Cincinnati Bengals V-Bottom Recovery: Three Oversold Entries Averaged +94.4% Return

2026-11-01

Login to see the interactive sport charts →

Tennessee vs Cincinnati market analysis Nov 1: The Setup

Asset: Cincinnati Bengals (home favorite) | Opening: $0.855 | Spread: CIN -13.5 | Kalshi: 88/89c

This Tennessee vs Cincinnati market analysis Nov 1 tracks a 13.5-point home favorite that opened at $0.855 and then watched its game signal crater to $0.501 inside the first quarter. The Bengals entered 4-2; the Titans arrived at 1-6, making the spread defensible on paper. What the chart delivered was a multi-stage V-bottom that tested the conviction of any long position holder three separate times.

The Pattern: V-Bottom Recovery — the Bengals' game signal plunged from $0.855 to $0.501 in Q1, recovered to $0.908 in Q3, collapsed again to $0.253 in Q4, then climbed to $0.950 in overtime.

Going in: At $0.855, Cincinnati was priced as a heavy favorite; a buy signal would require the game signal to drop well below that opening price before the spread's implied edge reasserted itself.

---

Who Decided It

• Cincinnati Bengals (5-2): Joe Burrow finished 38-of-48 for 462 yards with five touchdown passes and three interceptions; Tee Higgins caught 10 passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns.
• Tennessee Titans (1-7): Cam Ward threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions, but Amani Hooker's three interceptions off Burrow were ultimately not enough — Tennessee's two-point conversions kept them alive until overtime ran out.

---

First Quarter: Collapse and Entry

Outlook check: The pre-game outlook required a price drop before a buy signal; the drop arrived faster and deeper than the opening implied.

Tennessee opened with a 10-play, 52-yard drive capped by Joey Slye's 46-yard field goal at Q1 10:52, pushing the game signal to $0.819. The Titans then went 67 yards in four plays — Tony Pollard's 40-yard touchdown run at Q1 7:55 sent the signal to $0.668 and RSI to 10.7, an extreme oversold reading. Burrow's deep pass intended for Ja'Marr Chase was intercepted by Amani Hooker at Q1 6:56, dropping the signal further to $0.621 with RSI at 13.9. Tennessee continued to drain the clock; Slye's second field goal at Q1 2:14 made it 13-0 and pushed the signal to $0.546 before RSI exited oversold at Q1 2:23.

Decision Point: Two Entries as RSI Hits Extreme Lows

Trade 1 — Q1 5:57:

Known at the time: Tennessee's no-huddle offense had driven the signal from $0.668 to $0.574 on a Cam Ward completion to Elic Ayomanor for 23 yards. RSI sat at 15.7 — deeply oversold — while the game signal had fallen 28 points from the opening. The MACD histogram was flat at zero. This Tennessee vs Cincinnati market analysis Nov 1 shows the first entry triggered here, with Cincinnati still holding a 13.5-point spread cushion despite trailing 10-0.

The decision: ENTRY — Long CIN at $0.574. The game signal had dropped far enough below the spread-implied price that the oversold RSI reading supported a long position.

Trade 2 — Q1 3:41:

Known at the time: Ward's short pass to Calvin Ridley moved Tennessee to the Cincinnati 15. The signal had slid to $0.501 — essentially a coin flip — with RSI at 10.2, the lowest reading of the game to that point. The spread still implied Cincinnati should be priced well above 50%.

The decision: ENTRY — Long CIN at $0.501. RSI at 10.2 with the game signal at parity against a 13.5-point favorite represented the second entry, adding to the position at a lower price.

Outlook for Q2: Cincinnati needed to score before halftime to begin the recovery; a third Tennessee score would pressure the position further.

---

Second Quarter: First Recovery Leg

Outlook check: The outlook called for a Cincinnati score; the Bengals delivered two touchdowns.

Burrow connected with Ja'Marr Chase for a 30-yard touchdown at Q2 13:20, lifting the signal to $0.687. A Wan'Dale Robinson fumble recovered by Josh Newton at Q2 8:50 gave Cincinnati possession, but Jacob Martin sacked Burrow twice — at Q2 7:36 and Q2 3:12 — and the MACD turned bearish at Q2 3:12 with the signal at $0.631. Cincinnati answered with a nine-play, 67-yard drive: Burrow found Jack Endries for a 1-yard touchdown at Q2 0:20, flipping the lead to 14-13 and pushing the signal to $0.806.

Decision Point: Hold Through the MACD Bearish Cross

Known at the time: The MACD bearish cross at Q2 3:12 coincided with Martin's second sack of Burrow, pushing the signal back to $0.631. The position was still profitable from both entry points.

The decision: Hold Long CIN. The bearish MACD cross was a caution flag, but Cincinnati still led on the scoreboard by halftime and the game signal had recovered substantially from both entry prices.

Outlook for Q3: A sustained lead would push the signal toward $0.85+; another Tennessee score early would retest the position.

---

Third Quarter: Peak and Pullback

Outlook check: The outlook for a signal push toward $0.85+ was met — and exceeded — before a sharp reversal.

Burrow's third interception of the game, caught by Hooker at Q3 13:15, was immediately erased when Boye Mafe sacked Ward and forced a fumble recovered by Dexter Lawrence II. One play later, Burrow hit Tee Higgins for a 17-yard touchdown at Q3 12:25, sending the signal to $0.908 and RSI to 73.7 — overbought. RSI exited overbought at Q3 11:18 ($0.895). Tony Pollard's second touchdown of the game at Q3 7:47, followed by Cam Ward's successful two-point conversion run, tied the game at 21-21 and dropped the signal to $0.792. A Demetrius Knight Jr. safety at Q3 0:46 gave Cincinnati a 23-21 edge heading into Q4.

Decision Point: Hold Through the Tie

Known at the time: The game was tied at 21-21 after Pollard's second touchdown and Ward's two-point conversion. The signal had pulled back from $0.908 to $0.792 but Cincinnati still led 23-21 at quarter's end.

The decision: Hold Long CIN. Both existing positions remained profitable; the safety restored a two-point lead.

Outlook for Q4: A Cincinnati score early in Q4 would push the signal back toward $0.85; a Tennessee score first would retest the $0.50 level.

---

Fourth Quarter: Second Collapse and Third Entry

Outlook check: Tennessee scored first in Q4, and the signal fell harder than the outlook anticipated.

Chase Brown fumbled at Q4 13:40, recovered by Kevin Winston Jr. at the Cincinnati 48. Tennessee converted: Ward found Chimere Dike for an 11-yard touchdown at Q4 11:29, making it 28-23 and dropping the signal to $0.475 with RSI at 16.8. The MACD turned bearish at Q4 13:40. Jacob Martin's third sack of Burrow at Q4 9:26 pushed the signal to $0.417 — the third entry point.

Decision Point: Third Entry After the Sack

Known at the time: Martin's third sack pushed Burrow back 10 yards to the Cincinnati 42. The signal sat at $0.417 with RSI at 25.1 — oversold again — and the MACD histogram at -2.72. Cincinnati trailed by five with 9:26 remaining.

The decision: ENTRY — Long CIN at $0.417. The signal had fallen 43 points from the Q3 peak, RSI was oversold, and Cincinnati still had possession with time to respond.

The Bengals answered: Burrow hit Mike Gesicki for a 25-yard touchdown at Q4 7:13 (MACD turned bullish simultaneously), taking a 29-28 lead. Tennessee responded with Wan'Dale Robinson's 15-yard touchdown catch from Ward at Q4 3:46, plus a successful two-point conversion pass to Gunnar Helm, making it 36-29. The signal collapsed to $0.253. Burrow then drove 81 yards in seven plays, finding Tee Higgins for an 18-yard touchdown at Q4 1:17 to tie at 36-36. The MACD turned bullish again at Q4 1:17. Dexter Lawrence II sacked Ward at Q4 0:32, and the game went to overtime at 50/50.

Decision Point: Hold Into Overtime

Known at the time: The game was tied at 36-36. All three positions were still open; the signal had recovered from $0.253 to $0.500 at the gun.

The decision: Hold all three Long CIN positions into overtime. The signal had recovered from its second deep trough and Cincinnati had momentum after the late touchdown drive.

---

Overtime: Exit

Burrow drove Cincinnati 70 yards in five plays, scrambling left end for a 9-yard touchdown at OT 7:00 to make it 43-36. The signal jumped to $0.907 with RSI at 78.9. Tennessee went three-and-out; Cam Ward's incomplete pass to Elic Ayomanor at OT 5:40 — with the signal at $0.950 and RSI at 82.3 — triggered the exit on all three positions.

Decision Point: Exit All Positions

Known at the time: RSI had climbed to 82.3 — overbought — and the MACD histogram was at +4.45. Tennessee faced fourth down with no timeouts. The signal at $0.950 represented a near-certain Cincinnati win.

The decision: EXIT all Long CIN positions at $0.950. RSI overbought with Tennessee out of downs and timeouts; holding further offered minimal additional upside.

---

Final Accounting

This Tennessee vs Cincinnati market analysis Nov 1 produced three completed long trades, all exited at OT 5:40 when the game signal reached $0.950.

Average: Game Signal +94.4% | Kalshi +53.7%

The Game Signal return is the model's price; the Kalshi return is what the market paid, buying at the ask and selling at the bid. Trade 1 (+45.2% on Kalshi vs +65.5%) bought at 62c against $0.574 and sold at 90c against $0.950, so Kalshi paid less; Trade 2 (+55.2% on Kalshi vs +89.7%) bought at 58c against $0.501 and sold at 90c against $0.950, so Kalshi paid less; Trade 3 (+60.7% on Kalshi vs +128.0%) bought at 56c against $0.417 and sold at 90c against $0.950, so Kalshi paid less.

---

V-Bottom Recovery in This Game

This Tennessee vs Cincinnati market analysis Nov 1 is a clear example of the V-Bottom Recovery pattern. The pattern describes a team's game signal plunging, turning, and climbing back at least 30 points — a V on the chart, bought near the bottom. Here, Cincinnati's signal dropped from $0.855 to $0.501 in Q1, recovered to $0.908 in Q3, then collapsed again to $0.253 in Q4 before climbing to $0.950 in overtime — a double-V structure with three distinct entry opportunities. The full definition is on the [Patterns page](https://www.sportchartz.com/patterns/#v-bottom-recovery).

The Tennessee vs Cincinnati market analysis Nov 1 shows that the deepest entry — Trade 3 at $0.417 after Jacob Martin's third sack of Burrow — delivered the largest return at +128.0%, rewarding traders who held conviction through the second collapse.

Explore more NFL market analysis on SportChartz.