2026-10-31
Login to see the interactive sport charts →
Kansas vs TCU market analysis Oct 31: The Setup
Asset: TCU Horned Frogs (home favorite) | Opening: $0.672 | Spread: TCU -6 | Kalshi: –
This Kansas vs TCU market analysis Oct 31 opens with TCU installed as a 6-point home favorite at Amon G. Carter Stadium, both teams entering at 3-4 on the season. The Horned Frogs held the structural edge — home field, spread cushion — but the first half would test that edge severely. The game signal opened at $0.672, reflecting the pre-game expectation that TCU would cover.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — TCU's game signal plunged from $0.672 to a low of $0.071 by Q3 9:32, then reversed sharply to close at $1.000, tracing a deep V on the chart.
Going in: The $0.672 opening price said TCU was the clear favorite; a buy signal would emerge only if the game signal dropped far enough below that level to create a mean-reversion opportunity.
Who Decided It
- TCU Horned Frogs (4-4): Max Carroll's 60-yard interception return in Q3 and Ace Theus's 28-yard touchdown run with 26 seconds left in the third swung the game; Jaden Craig added 87 rushing yards and the go-ahead score in Q4.
- Kansas Jayhawks (3-5): Cole Ballard finished 20-of-35 for 285 yards but threw the pick-six that started TCU's comeback; Martin Connington's three field goals kept KU competitive but couldn't offset the second-half collapse.
First Quarter: Pressure Builds Early
Outlook check: The opening $0.672 held as a reference, but TCU's game signal began drifting lower almost immediately — the "Going in" setup was not yet in play.
Ed Small muffed a Matthew Gill punt at the TCU 40 in the opening minutes, gifting Kansas a short field. KU drove to a 26-yard field goal attempt that Martin Connington missed, but the damage to TCU's game signal was already visible: RSI dropped to 17.1 at Q1 10:47 as the Jayhawks threatened. Trey Lathan and Kevin Oatis combined to sack Jaden Craig for -5 yards at Q1 8:04, keeping TCU's offense stalled. Connington converted a 34-yard field goal with 1:32 left in the quarter. TCU's game signal closed Q1 at $0.535, RSI 41.1 — the favorite was slipping but not yet at a tradeable level.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:52 | Kickoff | KU 0, TCU 0 | $0.672 | – | – |
| Q1 10:47 | KU drives into TCU territory | KU 0, TCU 0 | $0.510 | 17.1 | – |
| Q1 8:04 | Craig sacked -5 yds (Lathan/Oatis) | KU 0, TCU 0 | $0.624 | 53.0 | – |
| Q1 1:32 | Connington 34-yd FG good | KU 3, TCU 0 | $0.570 | 46.5 | – |
| Q1 0:00 | End Q1 | KU 3, TCU 0 | $0.535 | 41.1 | – |
Decision Point: Stay Out — Signal Not Yet Oversold
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | KU 3, TCU 0 | $0.535 | 41.1 | – | – |
Known at the time: TCU trailed by 3, game signal at $0.535, RSI 41.1 — neither oversold nor at a level that justified entry. The muffed punt and missed FG created noise but no tradeable signal.
The decision: Stay out. The game signal had not compressed enough relative to the spread expectation to warrant a long entry.
Outlook for Q2: A continued KU scoring run would push TCU's game signal toward oversold territory and potentially create an entry.
Second Quarter: The Oversold Entry
Outlook check: The Q1 outlook proved correct — KU scored twice in Q2, driving TCU's game signal deep into oversold territory and triggering both trade entries.
Connington hit a 42-yard field goal at Q2 6:25 (KU 6, TCU 0), pushing TCU's game signal to $0.455. Then a 73-yard KU drive in just over a minute ended with Cole Ballard finding Cam Pickett on a 29-yard touchdown pass at Q2 4:20 — KU 13, TCU 0. TCU's game signal collapsed to $0.239, RSI 14.9. The Horned Frogs ran a 13-play, 80-yard drive that reached the KU 1 but turned the ball over on downs at Q2 0:03, leaving the half at KU 13, TCU 0, game signal $0.213.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 6:25 | Connington 42-yd FG | KU 6, TCU 0 | $0.455 | 37.5 | – |
| Q2 5:36 | Craig pass incomplete (hurried) | KU 6, TCU 0 | $0.396 | 26.2 | – |
| Q2 4:20 | Pickett 29-yd TD pass from Ballard | KU 13, TCU 0 | $0.239 | 14.9 | – |
| Q2 0:00 | End Q2 | KU 13, TCU 0 | $0.213 | 35.7 | – |
Decision Point 1: Long TCU at Q2 7:32
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 7:32 | KU 3, TCU 0 | $0.431 | 22.8 | -0.75 | – |
Known at the time: Cole Ballard had just completed a 35-yard pass to Nahzae Cox down to the TCU 26, extending a KU drive. TCU's game signal had fallen to $0.431 — well below the $0.672 open — with RSI at 22.8 (deep oversold) and MACD histogram at -0.75. The Kansas vs TCU market analysis Oct 31 shows this as the first point where the game signal's compression against the spread's implied value triggered a long signal.
The decision: Enter Long TCU at $0.431. RSI deep oversold at 22.8, game signal 36 cents below the opening price, with TCU still holding the structural spread advantage.
Outlook for Q3: A TCU score or KU turnover would begin the recovery; continued KU scoring would add to the position.
Decision Point 2: Add Long TCU at Q2 5:36
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 5:36 | KU 6, TCU 0 | $0.396 | 26.2 | -0.57 | – |
Known at the time: Jaden Craig's pass was incomplete under pressure from Leroy Harris III, and TCU's game signal had slipped further to $0.396 with RSI 26.2. The game signal was now 27.6 cents below the opening, with MACD histogram at -0.57.
The decision: Add Long TCU at $0.396. The game signal continued compressing against the spread expectation, deepening the oversold read and justifying a second entry.
Outlook for Q3: TCU needed a defensive stop and an offensive response; the 13-point deficit was large but the spread implied TCU had the talent edge.
Third Quarter: The V-Bottom Forms
Outlook check: TCU's game signal continued falling into Q3, reaching $0.071 at Q3 9:32 — the deepest point of the V — before the recovery began.
KU drove 71 yards in the third quarter but turned the ball over when Koron Hayward pressured Ballard into a throw that Max Carroll intercepted at the TCU 40 and returned 60 yards for a touchdown at Q3 4:38 — KU 13, TCU 7. RSI spiked to 84.7 on the score. TCU then took the lead with 26 seconds left in the quarter: Ace Theus took a handoff and ran 28 yards to the end zone — KU 13, TCU 14. RSI hit 84.5 at the lead change. The game signal closed Q3 at $0.543, RSI 70.4.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:32 | KU drives to TCU 6 | KU 13, TCU 0 | $0.071 | 23.4 | – |
| Q3 4:38 | Carroll 60-yd INT return TD | KU 13, TCU 7 | $0.315 | 84.7 | – |
| Q3 0:26 | Theus 28-yd TD run | KU 13, TCU 14 | $0.604 | 84.5 | – |
| Q3 0:00 | End Q3 | KU 13, TCU 14 | $0.543 | 70.4 | – |
Decision Point: Hold — Recovery Underway
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 0:00 | KU 13, TCU 14 | $0.543 | 70.4 | – | – |
Known at the time: TCU had taken the lead on Theus's run. Both long positions were now profitable — Trade 1 from $0.431 and Trade 2 from $0.396 — with the game signal at $0.543. RSI was overbought at 70.4 but the lead had just changed.
The decision: Hold both long positions. TCU had the lead and the game signal was recovering strongly; the exit signal had not yet fired.
Outlook for Q4: A KU response would test the hold; TCU needed to protect the lead for the positions to reach full value.
Fourth Quarter: The Exit
Outlook check: KU did respond — a Ballard fumble recovered by TCU at Q4 12:06 gave TCU possession, but a MACD bearish cross at Q4 13:31 and a second at Q4 10:25 signaled choppiness. KU's Martin Connington hit a 27-yard field goal at Q4 4:59 to retake the lead 16-14.
The game signal fell to $0.341 at Q4 4:47 as KU led, but a bullish divergence signal fired — RSI 35.2, a higher low than the prior 33.8. A MACD bullish cross at Q4 3:13 confirmed momentum turning back toward TCU. Jaden Craig then capped a 13-play, 84-yard drive with a 17-yard touchdown run at Q4 1:11, and Craig hit Jordan Dwyer on the two-point conversion — TCU 22, KU 16. The game signal surged to $0.945. Both exits triggered at Q4 0:00 as Kansas's final drive fell short.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 13:31 | MACD bearish cross | KU 13, TCU 14 | $0.501 | 59.7 | – |
| Q4 12:00 | MACD bullish cross | KU 13, TCU 14 | $0.676 | 75.2 | – |
| Q4 4:59 | Connington 27-yd FG | KU 16, TCU 14 | $0.442 | 45.9 | – |
| Q4 3:13 | MACD bullish cross | KU 16, TCU 14 | $0.537 | 59.8 | – |
| Q4 1:11 | Craig 17-yd TD run + 2-pt conv | KU 16, TCU 22 | $0.945 | 81.8 | – |
| Q4 0:00 | End of game | KU 16, TCU 22 | $0.950 | 81.8 | – |
Decision Point: Exit Both Long TCU Positions at Q4 0:00
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | KU 16, TCU 22 | $0.950 | 81.8 | -0.41 | – |
Known at the time: The game had ended. TCU won 22-16. Both positions exited at $0.950 — Trade 1 from $0.431 (+120.3%) and Trade 2 from $0.396 (+139.8%).
The decision: Exit both Long TCU positions at game end. The V-bottom recovery was complete, with the game signal moving from deep oversold to near-maximum value.
Final Accounting
This Kansas vs TCU market analysis Oct 31 produced two completed long trades, both entered during the deep second-quarter oversold phase and exited at game end.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long TCU | $0.431 (Q2 7:32) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +120.3% |
| 2 | Long TCU | $0.396 (Q2 5:36) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +139.8% |
| Average | +130.1% |
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
This Kansas vs TCU market analysis Oct 31 is a clear example of the V-Bottom Recovery pattern in college football. The V-Bottom Recovery describes a game where a team's game signal plunges sharply, finds a floor, and climbs back — forming a V on the chart — with the trade entered near the bottom of that V. Here, TCU's game signal fell from $0.672 at kickoff to $0.071 at Q3 9:32 (RSI 23.4) as Kansas built a 13-0 lead, then reversed entirely as Max Carroll's pick-six and Ace Theus's late third-quarter touchdown run swung the momentum, and Jaden Craig's go-ahead score in Q4 sealed the 22-16 win. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
The depth of the V — a 60-point drop in game signal from open to trough — and the clean two-score recovery in the second half made this a well-defined instance of the pattern. The Kansas vs TCU market analysis Oct 31 confirms that the two oversold entries in Q2, both below $0.432, captured the full return of TCU's comeback.
Explore more NCAAF market analysis on SportChartz.