2026-10-24
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Colorado vs Oklahoma State market analysis Oct 24: The Setup
Asset: Oklahoma State Cowboys (home favorite) | Opening: $0.793 | Spread: OKST -13.5 | Kalshi: –
This Colorado vs Oklahoma State market analysis Oct 24 opens with Oklahoma State installed as a 13.5-point home favorite at Boone Pickens Stadium, carrying a 4-2 record into the contest. Colorado arrived at 2-4, and the $0.793 opening game signal reflected the Cowboys' structural edge — but the first quarter would test that assumption hard before the V-bottom formed.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — Colorado's Isaac Wilson drove two late first-quarter touchdown drives that pushed the game signal to $0.597, creating a sharp V on the chart before Oklahoma State's second-half dominance resolved the position.
Going in: The opening price at $0.793 said the market expected a comfortable Cowboys win; a buy signal would require the game signal to drop meaningfully below that level on a temporary Colorado surge.
Who Decided It
- Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-2): Drew Mestemaker completed 21 of 36 passes for 386 yards and four touchdowns, with Caleb Hawkins adding 120 rushing yards on 19 carries. Sam Keltner went 5-for-5 on field goals.
- Colorado Buffaloes (2-5): Isaac Wilson threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns but also threw two interceptions — both to LaDainian Fields — and fumbled once. Colorado scored 24 first-half points and nothing after.
First Quarter: The Oversold Setup
Outlook check: The pre-game outlook called for a Cowboys-favored market; that held for exactly one drive before Colorado's offense erased it.
Drew Mestemaker opened the game with a 47-yard touchdown strike to Miles Coleman on the first possession, pushing the game signal from $0.793 to $0.870 and RSI into overbought territory above 76. Colorado answered with a 12-play, 75-yard drive capped by Isaac Wilson's 4-yard touchdown pass to JaQuail Smith at Q1 7:23, pulling the signal back to $0.778. Oklahoma State punted on the next series, and Colorado's offense went to work again — an 11-play, 71-yard march that consumed most of the remaining clock. As Wilson's no-huddle attack chewed yards, RSI fell steadily: 23.8 at Q1 6:20, 19.9 at Q1 5:08, 17.0 at Q1 4:31, bottoming at 10.8 by Q1 3:23 with the game signal at $0.686.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi OKST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | COLO 0, OKST 0 | $0.793 | – | – |
| Q1 14:01 | Coleman 47-yd TD pass from Mestemaker | COLO 0, OKST 7 | $0.870 | – | – |
| Q1 10:42 | RSI exits overbought | COLO 0, OKST 7 | $0.830 | 57.0 | – |
| Q1 7:23 | Smith 4-yd TD pass from Wilson | COLO 7, OKST 7 | $0.778 | 33.5 | – |
| Q1 3:23 | ENTRY Trade 1: Long OKST | COLO 7, OKST 7 | $0.686 | 10.8 | – |
| Q1 0:03 | Moore Jr. 15-yd TD pass from Wilson | COLO 14, OKST 7 | $0.597 | 23.1 | – |
| Q1 0:03 | ENTRY Trade 2: Long OKST | COLO 14, OKST 7 | $0.597 | 23.1 | – |
Decision Point 1: Long OKST at Q1 3:23
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi OKST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:23 | COLO 7, OKST 7 | $0.686 | 10.8 | -0.39 | – |
Known at the time: Wilson had just completed a short pass to Joseph Williams for 23 yards to the OSU 25, keeping Colorado's drive alive. The game signal had fallen from $0.870 to $0.686 — a 18.4-point drop — while RSI reached 10.8, deeply oversold. MACD histogram sat at -0.39 with the line at -3.80. The score was tied 7-7 with 3:23 remaining in Q1. This Colorado vs Oklahoma State market analysis Oct 24 shows the first entry signal firing here: RSI at extreme oversold levels against a 13.5-point home favorite.
The decision: Enter Long OKST at $0.686. The game signal had compressed well below the opening price on a tied score, with RSI at its lowest reading of the game. The spread implied Oklahoma State should be trading significantly higher; the deviation created the entry.
Outlook for Q2: Confirmation would come from RSI recovering above 30 and the game signal stabilizing above $0.65; a Colorado score extending the lead would test the position.
Decision Point 2: Long OKST at Q1 0:03
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi OKST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:03 | COLO 14, OKST 7 | $0.597 | 23.1 | -0.47 | – |
Known at the time: Wilson found DeAndre Moore Jr. on a 15-yard touchdown pass with three seconds left, putting Colorado up 14-7. The game signal dropped to $0.597 — the lowest reading of the game — and RSI sat at 23.1, still oversold. MACD histogram was -0.47. Oklahoma State, a 13.5-point favorite, now trailed by seven.
The decision: Add Long OKST at $0.597. The game signal had extended the V-bottom lower, and RSI remained in oversold territory against a team expected to win by two touchdowns. The position averaged down from the first entry.
Outlook for Q2: Oklahoma State needed to score first in the second quarter to begin the recovery; continued Colorado scoring would pressure both positions.
Second Quarter: The Divergence Builds
Outlook check: The Q1 outlook called for RSI recovery above 30 — that materialized at Q1 2:48 when RSI crossed back to 32.7, though Colorado's final score had already pushed the game signal lower first.
Oklahoma State opened Q2 with a 10-play drive ending in Sam Keltner's 47-yard field goal at Q2 11:48, trimming the deficit to 14-10. A bullish divergence signal appeared at Q2 11:53: the game signal made a lower low at $0.584 while RSI printed a higher low of 32.6 versus the prior 23.1 — sellers weakening. Mestemaker then hit Justin Bowick on a 14-yard touchdown pass at Q2 8:48, flipping the lead to 17-14 and pushing the game signal to $0.786. Colorado answered with Isaac Wilson's 1-yard touchdown run at Q2 6:19 to retake the lead at 21-17. The second half of Q2 became a field-goal exchange: Keltner hit from 30 yards at Q2 4:14 (21-20), Elliott Arnold responded from 45 yards at Q2 2:30 (24-20), and a second bullish divergence fired at Q2 1:56 with RSI at 34.3 versus the prior 29.1. Keltner's third field goal of the quarter, from 41 yards at Q2 0:14, closed the half at 24-23.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi OKST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:53 | Bullish divergence signal | COLO 14, OKST 7 | $0.584 | 32.6 | – |
| Q2 11:48 | Keltner 47-yd FG | COLO 14, OKST 10 | $0.623 | 44.4 | – |
| Q2 8:48 | Bowick 14-yd TD pass from Mestemaker | COLO 14, OKST 17 | $0.786 | 72.3 | – |
| Q2 6:19 | Wilson 1-yd TD run | COLO 21, OKST 17 | $0.644 | 38.2 | – |
| Q2 2:30 | Arnold 45-yd FG | COLO 24, OKST 20 | $0.614 | 40.7 | – |
| Q2 1:56 | Bullish divergence signal | COLO 24, OKST 20 | $0.581 | 34.3 | – |
| Q2 0:14 | Keltner 41-yd FG | COLO 24, OKST 23 | $0.673 | 53.6 | – |
Decision Point: Hold Long OKST
Known at the time: Two bullish divergences had fired in Q2, RSI had recovered from extreme oversold, and Oklahoma State trailed by just one at halftime. Both long positions remained open.
The decision: Hold both Long OKST positions. The game signal had recovered from $0.597 to $0.695 at half, and the divergence signals confirmed momentum was shifting toward the Cowboys despite the scoreboard deficit.
Outlook for Q3: A Colorado turnover or quick Oklahoma State score to open the second half would accelerate the V-bottom recovery; another Colorado touchdown would extend the hold period.
Third Quarter: The V Completes
Outlook check: The Q2 outlook called for a quick Oklahoma State score — it arrived in the first minute of Q3.
Isaac Wilson fumbled on Colorado's opening play of the second half; Quinton Hammonds recovered at the Colorado 22. Two plays later, Mestemaker hit Morgan McPhaul on a 3-yard touchdown pass at Q3 14:11, putting Oklahoma State ahead 30-24. The game signal surged to $0.833 with RSI at 77.2 — overbought. Ethan Wesloski sacked Wilson twice (Q3 13:21 and Q3 7:31), and the Colorado offense went three-and-out twice. William Mason's 3-yard touchdown run at Q3 8:48 extended the lead to 37-24, pushing the game signal to $0.942. RSI exited overbought at Q3 11:21 (65.3) and again at Q3 8:08 (66.9) — momentum readings consistent with a sustained rally rather than exhaustion. LaDainian Fields intercepted Wilson at Q3 3:54, and Oklahoma State ran out the third quarter at $0.987 with RSI at 70.8.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi OKST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 14:11 | McPhaul 3-yd TD pass from Mestemaker | COLO 24, OKST 30 | $0.833 | 77.2 | – |
| Q3 11:21 | RSI exits overbought | COLO 24, OKST 30 | $0.845 | 65.3 | – |
| Q3 8:48 | Mason 3-yd TD run | COLO 24, OKST 37 | $0.942 | 78.4 | – |
| Q3 8:08 | RSI exits overbought | COLO 24, OKST 37 | $0.930 | 66.9 | – |
| Q3 0:00 | End of Q3 | COLO 24, OKST 37 | $0.987 | 70.8 | – |
Decision Point: Hold Long OKST
Known at the time: Both positions were deep in profit. The game signal had risen from $0.686 and $0.597 to $0.987. Colorado had scored nothing in the second half.
The decision: Hold both Long OKST positions into Q4. The game signal was approaching its ceiling but the exit signal had not yet fired; the system targets RSI extreme overbought at game end.
Outlook for Q4: Oklahoma State needed to maintain the lead; the exit would trigger at game end on RSI extreme overbought.
Fourth Quarter: The Exit
Outlook check: The Q3 outlook called for Oklahoma State to hold the lead — they extended it to 33 points.
Sam Keltner opened Q4 with his fourth field goal from 21 yards at Q4 14:17 (40-24). Mestemaker found Wyatt Young on a 28-yard touchdown pass at Q4 9:29 (47-24). LaDainian Fields intercepted Wilson a second time at Q4 7:48, and Keltner added his fifth field goal from 30 yards at Q4 7:01 (50-24). Tre Page III capped the scoring with an 18-yard touchdown run at Q4 1:18 (57-24). RSI held at 78.1 through most of Q4 before spiking to 93.9 at the final whistle.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi OKST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 14:17 | Keltner 21-yd FG | COLO 24, OKST 40 | $0.983 | 63.9 | – |
| Q4 9:29 | Young 28-yd TD pass from Mestemaker | COLO 24, OKST 47 | $0.999 | 78.1 | – |
| Q4 7:48 | Fields INT #2 on Wilson | COLO 24, OKST 47 | $0.999 | 78.1 | – |
| Q4 1:18 | Page III 18-yd TD run | COLO 24, OKST 57 | $0.999 | 78.1 | – |
| Q4 0:00 | EXIT both trades | COLO 24, OKST 57 | $0.950 | 93.9 | – |
Decision Point: Exit Long OKST at Q4 0:00
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi OKST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | COLO 24, OKST 57 | $0.950 | 93.9 | -0.03 | – |
Known at the time: The game ended with Oklahoma State winning 57-24. RSI reached 93.9 — extreme overbought — at the final whistle. MACD histogram was -0.03 (line +0.10, signal +0.13). Both positions closed at $0.950.
The decision: Exit both Long OKST positions at $0.950. The game signal exit triggered on RSI extreme overbought at game end, closing Trade 1 at +38.5% and Trade 2 at +59.2%.
Final Accounting
This Colorado vs Oklahoma State market analysis Oct 24 produced two completed long positions on Oklahoma State, both entered during the Q1 V-bottom and held through the Cowboys' dominant second half.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long OKST | $0.686 (Q1 3:23) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +38.5% |
| 2 | Long OKST | $0.597 (Q1 0:03) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +59.2% |
| Average | +48.9% |
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
This Colorado vs Oklahoma State market analysis Oct 24 illustrates the V-Bottom Recovery pattern across a full game arc. The V-Bottom Recovery is defined as a game where a team's game signal plunges, turns, and climbs back at least 30 points — a V on the chart, bought near the bottom. Here, Oklahoma State's game signal dropped from $0.870 to $0.597 as Colorado scored 14 unanswered points in Q1, then recovered to $0.950 by game end — a 35.3-point climb from the trough. The two RSI extreme oversold readings at Q1 3:23 (RSI 10.8) and Q1 0:03 (RSI 23.1) marked the entry zone; the second half's scoreless Colorado performance and Mestemaker's four-touchdown performance completed the V. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
The market analysis for this game confirms that the V-Bottom Recovery pattern, when entered at RSI extreme oversold against a double-digit spread favorite, can deliver sustained returns as the game signal mean-reverts to its structural level — this Colorado vs Oklahoma State market analysis Oct 24 being a clear example of that dynamic.
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