2026-10-24
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BYU vs UCF market analysis Oct 24: The Setup
Asset: BYU Cougars (road favorite) | Opening: $0.696 | Spread: BYU -7.5 | Kalshi: –
The BYU vs UCF market analysis Oct 24 opens with the Cougars entering Acrisure Bounce House at 6-0, a perfect record that priced them at $0.696 on the game signal. UCF came in at 3-3, a home underdog by 7.5 points. The setup was straightforward: a ranked road favorite against a .500 home team.
The Pattern: Dead Cat Bounce — BYU built an early lead, watched it evaporate three separate times, and each dip generated an oversold entry that bounced before the final collapse in double overtime.
Going in: At $0.696, BYU needed to hold serve on the road; any UCF scoring run that pushed the game signal below $0.55 would create a potential entry window.
Who Decided It
- UCF Knights (4-3): Keyone Jenkins finished 25-of-41 for 293 yards and three touchdown passes, adding a rushing score. His final throw — a 4-yard strike to Grayson Brousseau with a successful two-point conversion — ended it.
- BYU Cougars (6-1): Bear Bachmeier went 16-of-32 for 257 yards with two touchdown passes and a rushing score, but threw one interception and couldn't convert in the second overtime possession.
First Quarter: Favorite Surges
Outlook check: The opening price of $0.696 reflected BYU's road-favorite status, and the first quarter validated it immediately.
BYU's opening drive covered 84 yards in 11 plays. Bear Bachmeier capped it with a 27-yard touchdown pass to Kyler Kasper at Q1 8:19, pushing the game signal to $0.823 and RSI to 82.8 — deep overbought territory on BYU's line. UCF punted on its next possession, and Ken Talley sacked Bachmeier for a 5-yard loss at Q1 4:19, stalling BYU's follow-up drive. By quarter's end, the game signal had retreated to $0.747 with RSI cooling to 34.3.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi BYU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | BYU 0, UCF 0 | $0.696 | – | – |
| Q1 8:19 | Kasper 27-yd TD catch from Bachmeier | BYU 7, UCF 0 | $0.823 | 82.8 | – |
| Q1 4:59 | BYU punt after holding penalty | BYU 7, UCF 0 | $0.788 | 51.8 | – |
| Q1 1:06 | End of Q1 | BYU 7, UCF 0 | $0.747 | 34.3 | – |
Decision Point: Stay Out — Overbought at $0.823
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi BYU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:19 | BYU 7, UCF 0 | $0.823 | 82.8 | – | – |
Known at the time: RSI hit 82.8 immediately after the Kasper touchdown — well into overbought territory. The game signal had jumped from $0.696 to $0.823 in under seven minutes of game clock.
The decision: Stay out. Entering a long position at $0.823 with RSI above 80 offers no margin; the bounce has already happened. Wait for a pullback.
Outlook for Q2: If UCF scores to tie or take the lead, the game signal will compress toward $0.50. A drop below $0.55 with RSI in oversold territory would create the first entry candidate.
Second Quarter: First Bounce Entry
Outlook check: UCF delivered exactly the scoring run anticipated. Landen Chambers rushed for a 2-yard touchdown at Q2 13:44 to tie it 7-7, and Will Stone added a 20-yard field goal at Q2 8:10 to put UCF up 10-7. The game signal fell from $0.747 to $0.531 and RSI dropped to 19.2 — deeply oversold.
BYU called a timeout at Q2 9:43 with the score tied 7-7 and the game signal at $0.531. That timeout was the entry moment: RSI at 19.2 and MACD histogram at -0.67 confirmed the oversold read. BYU then drove 75 yards in eight plays, with Bachmeier punching in a 1-yard quarterback sneak at Q2 3:47 for a 14-10 lead. The game signal climbed to $0.751 and RSI reached 74.2 — the exit signal. Bachmeier then threw an interception to Tackett Curtis at Q2 1:22, and Keyone Jenkins hit Landen Chambers on a 6-yard touchdown pass at Q2 0:04 to send BYU into halftime trailing 14-17.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi BYU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:44 | Chambers 2-yd TD run | BYU 7, UCF 7 | $0.698 | 23.9 | – |
| Q2 9:43 | BYU timeout | BYU 7, UCF 7 | $0.531 | 19.2 | – |
| Q2 8:10 | Stone 20-yd FG | BYU 7, UCF 10 | $0.607 | 48.3 | – |
| Q2 3:47 | Bachmeier 1-yd TD run | BYU 14, UCF 10 | $0.751 | 74.2 | – |
| Q2 0:04 | Jenkins TD pass to Chambers, 6 yds | BYU 14, UCF 17 | $0.566 | 15.1 | – |
Decision Point: Trade 1 — Long BYU at $0.531
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi BYU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:43 | BYU 7, UCF 7 | $0.531 | 19.2 | -0.67 | – |
Known at the time: BYU vs UCF market analysis Oct 24 shows RSI at 19.2 — the deepest oversold reading since the game's opening drive. The game signal had dropped 29 cents from its Q1 peak. MACD histogram was negative at -0.67, confirming downward momentum, but the RSI extreme flagged a potential bounce.
The decision: Enter Long BYU at $0.531. The oversold RSI and compressed game signal offered a defined entry against a 7.5-point road favorite that had already shown it could move the ball.
Exit at Q2 3:47: Bachmeier's 1-yard touchdown run pushed the game signal to $0.751 and RSI to 74.2 — overbought. Exit Long BYU at $0.751 for +41.5%.
Outlook for Q3: BYU leads 14-10 at half but the Bachmeier interception and the Jenkins touchdown drive showed UCF's offense is live. If UCF takes the lead in the third quarter, another oversold entry may develop.
Third Quarter: Second Bounce Entry
Outlook check: BYU opened the second half with a 75-yard drive capped by Sione Moa's 1-yard touchdown run at Q3 9:45, extending the lead to 21-17. The game signal reached $0.749. Then UCF's offense answered: Justin Kirkland sacked Jenkins at Q3 7:38, but UCF still drove 75 yards in 11 plays, with Jenkins scoring on a 1-yard keeper at Q3 3:06 to put UCF up 24-21. The game signal fell to $0.522 and RSI dropped to 28.7, then continued lower to $0.440 and RSI 24.7 by Q3 1:59.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi BYU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:45 | Moa 1-yd TD run | BYU 21, UCF 17 | $0.749 | 62.9 | – |
| Q3 7:38 | Kirkland sacks Jenkins, -4 yds | BYU 21, UCF 17 | $0.784 | 65.0 | – |
| Q3 3:06 | Jenkins 1-yd TD run | BYU 21, UCF 24 | $0.522 | 28.7 | – |
| Q3 1:59 | Bachmeier pass to Legend Glasker, 5 yds | BYU 21, UCF 24 | $0.440 | 24.7 | – |
Decision Point: Trade 2 — Long BYU at $0.440
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi BYU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 1:59 | BYU 21, UCF 24 | $0.440 | 24.7 | -1.50 | – |
Known at the time: RSI at 24.7 with MACD histogram at -1.50 — the game signal had fallen 34 cents from its Q3 peak. BYU trailed by three with roughly two minutes left in the third quarter.
The decision: Enter Long BYU at $0.440. A 3-point deficit for a 6-0 road favorite with a full quarter remaining represents a significant discount to the opening price.
Outlook for Q4: BYU needs a field goal or touchdown to retake the lead. If the game signal recovers above $0.70, the exit signal will approach.
Fourth Quarter: Third Bounce Entry
Outlook check: Matthias Dunn's 47-yard field goal at Q4 12:09 tied the game at 24-24 and pushed the game signal to $0.558. The game signal oscillated between $0.558 and $0.621 through the first half of the fourth quarter as both teams punted. Then UCF drove 61 yards in 12 plays before turning it over on downs at Q4 1:42. With the score still 24-24 and UCF driving at Q4 4:49, the game signal had fallen to $0.292 with RSI at 22.2 — the deepest oversold reading of the second half.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi BYU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 12:09 | Dunn 47-yd FG | BYU 24, UCF 24 | $0.558 | 51.9 | – |
| Q4 10:31 | BYU punt | BYU 24, UCF 24 | $0.621 | 58.1 | – |
| Q4 4:49 | Jenkins pass to Josh Derry, 11 yds | BYU 24, UCF 24 | $0.292 | 22.2 | – |
| Q4 0:10 | Stone 46-yd FG blocked by Faletau Satuala | BYU 24, UCF 24 | $0.504 | 61.9 | – |
Decision Point: Trade 3 — Long BYU at $0.292
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi BYU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 4:49 | BYU 24, UCF 24 | $0.292 | 22.2 | -1.90 | – |
Known at the time: RSI at 22.2 and MACD histogram at -1.90. The game signal had compressed to $0.292 — less than half the opening price — despite the score being tied. UCF was moving the ball with under five minutes left.
The decision: Enter Long BYU at $0.292. A tied game with a 6-0 road favorite priced at $0.292 is a significant spread deviation. Faletau Satuala's blocked field goal at Q4 0:10 kept the game tied and sent it to overtime.
Overtime: Exit Signal
Both trades 2 and 3 remained open through regulation. In the first overtime, Bear Bachmeier hit Legend Glasker on a 28-yard touchdown pass to give BYU a 31-24 lead. The game signal jumped to $0.755 and RSI reached 69.8 — the exit threshold. Both positions closed at $0.755 for +71.8% (Trade 2) and +159.1% (Trade 3). UCF immediately answered with Josh Derry catching a 25-yard touchdown pass from Jenkins to force a second overtime. In the second overtime, a roughing-the-kicker penalty on Kendal Wall extended UCF's drive, and Jenkins found Grayson Brousseau on a 4-yard touchdown pass. Keyone Jenkins then hit Tyren Hornes on the two-point conversion to seal a 39-31 UCF win.
Final Accounting
The BYU vs UCF market analysis Oct 24 produced three completed trades, all Long BYU, all triggered by RSI oversold readings as the game signal compressed below the opening price.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long BYU | $0.531 (Q2 9:43) | $0.751 (Q2 3:47) | +41.5% |
| 2 | Long BYU | $0.440 (Q3 1:59) | $0.755 (OT 0:00) | +71.8% |
| 3 | Long BYU | $0.292 (Q4 4:49) | $0.755 (OT 0:00) | +159.1% |
| Average | +90.8% |
Dead Cat Bounce in This Game
The BYU vs UCF market analysis Oct 24 is a clear example of the dead cat bounce pattern. The favorite — BYU, a 7.5-point road favorite — built an early lead, then watched UCF score repeatedly to compress the game signal on three separate occasions. Each compression generated an oversold RSI entry that bounced back toward $0.75, producing a tradeable return before the signal fell again. The final collapse came in double overtime when UCF scored with a two-point conversion to win 39-31, confirming that each bounce was a temporary recovery, not a reversal. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#dead-cat-bounce).
This BYU vs UCF market analysis Oct 24 shows how a favored team can generate multiple dead cat bounce entries across a single game, each one profitable on the bounce even as the underlying trend moved against the favorite.
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