2026-10-31
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Michigan vs Rutgers market analysis Oct 31: The Setup
Asset: Michigan Wolverines (road favorite) | Opening: $0.828 | Spread: MICH -16.5 | Kalshi: –
This Michigan vs Rutgers market analysis Oct 31 opens with Michigan installed as a 16.5-point road favorite at SHI Stadium, carrying a 4-3 record into a Rutgers squad sitting at 2-5. The gap in talent suggested a comfortable Wolverines win, but the chart told a more volatile story — particularly in the fourth quarter.
The Pattern: Double Bottom — Michigan's game signal dipped twice in the fourth quarter, with RSI reaching extreme oversold territory at each trough before the Wolverines recovered to win 28-21.
Going in: Opening at $0.828, Michigan was a strong pre-game favorite; the buy case rested on the Wolverines holding their lead and converting late-game pressure into a cover.
Who Decided It
- Michigan Wolverines (5-3): Tommy Carr was efficient throughout, finishing 22-of-27 for 266 yards with one touchdown pass and two rushing touchdowns, including the go-ahead score with 4:24 left.
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-6): AJ Surace completed just 3-of-12 passes for 123 yards, but Jourdin Houston's 80-yard touchdown reception kept Rutgers alive; the Scarlet Knights ultimately couldn't overcome Michigan's fourth-quarter answer.
First Quarter: Favorite Establishes Control
Outlook check: The opening price of $0.828 reflected Michigan's heavy favoritism — the early action confirmed it.
Michigan's opening drive covered 92 yards in 10 plays, capped by Tommy Carr's six-yard touchdown pass to JJ Buchanan at Q1 7:23, pushing the game signal to $0.902 with RSI at 66.5. Rutgers responded with a 10-play, 47-yard drive that ended in Dane Pizzaro's 46-yard field goal at Q1 1:46, trimming the deficit to 7-3 and nudging the signal back to $0.875. Michigan entered the second quarter with RSI at 50.8 — neutral, balanced, no extremes.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi MICH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff – opening price | MICH 0, RUTG 0 | $0.828 | – | – |
| Q1 7:23 | Carr TD pass to Buchanan | MICH 7, RUTG 0 | $0.902 | 66.5 | – |
| Q1 1:46 | Pizzaro 46-yd FG | MICH 7, RUTG 3 | $0.875 | 48.2 | – |
| Q1 0:00 | End of Q1 | MICH 7, RUTG 3 | $0.881 | 50.8 | – |
Decision Point: Hold Michigan — No Entry Yet
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi MICH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | MICH 7, RUTG 3 | $0.881 | 50.8 | – | – |
Known at the time: Michigan led by four, RSI was neutral at 50.8, and no oversold or overbought extremes had formed. The game signal had not developed a tradeable pattern.
The decision: Stay out. No technical setup had emerged — the signal was trending near its opening level with no meaningful deviation to trade against.
Outlook for the next quarter: Watch for RSI to push toward overbought if Michigan extends the lead, or for a pullback if Rutgers scores early in Q2.
Second Quarter: Overbought Peak and Oversold Compression
Outlook check: The overbought signal materialized quickly — Michigan scored again and RSI climbed above 70.
Jordan Marshall's two-yard rushing touchdown at Q2 13:16 pushed the game signal to $0.930 and RSI to 71.6 — the first overbought reading of the game. Then Rutgers struck back immediately: AJ Surace found Jourdin Houston on an 80-yard strike at Q2 11:31, cutting the deficit to 14-10 and triggering a MACD bearish cross as RSI collapsed from 76.2 to 35.7. Michigan's subsequent drive stalled on a missed 48-yard Trey Butkowski field goal at Q2 7:50, and Rutgers converted a 32-yard Pizzaro field goal at Q2 3:21 to make it 14-13. A bullish divergence signal fired at Q2 1:48 — RSI posted a higher low of 24.6 against a prior low of 20.1 — but the game signal sat at $0.767 with Sekou Kromah sacking Tommy Carr for nine yards at Q2 0:52.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi MICH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:16 | Marshall 2-yd TD run | MICH 14, RUTG 3 | $0.930 | 71.6 | – |
| Q2 11:31 | Houston 80-yd TD catch | MICH 14, RUTG 10 | $0.874 | 35.7 | – |
| Q2 7:50 | Butkowski 48-yd FG no good | MICH 14, RUTG 10 | $0.845 | 31.6 | – |
| Q2 3:21 | Pizzaro 32-yd FG | MICH 14, RUTG 13 | $0.811 | 38.5 | – |
| Q2 1:48 | Bullish divergence signal | MICH 14, RUTG 13 | $0.767 | 24.6 | – |
| Q2 0:00 | End of Q2 | MICH 14, RUTG 13 | $0.821 | 62.4 | – |
Decision Point: Hold — Signal Recovering but No Entry Trigger
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi MICH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 1:48 | MICH 14, RUTG 13 | $0.767 | 24.6 | – | – |
Known at the time: The bullish divergence at Q2 1:48 was a Phase 1 signal, but the game signal had not yet reached a tradeable oversold extreme relative to the spread. Michigan led by one point with under two minutes left in the half.
The decision: Hold — the divergence was noted, but the minimum trade window criteria had not been met. The half ended with the signal recovering to $0.821.
Outlook for the next quarter: If Michigan extends the lead in Q3, RSI overbought readings will return; watch for a double-top or exhaustion signal near the $0.93 level.
Third Quarter: Overbought Extension and Double-Top Warning
Outlook check: Michigan scored early in Q3 and RSI pushed deep into overbought territory — the double-top signal at Q3 1:06 was the warning.
Tommy Carr's 15-yard rushing touchdown at Q3 8:56 extended the lead to 21-13 and sent RSI surging above 77. The signal climbed steadily through the quarter, reaching $0.935 at Q3 3:15 when RSI exited overbought at 61.0. Trey Butkowski missed a 35-yard field goal at Q3 3:11, and Enow Etta sacked AJ Surace for a one-yard loss at Q3 2:41. A double-top signal fired at Q3 1:06 with the game signal at $0.933 and RSI at 56.0 — momentum was fading even as the price held near its high. Michigan entered Q4 at $0.929 with RSI at 53.7.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi MICH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:39 | RSI exits overbought | MICH 14, RUTG 13 | $0.845 | 62.8 | – |
| Q3 8:56 | Carr 15-yd TD run | MICH 21, RUTG 13 | $0.899 | 77.7 | – |
| Q3 3:15 | RSI exits overbought | MICH 21, RUTG 13 | $0.935 | 61.0 | – |
| Q3 1:06 | Double-top signal | MICH 21, RUTG 13 | $0.933 | 56.0 | – |
| Q3 0:00 | End of Q3 | MICH 21, RUTG 13 | $0.929 | 53.7 | – |
Decision Point: Stay Out — Double-Top Signals Caution
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi MICH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 1:06 | MICH 21, RUTG 13 | $0.933 | 56.0 | – | – |
Known at the time: The double-top at Q3 1:06 indicated buyers were losing momentum near the $0.93 level. RSI had already exited overbought twice. No entry signal had fired.
The decision: Stay out. The double-top warned of a potential pullback entering Q4, and the game signal was near its high with no oversold setup to buy.
Outlook for the next quarter: The double-top and fading RSI set up a potential Q4 dip — watch for an oversold entry if Rutgers scores and the game signal drops sharply.
Fourth Quarter: Double Bottom Entry and Resolution
Outlook check: The double-top warning proved accurate — Rutgers scored immediately in Q4 and the game signal collapsed to extreme oversold levels, creating the double bottom setup.
Cam Brown's punt at Q4 14:04 was fumbled by Rutgers' returner, but a kick-catch interference penalty on Zeke Berry gave Rutgers the ball at their own 37. Five plays later, Clay Thevenin scored on a one-yard run at Q4 11:43, and AJ Surace converted a two-point pass to tie the game 21-21. The game signal plunged from $0.929 to $0.710, with RSI hitting 12.0 — extreme oversold.
Trade 1 entry came at Q4 12:54, on Antwan Raymond's 54-yard rush to the Michigan three-yard line. The game signal read $0.783 with RSI at 14.1 and MACD histogram at -1.30. The signal was deeply oversold relative to Michigan's spread-implied price, and the entry was triggered before the Thevenin touchdown that followed.
Trade 2 entry came at Q4 10:58, after the Thevenin score and two-point conversion had tied the game. Savion Hiter's three-yard rush to the Michigan 32 came with the game signal at $0.694, RSI at 11.0 — the lowest reading of the game — and MACD histogram at -2.08. This was the second trough of the double bottom, deeper than the first.
RSI exited oversold at Q4 10:13 ($0.755, RSI 36.7), and a MACD bullish cross confirmed at Q4 7:32 ($0.822, RSI 56.6) — both signals came after the entries were made. Michigan then drove 75 yards in 11 plays, with Tommy Carr punching in a nine-yard rushing touchdown at Q4 4:24 to retake the lead 28-21. Both trades exited at Q4 0:00 with the game signal at $0.950 and RSI at 76.0.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi MICH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 12:54 | ENTRY Trade 1 – Raymond 54-yd rush | MICH 21, RUTG 13 | $0.783 | 14.1 | – |
| Q4 11:43 | Thevenin 1-yd TD + 2-pt conversion | MICH 21, RUTG 21 | $0.710 | 12.0 | – |
| Q4 10:58 | ENTRY Trade 2 – Hiter 3-yd rush | MICH 21, RUTG 21 | $0.694 | 11.0 | – |
| Q4 10:13 | RSI exits oversold | MICH 21, RUTG 21 | $0.755 | 36.7 | – |
| Q4 7:32 | MACD bullish cross | MICH 21, RUTG 21 | $0.822 | 56.6 | – |
| Q4 4:24 | Carr 9-yd TD run | MICH 28, RUTG 21 | $0.925 | 69.7 | – |
| Q4 0:00 | EXIT both trades | MICH 28, RUTG 21 | $0.950 | 76.0 | – |
Decision Point 1: Buy Michigan — First Trough (Q4 12:54)
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi MICH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 12:54 | MICH 21, RUTG 13 | $0.783 | 14.1 | -1.30 | – |
Known at the time: Antwan Raymond's 54-yard rush had put Rutgers at the Michigan three-yard line. The game signal had dropped sharply from $0.929, RSI was at 14.1 — extreme oversold — and MACD was deeply negative. Michigan still led 21-13 with nearly 13 minutes remaining.
The decision: Long MICH at $0.783. The extreme oversold RSI reading against a team that still held an eight-point lead with time remaining was the trigger.
Decision Point 2: Add to Michigan — Second Trough (Q4 10:58)
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi MICH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 10:58 | MICH 21, RUTG 21 | $0.694 | 11.0 | -2.08 | – |
Known at the time: Rutgers had just tied the game on Thevenin's touchdown and the two-point conversion. The game signal had fallen further to $0.694, RSI hit 11.0 — the game's lowest reading — and MACD histogram was at -2.08. Michigan had the ball at their own 25 with 10:58 remaining.
The decision: Long MICH at $0.694. The second trough was deeper than the first, completing the double bottom structure. Michigan's possession and time remaining supported adding to the position.
Final Accounting
This Michigan vs Rutgers market analysis Oct 31 produced two completed trades, both long Michigan, both entered in the fourth quarter at extreme oversold readings.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long MICH | $0.783 (Q4 12:54) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +21.3% |
| 2 | Long MICH | $0.694 (Q4 10:58) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +36.9% |
| Average | +29.1% |
Double Bottom in This Game
This Michigan vs Rutgers market analysis Oct 31 shows a Double Bottom: two separate oversold entries on Michigan in the fourth quarter, each bought at a lower trough than the last, before the Wolverines won 28-21. The pattern formed when Rutgers' scoring drive compressed the game signal twice — first to $0.783 at RSI 14.1, then to $0.694 at RSI 11.0 after the tying score — with Michigan recovering to $0.950 at the final whistle. The double bottom structure gave a second, lower-risk entry point that the first trough alone did not provide. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#double-bottom).
The Michigan vs Rutgers market analysis Oct 31 confirms that Tommy Carr's two rushing touchdowns and Michigan's 11-play, 75-yard fourth-quarter drive were the fundamental catalyst that resolved both oversold entries in the traded team's favor.
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