2026-10-31
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Texas State vs Boise State market analysis Oct 31: The Setup
Asset: Boise State Broncos (home favorite) | Opening: $0.854 | Spread: BOIS -10 | Kalshi: 78/79c
This Texas State vs Boise State market analysis Oct 31 covers a Mountain West showdown at Albertsons Stadium between a 6-1 Boise State squad and a 4-3 Texas State side that entered as a 10-point underdog. The Broncos opened at $0.854 — a strong favorite signal — but the game's second half would test that premium severely before confirming it.
The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — Boise State's game signal plunged from $0.995 at halftime to $0.063 by Q4 8:41, then reversed to close at $0.950, tracing a deep V on the chart.
Going in: At $0.854, the market priced Boise State as a comfortable favorite; a buy signal would require the price to drop well below that opening and show momentum turning back up.
Who Decided It
- Boise State Broncos (7-1): Max Cutforth entered in the fourth quarter and threw three touchdown passes — to Rasean Jones twice and Akeem Wright — driving the comeback from an 11-point deficit.
- Texas State Bobcats (4-4): Brad Jackson was efficient (23/38, 327 yards, 4 TD passes, 1 rushing TD), but Mana Tuioti's interception of Tucker Cusano at Q4 5:15 ended Texas State's final scoring drive and swung the game.
First Quarter: Boise State Dominates Early
Outlook check: The opening outlook called for Boise State to hold its premium — it did, and then some.
Boise State's opening drive covered 83 yards on 13 plays before Maddux Madsen punched in a 6-yard touchdown run at Q1 5:35, pushing the game signal to $0.915 with RSI at 70.9 — the first overbought reading of the game. The Broncos' price climbed steadily through the quarter, reaching $0.932 at the horn. Texas State managed just one first down on its opening possession before punting; a muffed punt by Cam Bates was overturned on review, keeping the ball with Boise State.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | TXST 0, BOIS 0 | $0.854 | — | 78/79c |
| Q1 5:35 | Madsen 6-yd TD run | TXST 0, BOIS 7 | $0.915 | 70.9 | 86/87c |
| Q1 0:17 | RSI exits overbought | TXST 0, BOIS 7 | $0.936 | 65.8 | 92/93c |
| Q1 0:00 | End Q1 | TXST 0, BOIS 7 | $0.932 | 58.8 | 92/93c |
Decision Point: Hold — No Entry Signal
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | TXST 0, BOIS 7 | $0.932 | 58.8 | — | 92/93c |
Known at the time: Boise State led 7-0, the game signal sat at $0.932, and RSI had pulled back from overbought but remained elevated. No oversold conditions existed.
The decision: Stay out — the price was near its opening high with no reversal signal to trade against.
Outlook for Q2: A second Boise State score would push RSI back into overbought territory; watch for any Texas State response that could create a dip worth monitoring.
Second Quarter: Boise State Extends, RSI Peaks
Outlook check: Boise State extended the lead as expected; RSI climbed into extreme overbought territory.
Dylan Riley's 5-yard touchdown run at Q2 13:44 made it 14-0, and Maddux Madsen's 1-yard plunge at Q2 4:13 — set up by a 30-yard completion to Keawe Browne — pushed it to 21-3 after Jacob Bonilla's 31-yard field goal for Texas State. RSI hit 83.5 on that score. Madsen then found Rasean Jones for a 12-yard touchdown with four seconds left, sending the game signal to $0.995 and RSI to 87.6 — an extreme overbought reading. Boise State led 28-3 at halftime.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:44 | Riley 5-yd TD run | TXST 0, BOIS 14 | $0.960 | 75.8 | 94/95c |
| Q2 7:33 | Bonilla 31-yd FG | TXST 3, BOIS 14 | $0.952 | 55.8 | 92/93c |
| Q2 4:13 | Madsen 1-yd TD run | TXST 3, BOIS 21 | $0.979 | 83.5 | 97/98c |
| Q2 0:04 | Jones 12-yd TD pass | TXST 3, BOIS 28 | $0.995 | 87.6 | 98/99c |
| Q2 0:00 | End Q2 | TXST 3, BOIS 28 | $0.995 | 78.4 | — |
Decision Point: Hold — Overbought, No Short Available
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:04 | TXST 3, BOIS 28 | $0.995 | 87.6 | — | 98/99c |
Known at the time: RSI hit 87.6 — extreme overbought — as Madsen connected with Jones on the final play of the half. The game signal was near its ceiling at $0.995.
The decision: No trade — the price had no room to run higher, and there is no short position in this market. The extreme overbought reading was a caution flag, not an entry.
Outlook for Q3: Any Texas State scoring run would compress the game signal sharply from these heights; watch RSI for an oversold turn.
Third Quarter: Texas State's Comeback Begins
Outlook check: The caution flag proved warranted — Texas State scored three touchdowns in the third quarter, collapsing the game signal from $0.996 to $0.785.
Brad Jackson's 67-yard touchdown pass to Chris Dawn Jr. at Q3 9:21 opened the scoring, dropping RSI to 22.7. After a Harry Stewart III fumble gave Texas State the ball at the Boise State 41, Jackson hit Ty Stamey for a 3-yard score at Q3 4:58 — RSI fell to 14.9. Jackson then broke a 35-yard touchdown run at Q3 2:49, cutting the deficit to 28-25 with RSI at 9.0. The game signal closed the quarter at $0.785 — down 21 points from halftime.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:21 | Dawn 67-yd TD pass | TXST 10, BOIS 28 | $0.987 | 22.7 | 98/99c |
| Q3 4:58 | Stamey 3-yd TD pass | TXST 18, BOIS 28 | $0.948 | 14.9 | 93/94c |
| Q3 2:49 | Jackson 35-yd TD run | TXST 25, BOIS 28 | $0.823 | 9.0 | 73/74c |
| Q3 0:00 | End Q3 | TXST 25, BOIS 28 | $0.785 | 33.6 | 65/66c |
Decision Point: Monitor — Oversold but No Entry Yet
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 0:00 | TXST 25, BOIS 28 | $0.785 | 33.6 | — | 65/66c |
Known at the time: RSI had been deeply oversold through the quarter (touching 7.3 at Q3 3:56) but recovered to 33.6 at the horn. The game signal was $0.785 — still above the spread's implied fair value for a 10-point favorite. The minimum trade window of five minutes had not yet produced a qualifying signal.
The decision: Stay out — the price had not dropped far enough below the spread's expected level to trigger an entry, and the quarter ended before conditions matured.
Outlook for Q4: A Texas State score to open the fourth would push the game signal below $0.60 and likely drive RSI back into extreme oversold territory — the setup for a V-bottom entry.
Fourth Quarter: Three Entries, One V-Bottom
Outlook check: The outlook was correct — Texas State scored immediately, and the game signal collapsed further than anticipated.
Brad Jackson found Beau Sparks on a 44-yard touchdown pass at Q4 13:48, giving Texas State a 32-28 lead and dropping the Boise State game signal to $0.539 with RSI at 15.7. That was Trade 1's entry trigger — the game signal had fallen well below the spread's expected price and RSI was deep in oversold territory. Boise State's next drive went three-and-out, and at Q4 13:08, with Maddux Madsen's short completion losing 7 yards, the game signal fell further to $0.441 and RSI hit 11.7 — Trade 2's entry. Brad Jackson then rushed for 8 yards at Q4 11:43, and with the game signal at $0.336 and RSI at 8.4, Trade 3 triggered.
The game signal then plunged to its low of $0.063 at Q4 8:41 after Jayden Bradley returned a Madsen interception 20 yards for a touchdown at Q4 8:58, making it 39-28. RSI hit 13.1 — a higher low than the prior 8.4, a bullish divergence. At Q4 6:50, MACD crossed bullish with RSI at 30.9, a confluence signal. Max Cutforth replaced Madsen and drove Boise State 75 yards, hitting Rasean Jones for a 9-yard score at Q4 6:15 (39-34). Mana Tuioti intercepted Tucker Cusano at Q4 5:15, and Cutforth found Jones again for an 11-yard touchdown at Q4 4:14 to make it 40-39. Zechariah Sample's 72-yard touchdown catch at Q4 3:46 put Texas State back up 45-40 — MACD crossed bearish — but Cutforth drove 75 yards in six plays, hitting Akeem Wright for an 18-yard score at Q4 2:40. Boise State held on for a 46-45 win. All three trades exited at game's end with the game signal at $0.950.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 13:48 | Sparks 44-yd TD — ENTRY T1 | TXST 32, BOIS 28 | $0.539 | 15.7 | 47/48c |
| Q4 13:08 | Madsen pass, -7 yds — ENTRY T2 | TXST 32, BOIS 28 | $0.441 | 11.7 | 93/94c |
| Q4 11:43 | Jackson 8-yd rush — ENTRY T3 | TXST 32, BOIS 28 | $0.336 | 8.4 | — |
| Q4 8:58 | Bradley 20-yd INT TD | TXST 39, BOIS 28 | $0.107 | 14.5 | — |
| Q4 8:41 | Bullish divergence (RSI 13.1) | TXST 39, BOIS 28 | $0.063 | 13.1 | — |
| Q4 6:50 | MACD bullish cross + RSI exits oversold | TXST 39, BOIS 28 | $0.112 | 30.9 | — |
| Q4 6:15 | Jones 9-yd TD (Cutforth) | TXST 39, BOIS 34 | $0.245 | 53.8 | — |
| Q4 4:14 | Jones 11-yd TD (Cutforth) | TXST 39, BOIS 40 | $0.671 | 68.9 | — |
| Q4 3:46 | Sample 72-yd TD — MACD bearish | TXST 45, BOIS 40 | $0.269 | 42.0 | — |
| Q4 2:40 | Wright 18-yd TD (Cutforth) | TXST 45, BOIS 46 | $0.672 | 63.8 | — |
| Q4 0:00 | End of game — EXIT T1/T2/T3 | TXST 45, BOIS 46 | $0.950 | 74.1 | — |
Decision Point 1: Trade 1 Entry — Long BOIS at Q4 13:48
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD hist | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 13:48 | TXST 32, BOIS 28 | $0.539 | 15.7 | -1.57 | 47/48c |
Known at the time: Brad Jackson's 44-yard touchdown pass to Beau Sparks had just flipped the lead to Texas State. The game signal dropped to $0.539 — well below the spread's implied price for a 10-point favorite — and RSI sat at 15.7, deeply oversold. MACD histogram was negative at -1.57. Kalshi quoted BOIS at 47/48c.
The decision: Long BOIS at $0.539 — the game signal had fallen far enough below the spread's expected level to trigger a tier-4 oversold entry. This is the Texas State vs Boise State market analysis Oct 31 entry that opened the position.
Decision Point 2: Trade 2 Entry — Long BOIS at Q4 13:08
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD hist | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 13:08 | TXST 32, BOIS 28 | $0.441 | 11.7 | -2.84 | 93/94c |
Known at the time: Maddux Madsen's short completion to Dylan Riley lost 7 yards. The game signal slid to $0.441 and RSI fell to 11.7 — a stronger oversold reading than Trade 1's entry. MACD histogram deepened to -2.84.
The decision: Add to the position — Long BOIS at $0.441. The deeper oversold reading justified a second entry at a lower price.
Decision Point 3: Trade 3 Entry — Long BOIS at Q4 11:43
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD hist | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 11:43 | TXST 32, BOIS 28 | $0.336 | 8.4 | -2.29 | — |
Known at the time: Brad Jackson's 8-yard rush moved Texas State toward midfield. The game signal fell to $0.336 — a tier-1 extreme oversold reading — with RSI at 8.4 and MACD histogram at -2.29. No Kalshi quote was available.
The decision: Add a third position — Long BOIS at $0.336. RSI at 8.4 represented the deepest oversold reading of the game to that point, and the spread's implied value was far above the current price.
Decision Point 4: Exit — All Three Trades at Q4 0:00
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD hist | Kalshi BOIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | TXST 45, BOIS 46 | $0.950 | 74.1 | +1.06 | — |
Known at the time: Boise State had won 46-45. The game signal closed at $0.950 with RSI at 74.1 and MACD histogram positive at +1.06. All three positions exited at game's end.
The decision: Exit all — Long BOIS positions closed at $0.950 as the final whistle confirmed the result.
Final Accounting
This Texas State vs Boise State market analysis Oct 31 produced three completed trades, all Long BOIS, entered at progressively lower prices during the fourth-quarter collapse and exited at game's end.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Game Signal return | Kalshi entry (ask) | Kalshi exit (bid) | Kalshi return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long BOIS | $0.539 (Q4 13:48) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +76.3% | 48c | — | — |
| 2 | Long BOIS | $0.441 (Q4 13:08) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +115.5% | 94c | — | — |
| 3 | Long BOIS | $0.336 (Q4 11:43) | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +182.7% | — | — | — |
| Average | +124.8% |
V-Bottom Recovery in This Game
This Texas State vs Boise State market analysis Oct 31 shows a V-Bottom Recovery: the Boise State game signal dropped from $0.995 at halftime to $0.063 at Q4 8:41 — an 93-point collapse — before reversing to close at $0.950. A V-Bottom Recovery occurs when a team's game signal plunges, turns, and climbs back at least 30 points, tracing a V on the chart; the entry is taken near the bottom. Here, three entries were placed on the way down between $0.539 and $0.336 as RSI reached extreme oversold levels, and the subsequent rally through Max Cutforth's three fourth-quarter touchdown passes delivered returns of +76.3%, +115.5%, and +182.7%. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).
The complete picture of this Texas State vs Boise State market analysis Oct 31 is a game where a 25-point halftime lead evaporated in under 30 minutes of game clock, and the technical signals — not the scoreboard — identified the moment the market had overshot.
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