2026-10-31
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Notre Dame vs Navy market analysis Oct 31: The Setup
Asset: Navy Midshipmen (home underdog) | Opening: $0.013 | Spread: ND -30.5 | Kalshi: 2/3c
This Notre Dame vs Navy market analysis Oct 31 opens on a market priced almost entirely against the home side: NAVY's game signal opened at $0.013, reflecting a 30.5-point spread and Notre Dame arriving at 6-1 while Navy stood at 2-5. The Kalshi market agreed, quoting NAVY at just 2c bid / 3c ask at kickoff. The only scenario where NAVY's signal could move meaningfully was a fast start that forced Notre Dame into a deficit — a narrow path for a heavy underdog.
The Pattern: No Clear Opportunity — NAVY's game signal briefly spiked to $0.089 on a second-quarter touchdown, but the move was too compressed and too brief to produce a qualifying entry-exit window.
Going in: NAVY's $0.013 opening price left almost no room for a tradeable long; a sustained scoring run would be required to push the signal high enough to justify entry risk.
Who Decided It
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1): CJ Carr completed 19 of 29 passes for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Nolan James Jr. rushed 9 times for 107 yards and 2 scores, including a 52-yard burst that erased NAVY's brief lead.
- Navy Midshipmen (2-6): Jackson Gutierrez ran 28 times for 110 yards and a touchdown and was the engine of every NAVY drive, but the offense stalled completely after halftime and the defense could not contain Notre Dame's ground game.
First Quarter: Underdog Momentum Builds
Outlook check: The opening price said NAVY had almost no path to victory, but the first quarter showed the Midshipmen could move the ball.
NAVY won the opening possession and ran 14 plays over 8:17, with Gutierrez carrying repeatedly — rushes of 14, 6, and 2 yards pushed RSI on NAVY's line into overbought territory above 77 by Q1 10:09. The drive stalled inside the red zone, and Nolan Bartley converted a 38-yard field goal at Q1 6:43, lifting NAVY's signal to $0.023. Notre Dame answered with an 11-play, 75-yard drive capped by CJ Carr's 11-yard touchdown pass to Micah Gilbert at Q1 1:47, dropping NAVY's signal back to $0.015 and RSI to 36.5.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NAVY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | ND 0, NAVY 0 | $0.013 | – | 2/3c |
| Q1 7:21 | RSI exits overbought | ND 0, NAVY 0 | $0.022 | 64.8 | 3/5c |
| Q1 6:43 | Bartley 38-yd FG | ND 0, NAVY 3 | $0.023 | 64.5 | 3/5c |
| Q1 1:47 | Carr TD pass to Gilbert | ND 7, NAVY 3 | $0.015 | 36.5 | 2/3c |
| Q1 0:00 | End Q1 | ND 7, NAVY 3 | $0.017 | 46.7 | 2/3c |
Decision Point: Stay Out After the Field Goal
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NAVY bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:21 | ND 0, NAVY 0 | $0.022 | 64.8 | – | 3/5c |
Known at the time: RSI on NAVY's line had climbed into overbought territory during the opening drive and was now exiting at 64.8. NAVY's signal sat at $0.022 — barely above the opening price. The Kalshi ask was 5c.
The decision: Stay out. NAVY's signal was too low and the RSI exit from overbought signaled the drive's momentum was fading, not building. No entry threshold was met.
Outlook for the next quarter: NAVY needed to sustain drives and score again to push the signal toward a tradeable range; Notre Dame's quick answer made that harder.
Second Quarter: The Brief Peak and the Collapse
Outlook check: The outlook called for NAVY to sustain drives; they did — but a nullified 64-yard Gutierrez touchdown run at Q2 14:57 (wiped out by a holding penalty) illustrated how thin the margin was.
NAVY's second drive ran 16 plays and 8:43, ending in Bartley's second field goal — a 26-yarder at Q2 8:04 — that cut the deficit to 7-6. RSI on NAVY's line climbed back into overbought territory, reaching 84.8 by Q2 10:05 and then 89.8 at Q2 4:08 as Michael Barrow's 16-yard run pushed the drive deep. The signal reached $0.049 at Q2 4:08. NAVY then drove 63 yards in 11 plays, and Gutierrez punched in a 2-yard touchdown run at Q2 1:52 — NAVY's game signal spiked to $0.086 and RSI hit 90.1, the highest reading of the game. Kalshi quoted NAVY at 15/16c. Notre Dame responded in 50 seconds: Nolan James Jr. broke a 52-yard run at Q2 0:55 to retake the lead 14-13, and NAVY's signal collapsed to $0.038 with RSI falling to 30.9.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NAVY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:43 | RSI exits overbought | ND 7, NAVY 3 | $0.028 | 64.8 | 4/5c |
| Q2 8:04 | Bartley 26-yd FG | ND 7, NAVY 6 | $0.026 | 56.6 | 4/5c |
| Q2 1:52 | Gutierrez 2-yd TD run | ND 7, NAVY 13 | $0.086 | 90.1 | 15/16c |
| Q2 1:16 | RSI exits overbought | ND 7, NAVY 13 | $0.079 | 68.5 | 7/9c |
| Q2 0:55 | James Jr. 52-yd TD run | ND 14, NAVY 13 | $0.038 | 30.9 | 7/9c |
| Q2 0:00 | End Q2 | ND 14, NAVY 13 | $0.045 | 39.2 | 6/7c |
Decision Point: No Entry at the Peak
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NAVY bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 1:52 | ND 7, NAVY 13 | $0.086 | 90.1 | – | 15/16c |
Known at the time: NAVY's signal had just reached its game high of $0.086 on Gutierrez's touchdown. RSI on NAVY's line was at 90.1 — deep overbought. The Kalshi ask was 16c. With under two minutes left in the half, Notre Dame had the ball and time to respond.
The decision: No qualifying entry existed. The signal had spiked from $0.013 to $0.086 — a move of 7.3 cents — but the system requires a minimum 5-minute trade window and a 10% profit threshold from a confirmed entry signal. The RSI exit from overbought at Q2 1:16 (RSI 68.5) came with only 76 seconds left in the half, too narrow a window. James Jr.'s 52-yard run seconds later confirmed the risk: the peak was real, but untradeable.
Outlook for the next quarter: NAVY entered halftime trailing 14-13 with the signal at $0.045 — the closest the game had been. Any Notre Dame scoring run in the third would push NAVY's signal back toward its opening price.
Third Quarter: Signal Deterioration
Outlook check: The halftime signal of $0.045 suggested a game still in reach; the third quarter ended that quickly.
Notre Dame drove 78 yards in 11 plays, and Jonaz Walton's 3-yard run at Q3 9:15 made it 21-13. RSI on NAVY's line dropped into oversold territory immediately — falling to 26.2 at Q3 9:15 and continuing lower. NAVY went three-and-out. Notre Dame then drove 69 yards in 7 plays, with Nolan James Jr.'s 23-yard run at Q3 3:09 extending the lead to 28-13. RSI on NAVY's line hit 14.3. The signal fell to $0.006 by the end of the third quarter, with RSI at 12.5.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NAVY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:55 | RSI exits oversold | ND 14, NAVY 13 | $0.027 | 33.6 | 4/5c |
| Q3 9:15 | Walton 3-yd TD run | ND 21, NAVY 13 | $0.020 | 26.2 | 3/4c |
| Q3 3:09 | James Jr. 23-yd TD run | ND 28, NAVY 13 | $0.006 | 14.3 | 0/1c |
| Q3 0:00 | End Q3 | ND 28, NAVY 13 | $0.002 | 12.5 | 0/1c |
Decision Point: RSI Exit from Oversold — No Entry
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NAVY bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:55 | ND 14, NAVY 13 | $0.027 | 33.6 | – | 4/5c |
Known at the time: RSI on NAVY's line had exited oversold territory at 33.6, with the signal at $0.027. The score was still 14-13 — technically a one-possession game.
The decision: Stay out. The RSI exit from oversold fired before Notre Dame's next score, but the signal at $0.027 was 69% below NAVY's Q2 peak. The minimum trade window requirement was not met before Walton's touchdown dropped the signal further. No entry was taken.
Outlook for the next quarter: With NAVY's signal at $0.002 and RSI at 12.5, the fourth quarter offered no realistic entry point.
Fourth Quarter: Floor
Outlook check: The third-quarter outlook was correct — no entry materialized and the signal reached its floor.
CJ Carr hit Jerome Bettis Jr. on a 31-yard touchdown pass at Q4 14:55, making it 35-13 and pushing NAVY's signal to $0.001. RSI on NAVY's line locked at 11.4 for the entire quarter and never moved. NAVY fumbled on the next possession but recovered. Both teams ran out the clock, with Notre Dame's final drive consuming 7:02. The game ended 35-13 with NAVY's signal at $0.000 and RSI at 1.7.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NAVY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 14:55 | Carr TD pass to Bettis Jr. | ND 35, NAVY 13 | $0.001 | 11.4 | 0/1c |
| Q4 0:00 | End Q4 | ND 35, NAVY 13 | $0.000 | 1.7 | 0/1c |
Decision Point: No Action in the Fourth
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NAVY bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 14:55 | ND 35, NAVY 13 | $0.001 | 11.4 | – | 0/1c |
Known at the time: NAVY's signal was at $0.001 with RSI at 11.4 — deeply oversold but with no recovery catalyst. The Kalshi market quoted 0c bid / 1c ask.
The decision: No action. A signal at $0.001 with 15 minutes left and a 22-point deficit offered no viable long entry. The oversold reading was a reflection of the score, not a reversal signal.
Final Accounting
This Notre Dame vs Navy market analysis Oct 31 produced no qualifying trade windows.
No qualifying trade windows were detected in this game. While technical signals fired — including RSI on NAVY's line reaching 90.1 at Q2 1:52 and exiting oversold at Q3 9:55 — none met the systematic trading criteria for a complete entry and exit. The minimum 5-minute trade window and 10% profit threshold were not satisfied by any signal pair.
No Clear Opportunity in This Game
This Notre Dame vs Navy market analysis Oct 31 is a study in how a heavy-underdog game can generate RSI extremes without producing tradeable windows. The No Clear Opportunity pattern describes a game where technical signals appear but no entry-exit pair meets the criteria for a qualifying trade — either the window is too short, the profit threshold is not reached, or the signal reverses before a position can be established. Here, NAVY's game signal moved from $0.013 to $0.086 in the second quarter, but the entire move compressed into roughly 90 seconds of game clock before Notre Dame's Nolan James Jr. erased it with a 52-yard run. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#no-clear-opportunity).
This Notre Dame vs Navy market analysis Oct 31 confirms that RSI extremes alone — even readings above 90 — do not guarantee a tradeable setup when the underlying game signal lacks the time and space to develop a proper entry window.
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