lagway picked up 20 yards on a rush to the KU 29 at Q2 8:50.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi KU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:39 | Connington 49-yd FG missed | BAY 7, KU 7 | $0.380 | 36.2 | — |
| Q2 8:50 | Lagway 20-yd rush to KU29 | BAY 7, KU 7 | $0.322 | 25.3 | — |
| Q2 7:41 | Oatis sacks Lagway, turnover on downs | BAY 7, KU 7 | $0.439 | 64.7 | — |
| Q2 0:00 | End of Q2 | BAY 7, KU 7 | $0.373 | 38.5 | — |
Decision Point: Enter Long KU at Q2 8:50
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi KU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:50 | BAY 7, KU 7 | $0.322 | 25.3 | −0.91 | — |
Known at the time: The Baylor vs Kansas market analysis Oct 24 shows KU's signal at $0.322 — 8.2 points below the opening price — with RSI at 25.3 (deeply oversold) and MACD histogram at −0.91. The score was still tied; the signal's drop reflected momentum, not a deficit. Baylor was in KU territory but had not scored.
The decision: Enter Long KU at $0.322. RSI at 25.3 with the game tied represented a signal trading well below its fundamental value against the spread. The MACD was still negative, but the oversold depth justified the entry.
Outlook for the next quarter: A KU stop and scoring drive would confirm the entry. A Baylor touchdown to open the second half would stress the position but not necessarily invalidate it.
Third Quarter: The Second Entry
Outlook check: The Q2 outlook did not hold. Baylor scored twice in the third quarter, and KU's game signal collapsed to its lowest point of the game.
The half opened with a MACD bullish cross at Q3 14:32 ($0.469), suggesting a recovery — but it lasted one possession. On KU's first snap of the third quarter, Marshall's pass was intercepted by Devon Jordan at the KU 42, returned 42 yards for a touchdown. The signal cratered to $0.230 with RSI at 24.3. Marshall was then sacked by Kyland Reed for 14 yards at Q3 11:46. Connington's 40-yard field goal at Q3 10:30 trimmed the deficit to 14-10, but Lagway answered with an 8-yard touchdown pass to Jayden McGowan at Q3 6:41, pushing Baylor's lead to 21-10. Marshall was sacked again by Jae'Lin Battle at Q3 6:34. The signal fell to $0.078 at the end of the quarter — an 11-point deficit with 15 minutes left.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi KU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 13:29 | Jordan 42-yd INT return TD | BAY 14, KU 7 | $0.230 | 24.3 | — |
| Q3 10:30 | Connington 40-yd FG | BAY 14, KU 10 | $0.271 | 40.8 | — |
| Q3 6:41 | McGowan 8-yd TD catch | BAY 21, KU 10 | $0.116 | 32.7 | — |
| Q3 0:00 | End of Q3 | BAY 21, KU 10 | $0.078 | 28.9 | — |
Decision Point: Enter Long KU at Q3 13:29
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi KU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 13:29 | BAY 14, KU 7 | $0.230 | 24.3 | −0.89 | — |
Known at the time: Devon Jordan's pick-six had just put Baylor up 14-7. The signal dropped to $0.230, RSI hit 24.3 — a second oversold extreme — and MACD histogram was −0.89. KU still had a full quarter and a half of football remaining against a spread that opened at −1.5.
The decision: Enter Long KU at $0.230. The signal was pricing KU as a heavy underdog despite a one-score deficit with the entire second half ahead. The second oversold reading, with RSI at 24.3, provided the entry trigger for Trade 2.
Outlook for the next quarter: KU needed a scoring drive to stabilize the signal. A second Baylor score would push the position deeper underwater, but the oversold depth suggested the market had overreacted.
Fourth Quarter: The Recovery
Outlook check: The Q3 outlook held. KU's 12-play, 75-yard drive — begun in the third quarter — ended with Marshall's 34-yard touchdown pass to Nik McMillan at Q4 14:53, cutting the deficit to 21-16. The signal jumped to $0.212 at the start of the drive's scoring play, then RSI reached 73.3 at Q4 13:19 as KU's momentum built.
Connington added a 42-yard field goal at Q4 9:45 (21-19). Trey Lathan intercepted Lagway at Q4 6:43, giving KU the ball at the KU 31. After a MACD bearish cross at Q4 4:58 dropped the signal back to $0.191, Rhett Armstrong's 42-yard field goal at Q4 2:40 put Baylor back up 24-19. The signal fell to $0.131. Then, on a six-play, 71-yard drive in 1:20, Marshall scrambled 15 yards for a touchdown at Q4 1:13 — RSI spiked to 86.9, the highest reading of the game, and the signal surged to $0.767. Baylor drove to the KU 27 but Armstrong's 45-yard field goal attempt was blocked by Bryson Herold at Q4 0:18, sealing the 25-24 win.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi KU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 14:53 | McMillan 34-yd TD catch | BAY 21, KU 16 | $0.212 | 63.5 | — |
| Q4 9:45 | Connington 42-yd FG | BAY 21, KU 19 | $0.312 | 55.6 | — |
| Q4 6:43 | Lathan INT (Lagway) | BAY 21, KU 19 | $0.408 | 68.5 | — |
| Q4 2:40 | Armstrong 42-yd FG | BAY 24, KU 19 | $0.131 | 34.2 | — |
| Q4 1:13 | Marshall 15-yd TD run | BAY 24, KU 25 | $0.767 | 86.9 | — |
| Q4 0:18 | Armstrong 45-yd FG blocked | BAY 24, KU 25 | $0.999 | 74.5 | — |
| Q4 0:00 | End of Q4 | BAY 24, KU 25 | $0.950 | 73.7 | — |
Decision Point: Exit Both Trades at Q4 0:00
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi KU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | BAY 24, KU 25 | $0.950 | 73.7 | +4.04 | — |
Known at the time: The game ended with KU winning 25-24. The signal closed at $0.950 with RSI at 73.7 and MACD histogram at +4.04. Both long positions exited at the final whistle.
The decision: Exit both Long KU positions. Trade 1 (entered $0.322) closed at $0.950 for +194.7%. Trade 2 (entered $0.230) closed at $0.950 for +313.0%.
Final Accounting
The Baylor vs Kansas market analysis Oct 24 produced two completed trades, both Long KU, with exits at the final whistle.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long KU | $0.322 (Q2 8:50) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +194.7% |
| 2 | Long KU | $0.230 (Q3 13:29) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +313.0% |
| Average | +253.8% |
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
The Baylor vs Kansas market analysis Oct 24 is a study in the V-Bottom Recovery pattern. A V-Bottom Recovery occurs when a team's game signal plunges sharply, finds a floor, and climbs back — forming a V on the chart. Here, KU's signal dropped from $0.404 at kickoff to $0.078 at the end of the third quarter — an 11-point deficit with one quarter remaining — before reversing to $1.000 at the final whistle. The two entry points at $0.322 and $0.230 captured the descent's oversold extremes, and Marshall's fourth-quarter touchdown run completed the V. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
This Baylor vs Kansas market analysis Oct 24 demonstrates how a V-bottom recovery can develop across multiple quarters, with each oversold entry adding depth to the position before the reversal delivers.
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