2026-11-01
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Las Vegas vs New York market analysis Nov 1: The Setup
Asset: Las Vegas Raiders (road underdog) | Opening: $0.487 | Spread: NYJ -1.5 | Kalshi: 45/46c
This Las Vegas vs New York market analysis Nov 1 covers a tight divisional-style matchup at MetLife Stadium, where the Jets entered as slim 1.5-point home favorites at 2-5 on the season. The Raiders came in at 3-4, needing a win to reach .500. Kirk Cousins against Geno Smith set up a quarterback contrast that would define the game's momentum swings.
The Pattern: Underdog Rally — Las Vegas absorbed a deep first-half deficit, entered at a deeply oversold price, and rode a second-half surge to a 38-33 road win.
Going in: The Raiders opened at $0.487, essentially a coin flip despite the spread; a sustained drive by New York to push that signal below $0.30 would create the entry condition.
Who Decided It
- Las Vegas Raiders (4-4): Kirk Cousins went 19-of-26 for 247 yards and three touchdown passes, adding a rushing score; Brock Bowers caught seven passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns.
- New York Jets (2-6): Geno Smith threw for 290 yards and two scores but was sacked twice and threw the game-sealing interception; Jason Sanders made all four field goal attempts yet the Jets couldn't hold a nine-point halftime lead.
First Quarter: Early Equilibrium
Outlook check: The opening $0.487 signal suggested a near-even contest; that held through the first quarter as both teams traded scores without either pulling away.
Jason Sanders opened the scoring with a 21-yard field goal at Q1 12:50, pushing the Raiders' signal to $0.455. Kirk Cousins answered with a 12-yard touchdown pass to Brock Bowers at Q1 7:23, flipping Las Vegas to $0.605 and RSI 68.8. Sanders hit a 36-yarder at Q1 2:13 to trim it back to $0.560, and Will McDonald IV's sack of Cousins at Q1 0:48 closed the quarter with Las Vegas at $0.517, RSI 39.2 — nearly where it started.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi LV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff | LV 0, NYJ 0 | $0.487 | — | 45/46c |
| Q1 12:50 | Sanders 21-yd FG | LV 0, NYJ 3 | $0.455 | — | 42/43c |
| Q1 7:23 | Cousins → Bowers 12-yd TD | LV 7, NYJ 3 | $0.605 | 68.8 | 57/58c |
| Q1 2:13 | Sanders 36-yd FG | LV 7, NYJ 6 | $0.560 | 54.4 | 57/58c |
| Q1 0:48 | McDonald sacks Cousins | LV 7, NYJ 6 | $0.517 | 39.2 | 50/51c |
Decision Point: Hold — No Entry Signal Yet
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi LV bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | LV 7, NYJ 6 | $0.517 | 39.2 | — | 50/51c |
Known at the time: The Raiders led by one, the signal was essentially flat from the open, and RSI sat in neutral territory. No oversold condition had formed.
The decision: Stay out. The signal had not developed a tradeable setup; the Raiders were slight leaders with no technical distress to exploit.
Outlook for the next quarter: A New York scoring run that pushed the Raiders' signal below $0.35 and RSI toward oversold would create the first actionable entry condition.
Second Quarter: The Oversold Setup
Outlook check: The outlook called for a Jets scoring run to create oversold conditions — that materialized quickly and then deepened through the half.
Geno Smith hit Isaiah Williams on an 18-yard touchdown at Q2 10:56, dropping Las Vegas to $0.359 with RSI crashing to 15.8. Dylan Laube answered immediately with a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown at Q2 10:44, bouncing the signal back to $0.530. But Adonai Mitchell's 12-yard touchdown catch at Q2 6:18 put New York back ahead 20-14, pulling the Raiders to $0.350 and RSI 34.1. From there, New York's offense ground toward the red zone while Las Vegas stalled on downs, and the signal kept sliding. Maxx Crosby sacked Smith at Q2 0:59 — a defensive bright spot — but Sanders still hit a 39-yarder at Q2 0:09 to send Las Vegas into halftime down 23-14 at $0.233.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi LV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:56 | Smith → Williams 18-yd TD | LV 7, NYJ 13 | $0.359 | 15.8 | 36/37c |
| Q2 10:44 | Laube 95-yd KR TD | LV 14, NYJ 13 | $0.530 | 56.0 | 36/37c |
| Q2 6:18 | Smith → Mitchell 12-yd TD | LV 14, NYJ 20 | $0.350 | 34.1 | 44/45c |
| Q2 3:58 | ENTRY | LV 14, NYJ 20 | $0.285 | 29.0 | 34/36c |
| Q2 2:00 | Two-minute warning | LV 14, NYJ 20 | $0.201 | 20.2 | 20/21c |
| Q2 0:59 | Crosby sacks Smith | LV 14, NYJ 20 | $0.258 | 43.4 | 24/25c |
| Q2 0:09 | Sanders 39-yd FG | LV 14, NYJ 23 | $0.232 | 37.4 | 24/25c |
Decision Point: Buy Las Vegas at Q2 3:58
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi LV bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 3:58 | LV 14, NYJ 20 | $0.285 | 29.0 | -1.26 | 34/36c |
Known at the time: The Las Vegas vs New York market analysis Nov 1 entry signal fired on a direct snap to Connor Heyward that gained nothing on fourth down — Las Vegas turning the ball over on downs deep in New York territory. The game signal had fallen to $0.285, RSI was at 29.0 (approaching oversold), and the MACD histogram sat at -1.26 with the line well below the signal line. The Raiders trailed 20-14 with roughly four minutes left in the half.
The decision: Long LV at $0.285. The signal had compressed from $0.605 at its first-quarter peak to below $0.30, with RSI on the edge of oversold and the score still within one possession. The risk was a further New York scoring drive; the reward was a Raiders rally from a deeply discounted price.
Outlook for the next quarter: Las Vegas needed to close the gap in the third quarter. A touchdown to start the half would push the signal back above $0.40; a New York score to open would likely push RSI to extreme oversold and test the position.
Third Quarter: The Comeback Builds
Outlook check: The outlook required Las Vegas to score early in the third — Cousins delivered, but New York answered immediately, creating a volatile back-and-forth that kept the position under pressure.
Cousins drove 65 yards in 10 plays, capping it with a 2-yard touchdown pass to Brock Bowers at Q3 9:59 — his second score of the game — lifting the signal to $0.425 and RSI 70.3. A bearish divergence registered there: RSI peaked lower than its prior high, suggesting momentum was not as strong as the price move implied. New York responded in 1:39 with Braelon Allen's 21-yard touchdown run at Q3 8:20, crashing the signal back to $0.218 and triggering a MACD bearish cross. A double-bottom signal fired at Q3 8:15 as the game signal held near its prior low. Cousins then engineered another 10-play, 65-yard drive, scoring himself on a 1-yard keeper at Q3 4:14 to make it 28-30. Tim Keenan III sacked Smith at Q3 3:48, and the quarter ended with Las Vegas at $0.453, RSI 59.4 — the position recovering steadily.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi LV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:59 | Cousins → Bowers 2-yd TD | LV 21, NYJ 23 | $0.425 | 70.3 | 35/36c |
| Q3 8:20 | Allen 21-yd TD run | LV 21, NYJ 30 | $0.218 | 29.6 | 22/23c |
| Q3 4:14 | Cousins 1-yd TD run | LV 28, NYJ 30 | $0.417 | 72.6 | 34/35c |
| Q3 3:48 | Keenan sacks Smith | LV 28, NYJ 30 | $0.478 | 75.7 | 40/41c |
| Q3 0:00 | End of Q3 | LV 28, NYJ 30 | $0.453 | 59.4 | 46/47c |
Decision Point: Hold Through Volatility
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi LV bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 0:00 | LV 28, NYJ 30 | $0.453 | 59.4 | — | 46/47c |
Known at the time: The Raiders had cut the deficit to two points. The signal had recovered from $0.218 back to $0.453, nearly doubling from the entry price. RSI was neutral and rising. The position was profitable but the game was not yet secured.
The decision: Hold. Las Vegas trailed by two with a full quarter remaining, Cousins had shown he could move the ball, and the signal's recovery from the double-bottom confirmed support.
Outlook for the next quarter: A Las Vegas lead change in the fourth would push the signal above $0.60 and begin the exit phase; a New York score to open would test the $0.40 level again.
Fourth Quarter: The Lead Change and Close
Outlook check: The outlook called for a Las Vegas lead change — it arrived at Q4 11:33 and the signal surged as expected.
Cousins hit Jalen Nailor on a 2-yard touchdown at Q4 11:33, giving Las Vegas its first lead since early in the game at 35-30. The signal jumped to $0.716, RSI 80.5 — overbought. New York punted after three plays, and Las Vegas punted back. Smith drove 68 yards in 4:38, but the Jets settled for Jason Sanders' fourth field goal of the game, a 31-yarder at Q4 4:31, cutting it to 35-33. The MACD bullish cross fired at Q4 3:34 as Cousins moved the chains. With 27 seconds left, Matt Gay drilled a 53-yard field goal to make it 38-33. Smith's final desperation pass was intercepted by Jeremy Chinn at Q4 0:14, and the game ended.
| Time | Play | Score | Game Signal | RSI | Kalshi LV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 11:33 | Cousins → Nailor 2-yd TD | LV 35, NYJ 30 | $0.716 | 80.5 | 65/66c |
| Q4 4:31 | Sanders 31-yd FG | LV 35, NYJ 33 | $0.674 | 49.7 | 65/66c |
| Q4 3:34 | MACD bullish cross | LV 35, NYJ 33 | $0.825 | 66.8 | 72/73c |
| Q4 0:27 | Gay 53-yd FG | LV 38, NYJ 33 | $0.999 | 69.9 | 96/97c |
| Q4 0:14 | Chinn INT | LV 38, NYJ 33 | $0.999 | 62.7 | 99/100c |
| Q4 0:00 | EXIT | LV 38, NYJ 33 | $0.950 | 62.8 | 99/100c |
Decision Point: Exit at Game End
| Time | Score | Game Signal | RSI | MACD | Kalshi LV bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:00 | LV 38, NYJ 33 | $0.950 | 62.8 | +0.73 | 99/100c |
Known at the time: The game was over. Las Vegas had won 38-33. The signal closed at $0.950 (the exit price per the trade window), RSI 62.8, MACD histogram positive at +0.73. The Kalshi market had moved to 99/100c.
The decision: Exit Long LV. The game concluded, closing the position at $0.950 against the $0.285 entry for a +233.1% game signal return.
Final Accounting
This Las Vegas vs New York market analysis Nov 1 produced one completed trade with a +233.1% return on the game signal.
| Trade | Entry | Exit | Game Signal return | Kalshi entry (ask) | Kalshi exit (bid) | Kalshi return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long LV (Q2 3:58) | $0.285 | $0.950 (Q4 0:00) | +233.1% | 36c | 99c | +175.0% |
Average: Game Signal +233.1% | Kalshi +175.0%
The Game Signal return is the model's price; the Kalshi return is what the market paid, buying at the ask and selling at the bid. Trade 1 (+175.0% on Kalshi vs +233.1%) bought at 36c against $0.285 and sold at 99c against $0.950, so Kalshi paid less.
Underdog Rally in This Game
This Las Vegas vs New York market analysis Nov 1 illustrates the Underdog Rally pattern at its core. The Underdog Rally occurs when a team priced below its pre-game expectation — here the Raiders opened at $0.487 but fell to $0.285 by mid-second quarter — recovers to win outright, rewarding the long position entered at the discounted price. Las Vegas absorbed a nine-point halftime deficit, scored on three consecutive second-half drives, and sealed the win with Matt Gay's 53-yard field goal and Jeremy Chinn's interception. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#underdog-rally).
The Las Vegas vs New York market analysis Nov 1 confirms that the Underdog Rally entry at $0.285 — with RSI at 29.0 and the MACD histogram negative — captured the full recovery from a deeply discounted price to a winning close.
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