2026-10-24
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West Virginia vs TCU market analysis Oct 24: The Setup
Asset: TCU Horned Frogs (home favorite) | Opening: $0.787 | Spread: TCU -10 | Kalshi: —
This West Virginia vs TCU market analysis Oct 24 opens with TCU installed as a 10-point home favorite at Amon G. Carter Stadium, entering at 3-3 against West Virginia's 4-3. The Horned Frogs held a structural edge on paper, but the spread implied a dominant performance that never materialized.
The Pattern: Dead Cat Bounce — TCU's game signal fell twice on West Virginia scoring runs, bounced on each occasion, and the trade bought the dip and sold the bounce before the final collapse.
Going in: TCU opened at $0.787; a hold above $0.70 with WVU's offense contained would keep the favorite thesis intact.
Who Decided It
- West Virginia Mountaineers (5-3): Michael Hawkins Jr. carried the offense on the ground — 20 carries, 87 yards, two rushing touchdowns — while Cam Cook added 90 rushing yards on 18 carries. Hawkins completed just 7 of 15 passes for 79 yards but his legs were the difference.
- TCU Horned Frogs (3-4): Jaden Craig threw for 372 yards on 33-of-47 passing but was sacked three times and fumbled twice, losing both. The Horned Frogs could not convert when it mattered most in the fourth quarter.
First Quarter: Overbought Peak, Early Reversal
Outlook check: The opening thesis held early — TCU drove 91 yards in 16 plays for a touchdown — but WVU's opening field goal kept the signal from running away.
Jack Cassidy opened the scoring with a 54-yard field goal at Q1 12:19, dropping TCU's signal to $0.752 with RSI at 38.8. TCU responded with a methodical 9-minute drive capped by Jaden Craig's 6-yard touchdown pass to Ka'Morreun Pimpton at Q1 3:07, pushing the signal to $0.832 and RSI to 71.4 — overbought territory. By Q1 0:48, RSI had retreated to 27.9 as WVU's Cam Cook ripped off a 31-yard run, and the signal settled at $0.762 at the end of the quarter.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:19 | Cassidy 54-yd FG | WVU 3, TCU 0 | $0.752 | 38.8 | — |
| Q1 3:07 | Craig TD pass to Pimpton | WVU 3, TCU 7 | $0.832 | 71.4 | — |
| Q1 0:00 | End of Q1 | WVU 3, TCU 7 | $0.762 | 36.2 | — |
Decision Point: Hold — No Entry Signal
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | WVU 3, TCU 7 | $0.762 | 36.2 | — | — |
Known at the time: TCU led 7-3 with RSI cooling from overbought. The signal was above the opening price and no oversold condition had developed.
The decision: Stay out. The signal was elevated and RSI had not reached a level that warranted a long entry.
Outlook for Q2: Watch for WVU to sustain pressure; a TCU turnover or WVU score could push the signal toward a tradeable dip.
Second Quarter: Turnovers and a Tied Game
Outlook check: The caution was warranted. WVU scored on their opening Q2 drive and turnovers from both sides kept the signal choppy.
Michael Hawkins Jr. capped a 10-play, 68-yard drive with a 2-yard touchdown run at Q2 13:58, flipping the lead to WVU 10-7 and dropping TCU's signal to $0.714. Craig fumbled on the next drive, and WVU's Kylin Jackson intercepted Hawkins on the following possession. Craig then threw his own interception to Chams Diagne at Q2 1:04. Nate McCashland's 39-yard field goal at Q2 6:02 tied the game at 10-10, and both teams went to halftime level. RSI closed the half at 50.2 with the signal at $0.744.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:58 | Hawkins 2-yd TD run | WVU 10, TCU 7 | $0.714 | 30.6 | — |
| Q2 6:02 | McCashland 39-yd FG | WVU 10, TCU 10 | $0.724 | 44.4 | — |
| Q2 0:00 | End of Q2 | WVU 10, TCU 10 | $0.744 | 50.2 | — |
Decision Point: Hold — Signal Neutral at Half
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:00 | WVU 10, TCU 10 | $0.744 | 50.2 | — | — |
Known at the time: A tied game with RSI at 50 and the signal near the opening price. No oversold condition, no directional conviction.
The decision: Hold cash. The signal offered no edge — neither overbought nor oversold — and the spread implied TCU still needed to cover 10 points.
Outlook for Q3: TCU needed to establish a lead; any WVU score first would create the kind of oversold dip worth watching.
Third Quarter: First Dead Cat Bounce Entry
Outlook check: The outlook proved correct. WVU scored first in Q3, creating the oversold entry the system was waiting for.
McCashland's second field goal, from 37 yards at Q3 10:54, gave TCU a 13-10 lead and pushed the signal to $0.773. WVU answered immediately: a 5-play, 75-yard drive ended with Michael Hawkins Jr.'s 36-yard touchdown run at Q3 8:56, flipping the score to WVU 17-13. The signal cratered to $0.580 and RSI plunged to 17.7 — deeply oversold. A personal foul on TCU's Markis Deal on the kickoff pushed RSI to a trough of 15.2 before the signal began stabilizing.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 10:54 | McCashland 37-yd FG | WVU 10, TCU 13 | $0.773 | 51.6 | — |
| Q3 8:56 | Hawkins 36-yd TD run | WVU 17, TCU 13 | $0.580 | 17.7 | — |
| Q3 3:22 | Denman 21-yd rush | WVU 17, TCU 13 | $0.702 | 65.6 | — |
| Q3 1:15 | Craig 2-yd TD run | WVU 17, TCU 20 | $0.754 | 66.3 | — |
| Q3 0:00 | End of Q3 | WVU 17, TCU 20 | $0.710 | 52.5 | — |
Decision Point: ENTRY — Long TCU at Q3 8:56
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 8:56 | WVU 17, TCU 13 | $0.580 | 17.7 | −1.67 hist | — |
Known at the time: Hawkins Jr.'s 36-yard touchdown run had just put WVU ahead by four. TCU's signal dropped to $0.580 with RSI at 17.7 — deeply oversold relative to the spread's expected price. MACD histogram was negative at −1.67.
The decision: Long TCU at $0.580. The oversold reading against the spread's implied price created the entry. After the entry, RSI exited oversold territory at Q3 7:41 and a bullish divergence formed at Q3 6:23 (RSI 30.7, a higher low than the prior 15.2) — but those signals came after the entry was made.
Decision Point: EXIT — Long TCU at Q3 3:22
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 3:22 | WVU 17, TCU 13 | $0.702 | 65.6 | +1.52 hist | — |
Known at the time: Jon Denman's 21-yard rush had moved TCU deep into WVU territory. The signal had recovered to $0.702 with RSI at 65.6 and MACD histogram flipping positive to +1.52. The bounce had run its course.
The decision: Exit Long TCU at $0.702, locking in +21.1%. The signal had recovered from the oversold dip; the dead cat bounce had played out.
Outlook for Q4: TCU led 20-17 heading into the fourth. A MACD bearish cross at Q4 14:50 would be the first warning sign; watch for WVU to reclaim the lead and create a second entry.
Fourth Quarter: Second Entry, Deeper Oversold
Outlook check: The bearish MACD cross at Q4 14:50 materialized immediately. WVU drove 75 yards in 14 plays to retake the lead, and the signal collapsed again.
Michael Hawkins Jr.'s 13-yard touchdown pass to Cam Cook at Q4 11:28 put WVU up 24-20, dropping TCU's signal to $0.459 with RSI at 26.7. TCU's next drive stalled on a turnover on downs at Q4 9:03 — Jaden Craig's incomplete pass to Jon Denman — and the signal fell further to $0.349 with RSI at 27.5. WVU then ran the ball for three minutes, keeping RSI pinned in oversold territory through Q4 5:52. TCU finally got the ball back at Q4 5:46 and drove 67 yards in 17 plays. At Q4 0:44, Craig's incomplete pass to Jordan Dwyer left the signal at $0.562 with RSI spiking to 71.3 — overbought. Nate Gabriel's sack and fumble recovery at Q4 0:34 ended TCU's hopes.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 11:28 | Cook 13-yd TD catch | WVU 24, TCU 20 | $0.459 | 26.7 | — |
| Q4 9:03 | Craig turnover on downs | WVU 24, TCU 20 | $0.349 | 27.5 | — |
| Q4 0:44 | Craig incomplete pass | WVU 24, TCU 20 | $0.562 | 71.3 | — |
| Q4 0:00 | Final | WVU 24, TCU 20 | $0.000 | 31.8 | — |
Decision Point: ENTRY — Long TCU at Q4 9:03
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 9:03 | WVU 24, TCU 20 | $0.349 | 27.5 | −1.54 hist | — |
Known at the time: Craig's turnover on downs had just handed WVU the ball with a four-point lead and nine minutes left. TCU's signal sat at $0.349 — deeply oversold versus the spread's implied price — with RSI at 27.5 and MACD histogram at −1.54. The setup mirrored the Q3 entry structure.
The decision: Long TCU at $0.349. The oversold reading against the spread created the second entry. Subsequent signals — RSI exiting oversold at Q4 6:32 and Q4 4:52, a MACD bullish cross at Q4 4:33, a bearish cross at Q4 3:08, a bullish divergence at Q4 3:08, and another MACD bullish cross at Q4 2:22 — all came after the entry.
Decision Point: EXIT — Long TCU at Q4 0:44
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:44 | WVU 24, TCU 20 | $0.562 | 71.3 | +3.51 hist | — |
Known at the time: Craig's incomplete pass to Dwyer left TCU needing a score with under a minute left. RSI hit 71.3 — overbought — and MACD histogram was +3.51. The bounce had reached its limit.
The decision: Exit Long TCU at $0.562, capturing +61.0%. Seconds later, Gabriel's sack and fumble ended the game, confirming the exit was correct.
Final Accounting
The West Virginia vs TCU market analysis Oct 24 produced two completed trades, both Long TCU, both entered on oversold dips and exited on the bounce.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Game Signal Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long TCU | $0.580 (Q3 8:56) | $0.702 (Q3 3:22) | +21.1% |
| 2 | Long TCU | $0.349 (Q4 9:03) | $0.562 (Q4 0:44) | +61.0% |
| Average | +41.0% |
Dead Cat Bounce in This Game
The West Virginia vs TCU market analysis Oct 24 is a clear example of the dead cat bounce pattern. The underdog won: West Virginia's game signal rose from $0.213 to $1.00 while TCU's fell from $0.787 to zero. The favorite's signal dropped sharply twice — first on Hawkins Jr.'s 36-yard touchdown run in Q3, then on Cook's 13-yard touchdown catch in Q4 — bounced each time as TCU threatened to respond, and then collapsed for good when Gabriel's sack ended the game. Each bounce was bought at the oversold entry and sold before the next leg down. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#dead-cat-bounce).
This West Virginia vs TCU market analysis Oct 24 shows that the dead cat bounce does not require a dramatic single collapse — two separate oversold entries, each sold on the bounce, delivered an average return of +41.0% even as TCU ultimately lost by four points.
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