2026-10-24
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Indiana vs Michigan market analysis Oct 24: The Setup
Asset: Indiana Hoosiers (road favorite) | Opening: $0.831 | Spread: IU -7.5 | Kalshi: 73/74c
This Indiana vs Michigan market analysis Oct 24 tracks a 7-1 Indiana squad entering Michigan Stadium as a 7.5-point road favorite against a 4-2 Michigan team that had shown defensive resilience at home. The Hoosiers carried momentum from a strong early-season run, but the Big House — with 111,276 fans — presented a hostile environment that would test that confidence. IU opened at $0.831, reflecting clear market expectation of a road win.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — IU's game signal plunged from the mid-$0.80s to $0.433 late in the fourth quarter before reversing sharply to $0.950 as the Hoosiers forced and won overtime.
Going in: The $0.831 opening price confirmed IU as the clear favorite; the buy signal would come only if the game signal dropped far enough to create a meaningful entry discount.
Who Decided It
- Indiana Hoosiers (7-1): Nico Radicic converted both his field goal attempts (22 and 34 yards) to build the early lead, and Josh Hoover punched in the overtime winner on a 4-yard run.
- Michigan Wolverines (4-3): Tommy Carr completed 20 of 32 passes for 167 yards but was sacked four times and threw an interception; Trey Butkowski went 2-for-4 on field goals, including the tying kick at the final buzzer.
First Quarter: Controlled Pressure
Outlook check: The opening price held its range — IU stayed above $0.83 throughout the quarter, consistent with the pre-game setup.
Tommy Carr fumbled on a shotgun rush at Q1 6:32, with Isaiah Jones recovering for Indiana at the Michigan 28. That turnover set up a short IU drive that ended with Nico Radicic's 22-yard field goal at Q1 3:44, putting the Hoosiers up 3-0. The game signal dipped slightly to $0.837 after the score — a mild fade from the $0.843 reading at the Q1 5:47 MACD bullish cross — and closed the quarter at $0.841 with RSI at 52.1. Kalshi held 76/77c.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi IU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | IU 0, MICH 0 | $0.831 | — | 73/74c |
| Q1 6:32 | Carr fumble, Jones recovery | IU 0, MICH 0 | $0.835 | 61.5 | 76/77c |
| Q1 5:47 | MACD bullish cross | IU 0, MICH 0 | $0.843 | 61.6 | 74/75c |
| Q1 3:44 | Radicic 22-yd FG | IU 3, MICH 0 | $0.837 | 50.1 | 75/76c |
| Q1 0:00 | End Q1 | IU 3, MICH 0 | $0.841 | 52.1 | 76/77c |
Decision Point: Hold — No Entry Signal
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi IU bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | IU 3, MICH 0 | $0.841 | 52.1 | — | 76/77c |
Known at the time: IU led 3-0, the game signal was near its opening level, and RSI sat in neutral territory at 52.1. No oversold condition had developed.
The decision: Stay out. The game signal had not moved far enough from the opening price to justify an entry — no discount, no trade.
Outlook for the next quarter: IU needed to extend the lead or hold Michigan scoreless to keep the game signal elevated; a Michigan scoring drive would compress the signal and warrant closer attention.
Second Quarter: Hoosiers Build the Lead
Outlook check: IU extended its advantage, consistent with the Q1 outlook.
Amare Ferrell intercepted Tommy Carr at Q2 11:28, returning 19 yards to the Michigan 21. Four plays later, Radicic converted his second field goal — 34 yards at Q2 9:31 — pushing IU to 6-0. The game signal reached $0.884 around the interception before settling to $0.865 after the score. Michigan drove deep late in the half but Rolijah Hardy sacked Carr for 12 yards at Q2 0:23, and Trey Butkowski's 53-yard attempt was no good at Q2 0:18. Paddy McAteer's 56-yarder for IU also missed at Q2 0:01. The signal closed the half at $0.873, RSI 58.6, Kalshi 80/81c.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi IU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:28 | Ferrell INT, 19-yd return | IU 3, MICH 0 | $0.884 | 71.9 | 82/83c |
| Q2 9:31 | Radicic 34-yd FG | IU 6, MICH 0 | $0.865 | 56.7 | 79/80c |
| Q2 0:23 | Hardy sacks Carr, -12 yds | IU 6, MICH 0 | $0.867 | 57.5 | 78/79c |
| Q2 0:18 | Butkowski 53-yd FG no good | IU 6, MICH 0 | $0.867 | 57.9 | 81/82c |
| Q2 0:01 | McAteer 56-yd FG no good | IU 6, MICH 0 | $0.873 | 58.6 | 80/81c |
Decision Point: Hold — Signal Elevated
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi IU bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:01 | IU 6, MICH 0 | $0.873 | 58.6 | — | 80/81c |
Known at the time: IU led by six, the game signal was near $0.87, and RSI was neutral. No entry discount existed.
The decision: Hold out. The signal was too elevated relative to the opening to offer a meaningful v-bottom entry.
Outlook for the next quarter: Michigan would receive the second-half kickoff; a sustained Michigan drive converting to points would begin compressing the IU signal toward a potential entry zone.
Third Quarter: Michigan Fights Back
Outlook check: Michigan did score, compressing the IU signal as anticipated.
Michigan opened the second half with a 14-play, 61-yard drive that consumed over eight minutes — but Trey Butkowski's 32-yard attempt at Q3 6:58 was no good. Then Zeke Berry intercepted Josh Hoover at Q3 3:48, returning 37 yards to the IU 13. Michigan converted that turnover: Butkowski's 29-yard field goal at Q3 2:22 cut the deficit to 6-3. The game signal dropped to $0.756 around the Berry interception and recovered only to $0.807 after the Michigan score. RSI fell to 31.8 at the interception — approaching oversold — before bouncing to 46.5.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi IU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 7:46 | Osunsanmi sacks Carr, -13 yds | IU 6, MICH 0 | $0.830 | 55.0 | 76/77c |
| Q3 6:58 | Butkowski 32-yd FG no good | IU 6, MICH 0 | $0.869 | 62.6 | 82/83c |
| Q3 3:48 | Berry INT, 37-yd return | IU 6, MICH 0 | $0.756 | 31.8 | 66/67c |
| Q3 2:22 | Butkowski 29-yd FG | IU 6, MICH 3 | $0.807 | 46.5 | 75/76c |
Decision Point: Watch — Signal Compressing
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi IU bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2:22 | IU 6, MICH 3 | $0.807 | 46.5 | — | 75/76c |
Known at the time: Michigan had cut the lead to three, the game signal had dropped from $0.869 to $0.807, and RSI had touched 31.8 before recovering. The signal was compressing but not yet at a tradeable discount.
The decision: Stay out — the signal remained above $0.80 and RSI had already bounced. The setup was developing but not yet actionable.
Outlook for the next quarter: If Michigan continued to pressure and the IU signal dropped below $0.50 with RSI moving into oversold territory, a v-bottom recovery entry would become viable.
Fourth Quarter: The V-Bottom Forms
Outlook check: The compression continued exactly as anticipated — and then accelerated into a deep oversold condition.
Smith Snowden sacked Josh Hoover for 3 yards at Q4 14:52, and the game signal slid to $0.765. Tobi Osunsanmi sacked Tommy Carr for 6 yards at Q4 13:40, briefly lifting IU's signal to $0.829. But Michigan then drove 53 yards on 13 plays over 7:32, and the game signal fell to $0.728 at Q4 7:32 as the drive consumed clock. With two minutes left and Michigan trailing by three, the game signal had collapsed to $0.433 — RSI at 18.7, deep in oversold territory, MACD histogram at -2.68. Kalshi showed 41/42c.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi IU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 14:52 | Snowden sacks Hoover, -3 yds | IU 6, MICH 3 | $0.765 | 33.7 | 72/73c |
| Q4 13:40 | Osunsanmi sacks Carr, -6 yds | IU 6, MICH 3 | $0.829 | 59.1 | 66/67c |
| Q4 7:32 | Gowers punt, Salesi Moa return | IU 6, MICH 3 | $0.728 | 32.7 | 68/69c |
| Q4 2:00 | Michigan timeout | IU 6, MICH 3 | $0.433 | 18.7 | 41/42c |
| Q4 0:25 | Hardy sacks Carr, -5 yds | IU 6, MICH 3 | $0.601 | 50.9 | 57/58c |
| Q4 0:00 | Butkowski 26-yd FG | IU 6, MICH 6 | $0.507 | 42.9 | 56/57c |
Decision Point: ENTRY — Long IU at the V-Bottom
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi IU bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2:00 | IU 6, MICH 3 | $0.433 | 18.7 | -2.68 | 41/42c |
Known at the time: Michigan had called timeout with two minutes left, trailing by three. The game signal had plunged from $0.831 at opening to $0.433 — a 39.8-point drop. RSI sat at 18.7, deeply oversold. MACD histogram was -2.68 (line -6.85, signal -4.17), showing sustained downward momentum. Kalshi was 41/42c. This Indiana vs Michigan market analysis Oct 24 identified this as the entry: a 7.5-point road favorite trading at $0.433 with RSI at 18.7 is the definition of a v-bottom recovery setup.
The decision: Enter long IU at $0.433. The game signal had compressed 39.8 points from the opening, RSI was at an extreme low, and IU still led by three with two minutes remaining.
Outlook for overtime: Butkowski's tying field goal at Q4 0:00 pushed the game to overtime at $0.507. The entry was already recovering. IU needed to score first in OT to close the position.
Overtime: The Exit
IU received the ball in overtime and needed just two plays to cover 25 yards. Josh Hoover's 4-yard run into the end zone at OT 0:00 gave Indiana a 13-6 lead. Michigan's subsequent possession went eight plays for 12 yards before Tommy Carr's incomplete pass on fourth down — thrown toward the IU 1 — ended the game as a turnover on downs. The game signal closed at $0.950, RSI 67.2, Kalshi 98/99c.
Decision Point: EXIT — Long IU at OT 0:00
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi IU bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT 0:00 | IU 13, MICH 6 | $0.950 | 67.2 | +3.40 | 98/99c |
Known at the time: Michigan's final pass fell incomplete, the game was over, and the IU signal reached $0.950. RSI had recovered from 18.7 to 67.2. MACD histogram turned positive at +3.40.
The decision: Exit long IU at $0.950. The v-bottom recovery had completed its full arc from $0.433 to $0.950.
Final Accounting
This Indiana vs Michigan market analysis Oct 24 produced one completed trade with a +119.6% game signal return.
| Trade | Entry | Exit | Game Signal return | Kalshi entry (ask) | Kalshi exit (bid) | Kalshi return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long IU (Q4 2:00) | $0.433 | $0.950 (OT 0:00) | +119.6% | 42c | 98c | +133.3% |
Average: Game Signal +119.6% | Kalshi +133.3%
The Game Signal return is the model's price; the Kalshi return is what the market paid, buying at the ask and selling at the bid. Trade 1 (+133.3% on Kalshi vs +119.6%) bought at 42c against $0.433 and sold at 98c against $0.950, so Kalshi paid more.
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
This Indiana vs Michigan market analysis Oct 24 is a clear illustration of the v-bottom recovery pattern. A V-Bottom Recovery occurs when a team's game signal plunges sharply, finds a floor, and climbs back — forming a V on the chart, with the entry taken near the bottom. Here, IU's signal dropped from $0.831 at opening to $0.433 at Q4 2:00 — a 39.8-point plunge driven by Michigan's sustained fourth-quarter drive and the looming threat of a tying field goal — before reversing to $0.950 when Josh Hoover scored the overtime winner. The RSI reading of 18.7 at the entry confirmed the depth of the oversold condition, and the subsequent recovery to 67.2 at exit traced the right side of the V precisely. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
The complete picture of this Indiana vs Michigan market analysis Oct 24 — a 7-1 road favorite compressing to $0.433 on a late Michigan drive, then recovering to $0.950 in overtime — is the v-bottom recovery pattern working as designed.
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