2026-10-31
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Northwestern vs Oregon market analysis Oct 31: The Setup
Asset: Oregon Ducks (home favorite) | Opening: $0.695 | Spread: ORE -3.5 | Kalshi: –
This Northwestern vs Oregon market analysis Oct 31 features a 6-1 Northwestern squad visiting 4-3 Oregon at Autzen Stadium, where the Ducks opened as 3.5-point home favorites despite their losing record. The Wildcats entered on a roll; Oregon needed a home win to stay relevant. Dylan Raiola against Aidan Chiles was the quarterback matchup that would define the price action.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — Oregon's game signal plunged from $0.695 to a low of $0.209 in the second quarter, then reversed and climbed all the way to $1.000 by the final whistle, tracing a clean V on the chart.
Going in: Oregon opened at $0.695, reflecting modest home-favorite confidence; a sustained rally above $0.500 would confirm the Ducks as the stronger side, while continued scoring by Northwestern would push the signal toward distressed territory.
Who Decided It
- Oregon Ducks (5-3): Dylan Raiola completed 22 of 31 passes for 336 yards and three touchdowns, with Dakorien Moore catching seven balls for 128 yards and two scores including a 75-yard strike.
- Northwestern Wildcats (6-2): Aidan Chiles threw for 281 yards and rushed for 93 more, but Jackson Kleather's four field goals (4-of-5) couldn't compensate for three fourth-quarter sacks that ended Northwestern's final drives.
First Quarter: Early Pressure
Outlook check: The pre-game outlook called for Oregon to hold above $0.500; that did not hold — the Ducks were driven below $0.500 within the first five minutes.
Northwestern's opening drive covered 63 yards in 11 plays, ending with Jackson Kleather's 37-yard field goal at Q1 9:35 to put NU up 3-0 ($0.642, RSI 40.6). Oregon's next possession went three-and-out. Then Aidan Chiles found Griffin Wilde on a 64-yard touchdown strike at Q1 5:57 — the game signal collapsed to $0.450 and RSI hit 14.4, its deepest oversold reading of the game. Oregon answered with an eight-play drive capped by Gage Hurych's 27-yard field goal at Q1 2:01, trimming the deficit to 10-3 and nudging the signal back to $0.473.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi ORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:35 | Kleather 37-yd FG | NU 3, ORE 0 | $0.642 | 40.6 | – |
| Q1 5:57 | Wilde 64-yd TD pass from Chiles | NU 10, ORE 0 | $0.450 | 14.4 | – |
| Q1 2:01 | Hurych 27-yd FG | NU 10, ORE 3 | $0.473 | 33.1 | – |
| Q1 0:00 | End of quarter | NU 10, ORE 3 | $0.439 | 29.9 | – |
Decision Point: Long Oregon at the Quarter Break
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | NU 10, ORE 3 | $0.439 | 29.9 | -0.08 | – |
Known at the time: The quarter ended with Northwestern leading 10-3. Oregon's game signal had dropped from $0.695 to $0.439 — a 25-cent decline — while RSI sat at 29.9, right at the oversold threshold. The MACD histogram was negative at -0.08. The Ducks were trailing but had just scored, and the signal was deeply discounted relative to the opening price. This Northwestern vs Oregon market analysis Oct 31 identified the entry here: the game signal had fallen far enough below the spread-implied price to warrant a long position.
The decision: Enter Long ORE at $0.439. RSI at 29.9 signaled oversold conditions, and the Ducks had just demonstrated they could move the ball, cutting the deficit to seven with a late field goal.
Outlook for the next quarter: Oregon needed to close the gap to a single score; a Northwestern touchdown would push the signal below $0.300 and threaten the position.
Second Quarter: The Deepest Low
Outlook check: The outlook for a tighter game did not hold early — Northwestern extended the lead before Oregon responded.
Kleather added his second field goal at Q2 10:50 (NU 13, ORE 3, $0.378, RSI 25.2), and a bullish divergence signal fired: the game signal made a lower low versus Q1, but RSI printed a higher low (25.2 vs. 14.4), suggesting selling momentum was weakening. Oregon answered with Hurych's 44-yard field goal at Q2 7:15 (NU 13, ORE 6, $0.431). Then Chiles scored on a 5-yard keeper at Q2 1:53, pushing the lead to 14 and driving the signal to its game low of $0.209 with RSI at 17.4 — extreme oversold. Oregon's two-minute offense responded immediately: Raiola hit Dakorien Moore on a 10-yard touchdown pass at Q2 0:49, pulling within 20-13 ($0.399, RSI 71.3). A MACD bullish cross and RSI exit from oversold territory both fired at Q2 1:03, confirming the momentum shift that was already underway.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi ORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:50 | Kleather 37-yd FG | NU 13, ORE 3 | $0.378 | 25.2 | – |
| Q2 7:15 | Hurych 44-yd FG | NU 13, ORE 6 | $0.431 | 48.7 | – |
| Q2 1:53 | Chiles 5-yd TD run | NU 20, ORE 6 | $0.215 | 17.4 | – |
| Q2 0:49 | Moore 10-yd TD from Raiola | NU 20, ORE 13 | $0.399 | 71.3 | – |
Decision Point: Hold Through the Halftime Deficit
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:00 | NU 20, ORE 13 | $0.403 | 68.8 | – | – |
Known at the time: Oregon trailed by seven at halftime. The game signal had recovered from $0.209 to $0.403 — nearly doubling off the low — and RSI had climbed from 17.4 to 68.8. The late touchdown showed Raiola could operate under pressure.
The decision: Hold Long ORE. The signal had bounced sharply off the extreme low, and the halftime deficit was manageable. No exit signal had fired.
Outlook for the next quarter: Oregon needed to score first in the third to maintain momentum; another Northwestern score would reset the signal toward $0.300.
Third Quarter: Contested Ground
Outlook check: Oregon did not score first — a Dakorien Moore fumble on the opening drive gave Northwestern the ball at the ORE 49, and Kleather converted a 49-yard field goal at Q3 12:22 to push the lead to 23-13.
A MACD bearish cross fired at Q3 14:10 as Northwestern capitalized on the turnover. Oregon responded with a seven-play, 80-yard drive capped by Raiola's 17-yard touchdown pass to Jamari Johnson at Q3 8:46 (NU 23, ORE 20, $0.490, RSI 74.0). A double-bottom signal appeared at Q3 3:35 ($0.437, RSI 38.6) — the game signal had returned within range of its prior low while RSI held higher, confirming support. A MACD bullish cross followed at Q3 2:25 as Brandon Smith's 31-yard run ignited a 10-play, 76-yard drive. The quarter ended with Oregon's signal at $0.713 and RSI at 76.6 — the Ducks had flipped the momentum.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi ORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 12:22 | Kleather 49-yd FG | NU 23, ORE 13 | $0.307 | 39.2 | – |
| Q3 8:46 | Johnson 17-yd TD from Raiola | NU 23, ORE 20 | $0.490 | 74.0 | – |
| Q3 0:00 | End of quarter | NU 23, ORE 20 | $0.713 | 76.6 | – |
Decision Point: Hold Into the Fourth
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 0:00 | NU 23, ORE 20 | $0.713 | 76.6 | – | – |
Known at the time: Oregon had erased a 10-point deficit and now trailed by just three. The game signal had risen from $0.439 at entry to $0.713 — a 27-cent gain — and RSI was overbought at 76.6. No exit signal had fired.
The decision: Hold Long ORE. The position was profitable and Oregon had momentum entering the fourth quarter.
Outlook for the next quarter: A lead change to Oregon would push the signal above $0.750; a Northwestern score could compress it back toward $0.500.
Fourth Quarter: Resolution
Outlook check: The outlook for a lead change held — Oregon took its first lead of the game on the opening drive of the fourth quarter.
Brandon Smith's 2-yard touchdown run at Q4 14:19 gave Oregon its first lead, 27-23 ($0.753, RSI 66.4). A bearish divergence signal fired here: the game signal made a higher high versus Q3, but RSI printed a lower high (66.4 vs. 77.7), and a MACD bearish cross followed at Q4 12:07. Northwestern answered with Kleather's fourth field goal at Q4 10:31 to cut it to 26-27. Then Raiola hit Dakorien Moore on a 75-yard touchdown pass at Q4 10:20 — the game signal surged to $0.894 and a MACD bullish cross confirmed the move. Oregon's defense then sacked Aidan Chiles three times in the final ten minutes — Nasir Wyatt at Q4 11:11, Matayo Uiagalelei and Bear Alexander splitting a sack at Q4 9:33, and D'Antre Robinson at Q4 2:25 — ending any Northwestern comeback threat. Kleather's 42-yard field goal attempt at Q4 5:14 was no good, and the signal climbed above $0.963.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi ORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 14:19 | Smith 2-yd TD run | NU 23, ORE 27 | $0.753 | 66.4 | – |
| Q4 10:31 | Kleather 49-yd FG | NU 26, ORE 27 | $0.699 | 52.9 | – |
| Q4 10:20 | Moore 75-yd TD from Raiola | NU 26, ORE 34 | $0.894 | 71.3 | – |
| Q4 0:00 | End of game | NU 26, ORE 34 | $0.950 | 70.7 | – |
Decision Point: Exit Long ORE at Game End
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi ORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | NU 26, ORE 34 | $0.950 | 70.7 | -0.57 | – |
Known at the time: Oregon led 34-26 with the clock at zero. The game signal stood at $0.950 and RSI remained in overbought territory at 70.7. The exit signal was the RSI overbought condition combined with game end.
The decision: Exit Long ORE at $0.950. The position had run from $0.439 to $0.950, a gain of +116.5%, and the game was over.
Final Accounting
This Northwestern vs Oregon market analysis Oct 31 produced one completed trade with a return of +116.5%.
| Trade | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long ORE (Q1 0:00) | $0.439 | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +116.5% |
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
This Northwestern vs Oregon market analysis Oct 31 is a clear example of the v-bottom recovery pattern. The V-Bottom Recovery describes a game signal that drops sharply, finds a floor, and climbs back — creating a V shape on the chart that a trader buys near the bottom. Here, Oregon's signal fell from $0.695 at kickoff to $0.209 at Q2 1:34 as Northwestern built a 14-point lead, then reversed through three quarters of sustained Ducks scoring to reach $0.950 at the final whistle. The entry at $0.439 at the end of the first quarter captured the bulk of the recovery. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
The defining moment of this v-bottom recovery was Raiola's 75-yard touchdown strike to Dakorien Moore at Q4 10:20, which broke the game open and confirmed what the oversold RSI reading at Q1 0:00 had suggested: Oregon's $0.439 price was too cheap. This Northwestern vs Oregon market analysis Oct 31 shows how a deeply discounted home favorite, bought at the right oversold signal, can deliver a double-digit percentage return across a full game.
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