2026-10-24
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Boise State vs Washington State market analysis Oct 24: The Setup
Asset: Washington State Cougars (home underdog) | Opening: $0.079 | Spread: BOIS -14.5 | Kalshi: 14/15c
This Boise State vs Washington State market analysis Oct 24 opens on a lopsided pre-game picture: Boise State arrived at Martin Stadium at 5-1, favored by 14.5, while Washington State entered 1-6 with a home crowd of just 2,730. WSU's game signal opened at $0.079 — the market already pricing a near-certain Bronco win. The question was whether the Cougars could generate enough in-game momentum to create a tradeable entry.
The Pattern: No Clear Opportunity — WSU's game signal never climbed high enough or held long enough to meet systematic entry criteria, and the fourth-quarter collapse left the signal pinned at $0.001.
Going in: At $0.079, WSU needed a sustained momentum shift — a scoring run that pushed the signal above $0.15 and held it there — to justify a long entry on the home side.
Who Decided It
- Boise State Broncos (6-1): Dylan Riley carried 13 times for 128 yards and two touchdowns, including a 72-yard burst in the fourth quarter; Maddux Madsen completed 14 of 23 passes for 149 yards and one touchdown to Cam Bates.
- Washington State Cougars (1-7): Owen Eshelman completed 21 of 40 passes for 191 yards but threw one interception and was sacked four times; the offense managed only 10 points and never threatened after halftime.
First Quarter: Early Pressure
Outlook check: The opening outlook required a WSU momentum shift. It did not arrive — Boise State scored first and WSU's signal fell further.
Lopez Sanusi sacked Owen Eshelman for a 12-yard loss at Q1 9:36, stalling WSU's first drive. After Max Dean's punt was muffed by Jeremyah Lane (recovered by Boise State), the Broncos converted: Sire Gaines ran 9 yards for a touchdown at Q1 4:24, pushing WSU's game signal down to $0.054 with RSI on WSU's line dropping to 27.8 — the first oversold reading of the game. Jayden Virgin-Morgan added a second sack of Eshelman at Q1 1:32, and the quarter ended with WSU's signal at $0.055, RSI 43.0.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi WSU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | BOIS 0, WSU 0 | $0.079 | — | 14/15c |
| Q1 9:36 | Eshelman sacked -12 yds (Sanusi) | BOIS 0, WSU 0 | $0.086 | 47.9 | 16/17c |
| Q1 4:24 | Sire Gaines 9 Yd TD run | BOIS 7, WSU 0 | $0.054 | 27.8 | 10/11c |
| Q1 1:32 | Eshelman sacked -10 yds (Virgin-Morgan) | BOIS 7, WSU 0 | $0.054 | 39.5 | 9/10c |
| Q1 0:00 | End Q1 | BOIS 7, WSU 0 | $0.055 | 43.0 | 9/10c |
Decision Point: Stay Out After Gaines Touchdown
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi WSU bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:24 | BOIS 7, WSU 0 | $0.054 | 27.8 | — | 10/11c |
Known at the time: WSU trailed 7-0 with RSI on WSU's line at 27.8 — oversold, but the game signal had only just dipped below $0.06. The Cougars had produced two punts and absorbed two sacks. No momentum reversal was visible.
The decision: Stay out. The oversold RSI reading was not accompanied by any positive price action on WSU's line, and the signal had not developed enough to identify a pattern. The Kalshi ask of 11c reflected the same skepticism.
Outlook for the next quarter: A WSU scoring drive that pushed the game signal above $0.12 would be the minimum condition to revisit a long entry.
Second Quarter: Brief Hope
Outlook check: The Q1 outlook required WSU to score and push the signal above $0.12. That condition was eventually met — but only at the very end of the half.
At Q2 11:29, a bullish divergence fired on WSU's line: the game signal made a lower low at $0.045 while RSI on WSU's line registered a higher low of 32.7, compared to the prior low of 25.3 at Q1 3:44. That divergence signaled weakening selling pressure. WSU then executed a 16-play, 73-yard drive capped by Kirby Vorhees's 1-yard touchdown run at Q2 0:31, lifting the game signal to $0.152 and RSI to 68.2. The momentum evaporated immediately: Canaan Moore hit a 28-yard field goal as time expired, and WSU's signal closed the half at $0.112, RSI 49.5.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi WSU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:29 | Bullish divergence signal | BOIS 7, WSU 0 | $0.045 | 32.7 | 9/10c |
| Q2 0:31 | Kirby Vorhees 1 Yd TD run | BOIS 7, WSU 7 | $0.152 | 68.2 | 20/21c |
| Q2 0:00 | Canaan Moore 28 Yd FG | BOIS 10, WSU 7 | $0.112 | 49.5 | 18/19c |
Decision Point: Divergence at Q2 11:29 — Not Enough
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi WSU bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:29 | BOIS 7, WSU 0 | $0.045 | 32.7 | — | 9/10c |
Known at the time: The Boise State vs Washington State market analysis Oct 24 shows a bullish divergence here — WSU's game signal at a lower low while RSI posted a higher low. That is a Phase 1 signal. However, WSU's signal was at $0.045, well below any meaningful entry threshold, and the game signal had not yet confirmed a reversal by moving higher.
The decision: Stay out. The divergence was noted, but the signal had not risen enough to meet the minimum profit threshold. The 9/10c Kalshi spread reflected a market still heavily against WSU.
Outlook for the next quarter: If WSU could hold the tie into the third quarter and push the game signal above $0.15, a long entry would become worth evaluating.
Third Quarter: Peak and Fade
Outlook check: The halftime outlook required WSU to sustain the tie and push above $0.15. The Cougars briefly met that condition — but could not hold it.
Jack Stevens's 47-yard field goal at Q3 5:53 tied the game at 10-10, lifting WSU's game signal to $0.179 and RSI on WSU's line to 61.4. That was WSU's peak: the game signal reached its maximum of $0.192 at Q3 7:14 when Eshelman completed a pass to Branden Ganashamoorthy for 18 yards. RSI on WSU's line hit 77.2 — overbought — at that same moment. The RSI exit-overbought signal fired at Q3 6:30 as RSI fell back to 61.4, confirming momentum was already fading before the field goal even went through. The quarter ended tied at 10-10, WSU's signal at $0.180, RSI 57.8.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi WSU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:41 | Punt return sets up WSU | BOIS 10, WSU 7 | $0.149 | 67.7 | 22/23c |
| Q3 6:30 | RSI exits overbought | BOIS 10, WSU 7 | $0.170 | 61.4 | 21/23c |
| Q3 5:53 | Jack Stevens 47 Yd FG | BOIS 10, WSU 10 | $0.179 | 61.4 | 24/25c |
| Q3 0:00 | End Q3 | BOIS 10, WSU 10 | $0.180 | 57.8 | 19/20c |
Decision Point: RSI Exit-Overbought at Q3 6:30
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi WSU bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 6:30 | BOIS 10, WSU 7 | $0.170 | 61.4 | — | 21/23c |
Known at the time: RSI on WSU's line had just exited overbought territory (down from 77.2), a bearish signal for WSU's momentum. The game signal was at $0.170 — the highest it had been — but the RSI exit warned that the push was losing steam.
The decision: Stay out. The RSI exit-overbought signal indicated WSU's momentum was fading. Entering a long on WSU at $0.170 with RSI already rolling over carried too much downside risk. The minimum profit threshold would require the signal to reach $0.187 or higher, and the technical picture did not support that.
Outlook for the next quarter: WSU needed to score first in the fourth to maintain any long case. A Boise State score would collapse the signal below $0.10 and end the opportunity.
Fourth Quarter: Collapse
Outlook check: The Q3 outlook required WSU to score first in the fourth. Boise State scored three touchdowns instead, and WSU's game signal went to zero.
Maddux Madsen found Cam Bates for a 6-yard touchdown at Q4 13:33, dropping WSU's signal to $0.078. Eshelman's interception — picked off by Boen Phelps at Q4 12:23 — set up Dylan Riley's 33-yard touchdown run at Q4 11:40, crashing WSU's signal to $0.014 with RSI on WSU's line at 28.9. A double-bottom signal fired at Q4 11:40 and RSI exited oversold at Q4 10:10 (RSI 31.4), but WSU's signal was already at $0.017 — far too low for any viable entry. Bol Bol sacked Eshelman for 11 yards at Q4 9:05, and Riley's 72-yard touchdown run at Q4 6:26 ended the contest. WSU's signal fell to $0.001, RSI locked at 25.4 for the final seven minutes. Lopez Sanusi added a fourth sack of Eshelman at Q4 5:00. The game ended BOIS 31, WSU 10.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi WSU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 13:33 | Cam Bates 6 Yd TD (Madsen pass) | BOIS 17, WSU 10 | $0.078 | 33.5 | 12/13c |
| Q4 12:23 | Eshelman INT (Phelps) | BOIS 17, WSU 10 | $0.036 | 31.7 | 3/4c |
| Q4 11:40 | Dylan Riley 33 Yd TD run | BOIS 24, WSU 10 | $0.014 | 28.9 | 1/2c |
| Q4 10:10 | RSI exits oversold | BOIS 24, WSU 10 | $0.017 | 31.4 | 0/1c |
| Q4 9:05 | Eshelman sacked -11 yds (Bol Bol) | BOIS 24, WSU 10 | $0.008 | 28.0 | 1/2c |
| Q4 6:26 | Dylan Riley 72 Yd TD run | BOIS 31, WSU 10 | $0.001 | 25.4 | 0/1c |
| Q4 0:00 | End Q4 | BOIS 31, WSU 10 | $0.000 | 17.0 | 0/1c |
Decision Point: Double Bottom at Q4 11:40 — Signal Too Low
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi WSU bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 11:40 | BOIS 24, WSU 10 | $0.014 | 28.9 | — | 1/2c |
Known at the time: A double-bottom pattern fired on WSU's line — the game signal returned near a prior low with RSI higher than the prior low reading. However, WSU's signal was at $0.014 with 11:40 remaining and a 14-point deficit. The Kalshi ask had collapsed to 2c.
The decision: Stay out. Even with the double-bottom signal, WSU's game signal at $0.014 offered no realistic path to the minimum 10% profit threshold under systematic criteria. The score and time remaining made a WSU comeback structurally implausible. No qualifying trade window opened.
Final Accounting
The Boise State vs Washington State market analysis Oct 24 produced no qualifying trade windows.
No qualifying trade windows were detected in this game. While technical signals fired — a bullish divergence at Q2 11:29, an RSI exit-overbought at Q3 6:30, and a double-bottom at Q4 11:40 — none met the systematic trading criteria for a complete entry and exit. WSU's game signal spent most of the game below $0.10, and the brief peak at $0.179 in the third quarter came with RSI already rolling over from overbought territory.
No Clear Opportunity in This Game
The Boise State vs Washington State market analysis Oct 24 illustrates the No Clear Opportunity pattern. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#no-clear-opportunity). In this game, WSU's signal opened at $0.079 and never developed the sustained momentum needed to create a viable entry: the Q3 peak at $0.179 arrived with RSI on WSU's line already exiting overbought at 77.2, and the fourth-quarter collapse drove the signal to $0.001 with RSI locked at 25.4 for the final seven minutes. The signals were present, but the price action never confirmed them. This Boise State vs Washington State market analysis Oct 24 is a study in why signal confirmation — not signal presence alone — determines whether a trade qualifies.
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