2026-10-24
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Tennessee vs South Carolina market analysis Oct 24: The Setup
Asset: South Carolina Gamecocks (home favorite) | Opening: $0.421 | Spread: SC -2.5 | Kalshi: –
This Tennessee vs South Carolina market analysis Oct 24 covers a matchup between a 6-1 Tennessee squad and a South Carolina team sitting at 3-3, playing at Williams-Brice Stadium in front of 79,193 fans. Despite the home-field edge and the -2.5 spread, the Gamecocks opened at just $0.421 — the market leaning toward the Volunteers before kickoff.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — South Carolina's game signal plunged from $0.662 at the end of Q1 to $0.299 at halftime, then climbed all the way to $0.950 at the final whistle, tracing a sharp V on the chart.
Going in: The opening price of $0.421 reflected a market skeptical of the home favorite; a buy signal would require SC to show oversold conditions after a momentum collapse.
Who Decided It
- South Carolina Gamecocks (4-3): LaNorris Sellers carried the offense with 18 rushes for 96 yards and two touchdowns, adding 210 passing yards; Malik Orsan went 2-for-2 on field goals, including the game-winning 48-yarder.
- Tennessee Volunteers (6-2): DeSean Bishop ran for 120 yards on 32 carries, but George MacIntyre was held to 136 passing yards and was sacked twice; a late fumble ended Tennessee's final possession.
First Quarter: SC Surges, Signals Warn
Outlook check: The pre-game lean toward Tennessee was immediately challenged — SC scored on its opening drive and doubled the lead before the quarter ended.
LaNorris Sellers connected with Mazeo Bennett Jr. on a 17-yard touchdown pass at Q1 10:02, pushing the game signal to $0.577 with RSI spiking to 82.7 — deep overbought territory. Sellers then broke a 31-yard touchdown run at Q1 8:17, sending the signal to $0.742 and RSI to 82.2. Tennessee's response drive was nullified when a DaSaahn Brame touchdown was wiped out by an illegal shift penalty. By Q1 6:57, the MACD had crossed bearish and a bearish confluence signal fired — RSI at 67.2 with momentum rolling over. A bearish divergence followed at Q1 6:21: SC's game signal made a higher high at $0.747, but RSI printed a lower high of 73.9 versus the prior peak of 82.3, signaling buyer exhaustion. The quarter closed at $0.662, RSI 47.4.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi SC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:02 | Sellers TD pass to Bennett Jr. | TENN 0, SC 7 | $0.577 | 82.7 | – |
| Q1 8:17 | Sellers 31-yd TD run | TENN 0, SC 14 | $0.742 | 82.2 | – |
| Q1 6:57 | MACD bearish cross / confluence | TENN 0, SC 14 | $0.705 | 67.2 | – |
| Q1 6:21 | Bearish divergence | TENN 0, SC 14 | $0.747 | 73.9 | – |
| Q1 0:00 | End Q1 | TENN 0, SC 14 | $0.662 | 47.4 | – |
Decision Point: Stay Out — Bearish Signals on SC
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi SC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:57 | TENN 0, SC 14 | $0.705 | 67.2 | Bearish cross | – |
Known at the time: SC led 14-0, but the MACD had just crossed bearish with RSI at 67.2 — a confluence signal warning that momentum was fading from overbought levels. The bearish divergence at Q1 6:21 reinforced the caution.
The decision: Stay out of a long SC position. The game signal was elevated and momentum indicators were rolling over; the Tennessee vs South Carolina market analysis Oct 24 called for patience.
Outlook for the next quarter: Watch for SC's signal to retrace toward oversold territory — a drop below $0.40 with RSI under 30 would create a potential entry.
Second Quarter: The Collapse and the Entry
Outlook check: The bearish signals from Q1 proved correct — Tennessee erased the 14-point deficit and took the lead by halftime.
DeSean Bishop capped an 18-play, 75-yard Tennessee drive with a 1-yard touchdown run at Q2 14:12, cutting the deficit to 14-7. On SC's next possession, TJ Metcalf intercepted LaNorris Sellers at Q2 13:24, sending RSI crashing to 21.7 — the first oversold reading. Tennessee converted the turnover: DaSaahn Brame scored from 1 yard out at Q2 8:06 to tie the game at 14. SC answered with a Malik Orsan 22-yard field goal at Q2 1:44 to go up 17-14. Then, with 26 seconds left, Mike Matthews ran 8 yards for a Tennessee touchdown, giving the Volunteers a 21-17 lead. The game signal collapsed to $0.299 and RSI hit 21.1 — deeply oversold.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi SC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:12 | Bishop 1-yd TD run | TENN 7, SC 14 | $0.629 | 38.5 | – |
| Q2 13:24 | Metcalf INT off Sellers | TENN 7, SC 14 | $0.530 | 21.7 | – |
| Q2 8:06 | Brame 1-yd TD run | TENN 14, SC 14 | $0.444 | 34.1 | – |
| Q2 1:44 | Orsan 22-yd FG | TENN 14, SC 17 | $0.516 | 48.0 | – |
| Q2 0:24 | Matthews 8-yd TD run | TENN 21, SC 17 | $0.299 | 21.1 | – |
Decision Point: ENTRY — Long SC at $0.299
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi SC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:24 | TENN 21, SC 17 | $0.299 | 21.1 | Hist -1.82 | – |
Known at the time: Mike Matthews had just scored to give Tennessee a 21-17 lead with 24 seconds left in the half. SC's game signal sat at $0.299 — deeply oversold — with RSI at 21.1 and the MACD histogram at -1.82. The home team, a -2.5 spread favorite, was now trailing by 4 with the market pricing them at roughly 30 cents on the dollar.
The decision: Enter long SC at $0.299. The combination of extreme oversold RSI and a spread-relative discount on the home favorite made this the entry point for the v-bottom recovery trade.
Outlook for the next quarter: SC needs to hold Tennessee scoreless in Q3 and generate offensive momentum; any RSI recovery above 30 would confirm the bounce is underway.
Third Quarter: Grinding Through the Trough
Outlook check: The entry held — Tennessee did not score in Q3, but SC couldn't either, and the game signal remained depressed.
Both offenses stalled through a quarter dominated by punts and sacks. Mariyon Dye sacked Sellers for -3 yards at Q3 11:59, and a bullish divergence fired at that moment: SC's game signal made a lower low at $0.261 versus the prior low of $0.263, but RSI printed a higher low of 37.3 versus the prior 18.5 — sellers weakening. Tomiwa Durojaiye answered with a sack of George MacIntyre for -10 yards at Q3 10:30. Amare Campbell sacked Sellers again at Q3 2:42, and Xavier Gilliam added a third-down sack at Q3 1:33 — a turnover on downs — which triggered a MACD bearish cross. The quarter ended with the score still 21-17 and SC's signal at $0.261, RSI 49.7.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi SC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 11:59 | Sellers sacked by Dye, bullish divergence | TENN 21, SC 17 | $0.261 | 37.3 | – |
| Q3 1:33 | Sellers sacked by Gilliam, MACD bearish cross | TENN 21, SC 17 | $0.213 | 36.9 | – |
| Q3 0:00 | End Q3 | TENN 21, SC 17 | $0.261 | 49.7 | – |
Decision Point: Hold Long SC
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi SC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 0:00 | TENN 21, SC 17 | $0.261 | 49.7 | Bearish cross Q3 1:33 | – |
Known at the time: The MACD had crossed bearish late in Q3, but the bullish divergence earlier in the quarter showed seller momentum weakening. SC still trailed by 4 with a full quarter to play.
The decision: Hold the long SC position. The game signal remained well above the entry price of $0.299 on a relative basis — the position was underwater but the structural setup (home favorite, oversold entry) remained intact.
Outlook for the next quarter: SC must score; a Tennessee field goal extending the lead to 7 would pressure the position significantly.
Fourth Quarter: The V Completes
Outlook check: The outlook deteriorated before it improved — Tennessee extended the lead to 7 before SC's comeback materialized.
Cooper Ranvier's 37-yard field goal at Q4 11:46 pushed Tennessee ahead 24-17, dropping SC's signal to $0.166. Sellers was sacked twice more — by Jordan Norman and Tyree Weathersby at Q4 9:35, then by Qua Moss at Q4 9:07 — sending the signal to a low of $0.055 at Q4 3:45, where RSI exited oversold at 34.5. A MACD bullish cross fired at Q4 3:35. Then Sellers drove SC 61 yards in 2:18, capping it with a 4-yard touchdown run at Q4 1:17 — the call upheld after automatic review — to tie the game 24-24. Dylan Stewart sacked MacIntyre at Q4 0:33, forcing a fumble and giving SC the ball at the Tennessee 34. Malik Orsan split the uprights from 48 yards as time expired. SC won 27-24.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi SC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 11:46 | Ranvier 37-yd FG | TENN 24, SC 17 | $0.166 | 41.8 | – |
| Q4 3:45 | RSI exits oversold | TENN 24, SC 17 | $0.055 | 34.5 | – |
| Q4 3:35 | MACD bullish cross | TENN 24, SC 17 | $0.102 | 51.9 | – |
| Q4 1:17 | Sellers 4-yd TD run | TENN 24, SC 24 | $0.472 | 83.6 | – |
| Q4 0:00 | Orsan 48-yd FG (game winner) | TENN 24, SC 27 | $0.950 | 84.7 | – |
Decision Point: EXIT — Long SC at $0.950
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi SC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | TENN 24, SC 27 | $0.950 | 84.7 | Hist +4.33 | – |
Known at the time: Malik Orsan's 48-yard field goal ended the game. SC's signal reached $0.950 with RSI at 84.7 — deeply overbought. The game was over; the exit was automatic.
The decision: Exit long SC at $0.950. The v-bottom recovery had fully resolved, from $0.299 at entry to $0.950 at the final whistle.
Final Accounting
This Tennessee vs South Carolina market analysis Oct 24 produced one completed trade with a +217.4% return on the game signal.
| Trade | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long SC (Q2 0:24) | $0.299 | $0.95 | +217.4% |
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
This Tennessee vs South Carolina market analysis Oct 24 is a clear example of the v-bottom recovery pattern in college football market analysis. A V-Bottom Recovery occurs when a team's game signal plunges sharply, finds a floor in oversold territory, then climbs back to close near its high — forming a V on the chart. Here, South Carolina's signal dropped from $0.662 at the end of Q1 to $0.299 at halftime (RSI 21.1), then recovered all the way to $0.950 by the final play, a 65-point round trip driven by Sellers's late touchdown and Orsan's walk-off field goal. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
The Tennessee vs South Carolina market analysis Oct 24 shows that the deepest discount on the home favorite — a -2.5 spread team priced at $0.299 — came at the exact moment of maximum pessimism, and the v-bottom recovery delivered +217.4% for traders who held through the noise.
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