2026-10-22
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New England vs Chicago market analysis Oct 22: The Setup
Asset: New England Patriots (road underdog) | Opening: $0.430 | Spread: CHI -3 | Kalshi: 40/41c
This New England vs Chicago market analysis Oct 22 tracks a road underdog entering Soldier Field at 4-2, matched against a Chicago Bears squad also at 4-2 and favored by three. Both teams carried identical records, making the spread a thin margin — the kind of setup where a fast start by the favorite can push the underdog's game signal into deeply oversold territory.
The Pattern: Double Bottom — New England's game signal dipped to $0.204, recovered to $0.357, then collapsed again to $0.162 before a second recovery carried the signal to $0.260; two separate buys, neither a full V.
Going in: The Patriots opened at $0.430 (43/44c Kalshi), reflecting the three-point spread. A quick Chicago scoring run would push that signal lower and create the first entry window.
Who Decided It
- Chicago Bears (5-2): Caleb Williams completed 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns, while Cairo Santos converted three of four field goals including a 58-yarder that sealed the game.
- New England Patriots (4-3): Drake Maye finished 24 of 31 for 321 yards with two touchdown passes and a rushing score, but a second-quarter interception by D'Marco Jackson proved costly in a six-point defeat.
First Quarter: Favorite Takes Control
Outlook check: The opening outlook called for a Chicago scoring run to create an entry — that materialized faster than expected.
Cairo Santos connected on a 43-yard field goal at Q1 9:53, pushing the NE game signal from $0.430 down to $0.349 with RSI at 39.0. A bullish divergence signal fired at Q1 8:28 — RSI held a higher low of 32.6 against a lower game signal low — but the signal was early and the price continued to fall. Chicago's offense then drove 74 yards in five plays, capped by D'Andre Swift's four-yard touchdown run at Q1 1:38, sending the NE game signal to $0.201 and RSI to 21.7 — deeply oversold. Corey Kiner returned the ensuing kickoff to the NE 26, and the Patriots began their response drive.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Opening | NE 0, CHI 0 | $0.430 | – | 40/41c |
| Q1 9:53 | Santos 43-yd FG | NE 0, CHI 3 | $0.349 | 39.0 | 34/35c |
| Q1 8:28 | Bullish divergence signal | NE 0, CHI 3 | $0.315 | 32.6 | 29/30c |
| Q1 1:38 | Swift 4-yd TD run | NE 0, CHI 10 | $0.201 | 21.7 | 20/21c |
| Q1 1:38 | ENTRY Trade 1 | NE 0, CHI 10 | $0.204 | 22.9 | 20/21c |
Decision Point: Long NE After Swift Touchdown
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NE bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:38 | NE 0, CHI 10 | $0.204 | 22.9 | -1.61 | 20/21c |
Known at the time: The New England vs Chicago market analysis Oct 22 shows RSI at 22.9 — deep oversold — with MACD histogram at -1.61 after Chicago's 10-0 lead. The game signal had dropped 22.6 points from the open. Corey Kiner had just returned the kickoff to the NE 26, giving the Patriots decent field position to begin a response drive.
The decision: Enter Long NE at $0.204. RSI at 22.9 signaled a momentum floor, and the Patriots had 1:38 remaining in the quarter plus a full drive ahead. The oversold reading on a three-point underdog with ball in hand justified the entry.
Outlook for Q2: A New England score early in the second quarter would lift RSI out of oversold and push the game signal toward $0.30+. Watch for RSI crossing above 30 as the first confirmation.
Second Quarter: Double Bottom Forms
Outlook check: The Q1 outlook held — New England scored on the opening drive of Q2, but Chicago answered twice to force the second bottom.
Drake Maye capped a nine-play, 74-yard drive with a seven-yard scramble touchdown at Q2 11:33 (the play was initially ruled short of the goal line; New England challenged and the ruling was reversed). The NE game signal jumped to $0.320, RSI to 68.5. Santos added his second field goal at Q2 7:04 to push Chicago back to a six-point lead, and the signal slipped to $0.275. At Q2 5:04, with Corey Kiner gaining seven yards up the middle, RSI reached 71.2 — overbought — triggering the Trade 1 exit.
Then the pattern's second leg formed. Drake Maye's deep pass intended for Eli Raridon was intercepted by D'Marco Jackson at Q2 3:32, and the game signal fell sharply. Caleb Williams then hit Luther Burden III on a 24-yard touchdown pass at Q2 0:14, extending Chicago's lead to 13 (NE 7, CHI 20) and dropping the NE signal to $0.107, RSI 26.8. With D'Andre Swift gaining 10 yards on a run to the NE 17 at Q2 1:16, RSI had already reached 27.6 — the second oversold entry.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:33 | Maye 7-yd TD scramble | NE 7, CHI 10 | $0.320 | 68.5 | 30/31c |
| Q2 7:04 | Santos 31-yd FG | NE 7, CHI 13 | $0.275 | 52.4 | 28/29c |
| Q2 5:04 | EXIT Trade 1 +75.5% | NE 7, CHI 13 | $0.357 | 71.2 | 36/37c |
| Q2 3:32 | Maye INT (D'Marco Jackson) | NE 7, CHI 13 | $0.248 | 40.1 | 25/26c |
| Q2 1:16 | ENTRY Trade 2 | NE 7, CHI 13 | $0.162 | 27.6 | 17/18c |
| Q2 0:14 | Burden 24-yd TD pass | NE 7, CHI 20 | $0.107 | 26.8 | 13/14c |
| Q2 0:00 | Stevenson 48-yd TD pass | NE 14, CHI 20 | $0.233 | 57.9 | 27/28c |
Decision Point: Exit Trade 1 at RSI Overbought
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NE bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 5:04 | NE 7, CHI 13 | $0.357 | 71.2 | +1.20 | 36/37c |
Known at the time: RSI crossed into overbought at 71.2 with MACD histogram turning positive at +1.20. The game signal had moved from $0.204 to $0.357 — a 75.5% gain. Kiner's seven-yard run was the play at exit; no additional scoring had occurred since Maye's touchdown.
The decision: Exit Long NE at $0.357. RSI overbought with the game signal near its recovery peak was the signal to close.
Decision Point: Long NE at the Second Bottom
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NE bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 1:16 | NE 7, CHI 13 | $0.162 | 27.6 | -1.35 | 17/18c |
Known at the time: RSI at 27.6 with MACD histogram at -1.35. The game signal had fallen from the Q2 5:04 exit price of $0.357 back to $0.162 — a second oversold reading lower than the first. D'Andre Swift had just run for 10 yards to the NE 17, and Chicago led by six with under two minutes left in the half.
The decision: Enter Long NE at $0.162. The second oversold reading, lower than the first, set up the double bottom structure. The MACD was still negative, but RSI at 27.6 on a team trailing by six with Drake Maye at quarterback justified re-entry.
Outlook for Q3: A Maye scoring drive to open the second half would lift the signal above $0.20 and confirm the second leg of the double bottom. A Chicago touchdown on the opening drive would break the setup.
Third Quarter: Second Leg Resolves
Outlook check: The Q2 outlook did not hold immediately — Chicago scored first in Q3, deepening the second bottom before the recovery.
Caleb Williams hit Colston Loveland on a 12-yard touchdown pass at Q3 9:41, pushing Chicago's lead to 13 (NE 14, CHI 27) and dropping the NE game signal to $0.099. RSI fell to 29.7, and a bullish divergence signal fired — RSI held a higher low of 29.2 against a lower game signal low, confirming the double bottom structure was intact. A second double-bottom confirmation followed at Q3 6:32 with the signal at $0.097. Then Drake Maye found Eli Raridon on a 30-yard touchdown pass at Q3 3:46, lifting the signal to $0.212 and RSI to 65.9. At Q3 3:09, with Caleb Williams's deep pass to Colston Loveland falling incomplete, RSI reached 72.9 — overbought — triggering the Trade 2 exit.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:41 | Loveland 12-yd TD pass | NE 14, CHI 27 | $0.099 | 29.7 | 14/15c |
| Q3 6:32 | Double-bottom confirmation | NE 14, CHI 27 | $0.097 | 36.7 | 15/16c |
| Q3 3:46 | Raridon 30-yd TD pass | NE 21, CHI 27 | $0.212 | 65.9 | 17/18c |
| Q3 3:09 | EXIT Trade 2 +60.8% | NE 21, CHI 27 | $0.260 | 72.9 | 27/28c |
Decision Point: Exit Trade 2 at RSI Overbought
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi NE bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 3:09 | NE 21, CHI 27 | $0.260 | 72.9 | +1.92 | 27/28c |
Known at the time: RSI at 72.9 — overbought — with MACD histogram at +1.92. The game signal had moved from $0.162 to $0.260, a 60.8% gain. Williams's incomplete pass was the play at exit; New England trailed by six with a full quarter remaining.
The decision: Exit Long NE at $0.260. RSI overbought with MACD histogram elevated was the exit signal. The trade closed profitably regardless of the final outcome.
Fourth Quarter: Signal Collapses
Outlook check: Both trades were closed before Q4. The quarter is context only.
Cairo Santos missed a 53-yard field goal at Q4 8:02, briefly lifting the NE signal to $0.233. Dillon Thieneman and Daniel Hardy combined to sack Drake Maye for -10 yards at Q4 7:52, dropping it to $0.164. Christian Barmore sacked Caleb Williams for -10 yards at Q4 1:46, but Santos then converted a 58-yard field goal at Q4 1:34 to extend Chicago's lead to nine (NE 21, CHI 30), collapsing the NE signal to $0.001. Andy Borregales hit a 47-yard field goal at Q4 0:37 to make it 30-24, but time expired. Final: CHI 30, NE 24.
Decision Point: No Trade in Q4
Both trade windows had closed in Q3. The double bottom pattern had already resolved, and no new oversold entry meeting the minimum criteria appeared in Q4. The correct action was to hold no position.
Final Accounting
This New England vs Chicago market analysis Oct 22 produced two completed trades, both Long NE, both exited on RSI overbought signals.
| # | Trade | Entry | Exit | Game Signal return | Kalshi entry (ask) | Kalshi exit (bid) | Kalshi return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long NE | $0.204 (Q1 1:38) | $0.357 (Q2 5:04) | +75.5% | 21c | 36c | +71.4% |
| 2 | Long NE | $0.162 (Q2 1:16) | $0.260 (Q3 3:09) | +60.8% | 18c | 27c | +50.0% |
Average: Game Signal +68.2% | Kalshi +60.7%
The Game Signal return is the model's price; the Kalshi return is what the market paid, buying at the ask and selling at the bid. Trade 1 (+71.4% on Kalshi vs +75.5%) bought at 21c against $0.204 and sold at 36c against $0.357, so Kalshi paid less; Trade 2 (+50.0% on Kalshi vs +60.8%) bought at 18c against $0.162 and sold at 27c against $0.260, so Kalshi paid less.
Double Bottom in This Game
The New England vs Chicago market analysis Oct 22 shows a Double Bottom pattern across the first three quarters at Soldier Field. The pattern describes a team whose game signal dips to an oversold level, recovers, then dips again to a similar low before a second recovery — two separate buys, neither a full V-shape reversal. Here, New England's signal fell to $0.204 after Chicago's 10-0 first-quarter lead, recovered to $0.357 on Drake Maye's touchdown drive, then collapsed again to $0.162 after D'Marco Jackson's interception and Luther Burden III's touchdown catch. The second bottom was confirmed by a bullish RSI divergence at Q3 9:41 — RSI held a higher low even as the game signal made a lower low — before Maye's 30-yard touchdown pass to Eli Raridon triggered the exit. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#double-bottom).
This New England vs Chicago market analysis Oct 22 demonstrates how the double bottom structure can generate two separate profitable entries within a single game, even when the traded team ultimately loses.
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